Tuesday, July 31, 2018

Prediction: Manafort Tax Trial


He will not be convicted of all charges. He may not be convicted of any. I'm kind of disappointed that PredictIt doesn't have a more granular set of betting options that reflects what I expect to happen.

Jury selection went quickly, which means there wasn't a whole bunch of voir dire (French for "jury tampering").

Yes, the Alexandria area is strongly Democratic, but Donald Trump did get 21% of the vote in Virginia's 8th US House District, so absent some kind of manipulation in the selection of the pool itself, two or three of the jurors are probably Trump voters.

My bet is that at least one of those two or three will hang the jury on most or all counts because, well, fuck Bob Mueller.

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