Super Duper Tuesday GOP primary picks

All right, I've got my mojo ... well, not back, but I've got it: My Florida primary predictions were exact as to the order of outcome, and within 2% for each of the candidates. Let's see if I can turn this into a roll.

For Super Duper Tuesday, there's just no way I can pick percentages, etc. on so many states in anything like a timely manner. For some -- most -- of the Super Duper Tuesday states, I haven't even seen polling data. Here's the basic picture, though:

McCain wins Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Illinois, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Tennessee and West Virginia.

Romney wins Massachusetts (of which he is the former governor), Idaho and Utah (the Mormon vote).

Huckabee wins Arkansas with a combination of evangelical and favorite son votes.

Surprised / Not Surprised

- Surprised if I'm wrong and McCain wins Idaho or Utah. Not surprised if I'm wrong and McCain wins Massachusetts.

- Surprised if I'm wrong and Huckabee wins Georgia. Not surprised if I'm wrong and Huckabee wins Idaho or Kansas, or loses Arkansas. Not surprised if he wins nothing at all.

- Surprised if Paul carries any states. Not surprised if he picks up some delegates, especially in California, or if he places a respectable second in Alaska, New Mexico or Utah.

Bonus pick for tomorrow

Maine is McCain's.

Update policy

I won't change any of these picks between now and the vote (or, it goes without saying, after). They're written in virtual stone and I'll stand or fall with them. However, I may update with percentage predictions and such. I'll either do that down here at the bottom, or in this color if I place them inline in the original post.

Florida: GOP primary prediction

Running a little late here (I wanted to give Kubby's State of the Union address as much time up top as possible), but the usual format -- first my unrealistic October prediction, then my final call.

From October, pre-Huckabee-surge, etc.:

1st - McCain (~55%)
2nd - Romney (~30%)
3rd - Ghouliani (~10%)
4th - Paul (~5%)

My final call:

1st - McCain (~38%)
2nd - Romney (~30%)
3rd - Giuliani (~15%)
4th - Huckabee (~12%)
5th - Paul (~5%)

Surprised / Not Surprised

- Surprised if Romney beats 30%.
- Not surprised if Romney nosedives to 25% or less.

- Surprised if McCain garners an absolute majority.
- Not surprised if McCain breaks 40%.

- Surprised if either Giuliani or Huckabee beats 15%.
- Not surprised if they switch places from my prediction -- Hucks small base looks pretty solid, Giuliani's was built on sand and has completely shattered.

- Surprised if Paul hits 10% or falls below 2%.
- Not surprised if Paul gets as much as 8% or as little as 2%.

From here on out, McCain runs the big-state table. Super Tuesday is anti-climax -- Florida is where the deal is sealed.

I originally called Giuliani to win New York and New Jersey, but he's already disintegrating in both those states and after today their walk away from him will become a stampede. His smartest move would have been to drop out and cut a deal before today. After Florida, McCain doesn't need Giuliani and Giuliani doesn't bring anything with him that can save Romney. The GOP nomination fat lady is warming up. Concert's tonight.

State of the Union 2008

Instead of responding to President Bush's State of the Union Address this year, Libertarian presidential contender Steve Kubby decided to go first. Video up top; full text of the speech, if you prefer it that way, at the Kubby 2008 web site.

In other news:

- Former Reagan White House official -- and economist for the State Department and Congress -- Joe Cobb has endorsed Kubby and joined the campaign as Senior Economic Advisor.

- Kubby will attend and speak at the Libertarian State Leadership Alliance conference in Las Vegas, February 15th-17th, and at the California Libertarian Party state convention in San Diego, February 22nd-24th.