Thursday, November 10, 2011

It's Beginning to Look a Lot Like Romney


If I had to place a bet on the 2012 GOP nomination today, my money would be on Mitt Romney. Perry's senior moment in last night's debate was probably the final nail in that coffin.

As a betting man, that kind of saddens me. If Perry had his act together and got the nod, I might put money on the Republicans next November if I could get a 10-point spread.

With Romney, I won't touch that action. I'd set the Republican Electoral College Over-Under at 90, as follows:

Full value -- 53 electoral votes -- for the near-certain Romney carries: Utah, Nevada, Idaho, Texas and Wyoming.

Half value -- 27 of 54 electoral votes -- for the possibles: Florida, Georgia and South Carolina (Georgia if he picks Gingrich as his running mate, Florida if he picks Marco Rubio or Jeb Bush, South Carolina in either case).

... and a 10 electoral vote fudge factor.

Unless there's some kind of major Obama stumble next fall, I'd probably bet the under.

But, of course, things could change between now and Iowa. There's always another surprise just around the corner.

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