Thursday, January 31, 2008

Super Duper Tuesday GOP primary picks


All right, I've got my mojo ... well, not back, but I've got it: My Florida primary predictions were exact as to the order of outcome, and within 2% for each of the candidates. Let's see if I can turn this into a roll.

For Super Duper Tuesday, there's just no way I can pick percentages, etc. on so many states in anything like a timely manner. For some -- most -- of the Super Duper Tuesday states, I haven't even seen polling data. Here's the basic picture, though:

McCain wins Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Illinois, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Tennessee and West Virginia.

Romney wins Massachusetts (of which he is the former governor), Idaho and Utah (the Mormon vote).

Huckabee wins Arkansas with a combination of evangelical and favorite son votes.

Surprised / Not Surprised

- Surprised if I'm wrong and McCain wins Idaho or Utah. Not surprised if I'm wrong and McCain wins Massachusetts.

- Surprised if I'm wrong and Huckabee wins Georgia. Not surprised if I'm wrong and Huckabee wins Idaho or Kansas, or loses Arkansas. Not surprised if he wins nothing at all.

- Surprised if Paul carries any states. Not surprised if he picks up some delegates, especially in California, or if he places a respectable second in Alaska, New Mexico or Utah.

Bonus pick for tomorrow

Maine is McCain's.

Update policy

I won't change any of these picks between now and the vote (or, it goes without saying, after). They're written in virtual stone and I'll stand or fall with them. However, I may update with percentage predictions and such. I'll either do that down here at the bottom, or in this color if I place them inline in the original post.

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