Wednesday, September 25, 2019

I Don't Bet Money in the Prediction Markets Very Often ...

But I just bought 29 shares of "yes" to the question "Will Donald Trump be impeached by year-end 2019?" at 33 cents per share on PredictIt.

The shares will pay $1 each if:

By 11:59:59 p.m. (ET) on December 31, 2019, the full U.S. House of Representatives shall, by simple majority vote, approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump. Neither trial nor conviction by the U.S. Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to cause this market to resolve as Yes.

The shares are actually down from a high of 42 cents on September 23. But I'm convinced they'll go up over the next few days. I might even sell out before the market resolves, depending on the circumstances.

The market for impeachment by the end of Trump's first term is up to 59 cents from a close of 50 cents yesterday. The question is when the impeachment vote passes the House.

As I mention in a previous post, I expect the House to fast-track impeachment and get it done before the end of the year. I then expect the Senate to slow-walk the actual trial.

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