Saturday, August 31, 2019

The Latest on Dorian ...

"Hurricane Dorian threat to Carolinas grows as likelihood of direct hit on Florida decreases."

Not out of the woods, exactly ... at the moment it looks like the eye of the thing will probably head north off the Florida coast, probably producing severe storms even as far inland as I am. But probably doesn't mean very much. I'm still well within the predictive "cone."

The difference I'm seeing at the moment is a slightly higher probability of one or two, versus four or five, days without electricity, a slightly lower probability of various trees crushing my trailer like a bug, etc. So we're still planning for living without electricity, possibly bugging out to safer shelter, etc.

This is actually the part I hate worst when thinking of hurricanes versus tornadoes or earthquakes. With the latter two, you don't have a week to prepare, but you also don't have a week to worry and ponder uncertainties. The latter two are over in seconds, minutes, or hours and if they do hit you chances are everything's just fine 20 miles away, instead of everything for 100 miles being dark.

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