Running a little late here (I wanted to give Kubby's State of the Union address as much time up top as possible), but the usual format -- first my unrealistic October prediction, then my final call.
From October, pre-Huckabee-surge, etc.:
1st - McCain (~55%)
2nd - Romney (~30%)
3rd - Ghouliani (~10%)
4th - Paul (~5%)
My final call:
1st - McCain (~38%)
2nd - Romney (~30%)
3rd - Giuliani (~15%)
4th - Huckabee (~12%)
5th - Paul (~5%)
Surprised / Not Surprised
- Surprised if Romney beats 30%.
- Not surprised if Romney nosedives to 25% or less.
- Surprised if McCain garners an absolute majority.
- Not surprised if McCain breaks 40%.
- Surprised if either Giuliani or Huckabee beats 15%.
- Not surprised if they switch places from my prediction -- Hucks small base looks pretty solid, Giuliani's was built on sand and has completely shattered.
- Surprised if Paul hits 10% or falls below 2%.
- Not surprised if Paul gets as much as 8% or as little as 2%.
From here on out, McCain runs the big-state table. Super Tuesday is anti-climax -- Florida is where the deal is sealed.
I originally called Giuliani to win New York and New Jersey, but he's already disintegrating in both those states and after today their walk away from him will become a stampede. His smartest move would have been to drop out and cut a deal before today. After Florida, McCain doesn't need Giuliani and Giuliani doesn't bring anything with him that can save Romney. The GOP nomination fat lady is warming up. Concert's tonight.
