I'm not setting odds, but my gut reaction is that the chances are good, and that they just went up with the death of a Capitol Hill police officer (a few of the rabble getting croaked doesn't count for as much as one of the regime's own troops).
That Democrats would vote to impeach in the House and convict in the Senate is a given. The question is whether 17 Republican Senators would vote to convict. And I think they might, for the simple reason that they really, really, really need to get as much distance between themselves and Trump as possible, and voting to convict is their best chance to semi-convincingly do that.
Alternatively, if vice-president Mike Pence and eight cabinet secretaries act to invoke the 25th Amendment's incapacity clause, a number of Republicans would probably communicate their approval of that, for the same reason.
Until Wednesday, a few Republicans were hoping to position themselves as Trump's heir apparent, in ways including but not limited to objecting to Congress's electoral vote certification. Almost all of them would now cross the street to avoid being seen with Trump.
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