Wednesday, October 26, 2005

The waiting game


OK, I admit it. I've been pinging Google News every 20 minutes or so, all day long. If you're a politics junkie, you've been doing the same thing. Mr. Fitzgerald has us all on tenterhooks.

Will there be indictments? How many? Who? Republicans seem to be alternating between pulling their hair out and trying to pretend that it ain't no thang. Democrats aren't disguising their glee -- but they are keeping busy trying to extend the case from the Plame outing all the way to the whole Iraq war rationale.

My predictions (I've made them before, elsewhere):

- Yes, there will be indictments. Almost certainly Libby, possibly Rove, probably not Cheney. Other assorted figures such as National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley may find themselves in court as well.

- The indictments will probably not be for the act of outing Plame. The case on that isn't airtight, and the law is sufficiently vague that it might be difficult to get a conviction. More likely, the indictments will be for obstruction and/or perjury. This investigation has been going on for 20 months. The grand jury is going to want to indict someone for something -- and my bet is that the people who were ... less than forthcoming ... about their roles early on will feel the jury's wrath.

- The wild card is just how political the jury wants to be. If they're really pissed, we might see Cheney, or even Bush, listed as "un-indicted co-conspirators" -- legalese for "we know they did it, but we don't think the prosecutor can get a conviction."

The news story linked above seems to indicate that there won't be an announcement today; the Daily Kos entry linked above seems to indicate that there may be. Another possibility raising its ugly head is that of "sealed" indictments, where we're not told that anyone's getting the hammer (or who that anyone might be) because the prosecutor wants to dig some more or hit one or more of the accused up for plea bargains (or because the prosecutor is an evil bastard and wants to make us cross and irritable). I guess we'll see. As a matter of fact, I'm seeing, right now, before I post this thing. Nope. Nothing. Damn.

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