Tuesday, September 09, 2025

Week 1 NFL Results

My picks, labeled green for correct, red for incorrect:

  • Philadelphia Eagles beat Dallas Cowboys
  • Kansas City Chiefs beat Los Angeles Chargers
  • Atlanta Falcons beat Tampa Bay Buccaneers*
  • Cincinnati Bengals beat Cleveland Browns
  • Miami Dolphins beat Indianapolis Colts
  • Las Vegas Raiders beat New England Patriots*
  • Arizona Cardinals beat New Orleans Saints
  • Pittsburgh Steelers beat New York Jets
  • Washington Commanders beat New York Giants
  • Jacksonville Jaguars beat Carolina Panthers
  • Denver Broncos beat Tennessee Titans
  • San Francisco 49ers beat Seattle Seahawks
  • Detroit Lions beat Green Bay Packers
  • Houston Texans beat Los Angeles Rams*
  • Baltimore Ravens beat Buffalo Bills*
  • Minnesota Vikings beat Chicago Bears
Ten right, six wrong. Not terrible, but only one of my upset picks (Raiders v. Patriots) panned out, and I only performed in the 41st percentile of players in ESPN's "Pigskin Pick'em" game.

What did I learn?

Well, the Eagles and the Steelers were less formidable than I expected. The Eagles only bested the Cowboys by four points, and the Steelers only beat the Jets by two.

Of course, when making my picks, I wasn't really considering the fact that the Steelers went with worn-out has-been Aaron Rodgers at quarterback instead of signing a quality player. I just said "oh, the Jets? Unless they're playing the Panthers that outcome is predictable." If you're only coming up two points on the Jets, you're already looking rough for the rest of the season.

But I expected the Eagles to end their game with 14 points or more on the Cowboys. This was the Super Bowl champion team playing a team that went out in last year's wild card playoff round.

The Dolphins and Lions both shit the bed contrary to expectations (77% had the Dolphins picked to beat the Colts and 72% had the Lions whipping Green Bay).

Game one does not the season make, and I kicked off my season picks without a lot of study. I'll be putting a little more into it now as the likelihoods take more shape.

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