Election 2024: Two States That Are Going to Deserve Attention

In 2020, Donald Trump carried North Carolina ... barely. He pulled 49.93% of the vote to Joe Biden's 48.59%.

The third party, independent, and write-in vote totaled 1.48% of the vote, more or less "covering the spread" between the two.

Trump over-performed versus his polling.  In fact, every poll listed at 538 that collected data into November had Biden up by anywhere from 1% to 6%.

So, what's it look like for 2024?

Well, almost every poll listed at 538 (the last one was in December) has Trump up on Biden by a substantial margin, even with RFK Jr.  included.

BUT!

At the moment, it looks like RFK Jr. will be in the race -- North Carolina is one of the states where he's creating a "We the People" party for ballot access purposes (apparently it's easier to get on the ballot there with a party than as an independent).

Another of those states is Texas, which Trump carried by a larger margin than North Carolina, but a smaller margin than you might guess -- 5.58%, with the third party and write-in vote coming in at 1.46%, nowhere near "covering the spread."

If Kennedy does fairly well in those states -- even, say, 5% -- and if the polling indicating that more of his votes come from people who would support Trump than Biden in a two-way contest without Kennedy in the mix is correct, then Democrats have an excellent shot at North Carolina's 15 electoral votes and at least a plausible shot at Texas's 38 electoral votes.

File Under "Trying to Have it Both Ways"

Cinderella story:

[A]ttended San Jacinto College but dropped out because he suffered from what he called "partying syndrome." When he was a teenager police officers allegedly found valium in his possession after a girlfriend allegedly hid the substance in his clothes. He was charged with felony possession of a controlled substance, but the charge was later dropped. He was homeless for a time. He later turned around his life and became a born-again Christian. In 1990, he earned a bachelor's degree in accounting from the University of Houston-Clear Lake. He worked as a computer salesman in Friendswood, Texas.

After which Steve Stockman got elected to Congress for one term, lost his seat in a redistricting-forced runoff, did a bunch of things (including caring for his sick father), and was elected to Congress again in 2012.

Pretty good stuff. It's the kind of story that makes a politician look like more than just a prettyface moneybags. He's been places. Done things. Been down and out and climbed back up.

Now he's running in the GOP primary to unseat US Senator John Cornyn, and he doesn't want you to see this:

... so much so that he claims "grounds to file criminal complaints" against anyone who shows it to you.

Bad call, Steve. You're a public figure. It's a public record. You'd be a lot smarter rolling with the "Cinderella story" angle than running for office as Vexatious Litigation Troll.

[more at memeorandum]