Tuesday, February 08, 2022

Some Thoughts on Gerrymandering

The Supreme Court is allowing Alabama's regime to move forward with a congressional redistricting map while it hears and decides the suit against that map. Not permanently. But you'd think it was the end of the world, or at least the return of Jim Crow. Here's the supposed issue:

The order pauses an opinion by a panel of three judges that held that the Alabama map likely violates Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act because it only includes one district where Black voters have the opportunity to elect a candidate of their choice.

I find both the map and the complaint remarkably, well, racist.

Both seem to assume that the only thing that matters, or should matter, to black and non-black voters when choosing public officials is race. The supporters of the map seem to be going out of their way to ensure that only one district has a black majority, and the opponents of the map want it altered to ensure that at least two districts have black majorities. And of course the historical trend is that in southern states district electorates tend to vote for one or the other party based on racial demographics, so the map is designed to delivere only one, rather than at least two, Democratic US Representatives from Alabama. 

Should women get a given number of female majority districts? How about electricians? Philatelists?

Why assume that only black voters will vote for black candidates, or that black voters will only vote for black candidates, or the same thing of whites, that race is the supreme, essential characteristic that drives, or should drive, political decisions, or that if it is such a characteristic it should be humored and catered to rather than ignored?

As an anarchist, of course, I'm agin Congress anyway.

But if we're going to do this, I'd prefer to see it done one of two ways:

  1. Districts drawn by an open source, population-density based algorithm that starts at a random corner of the state and works its way to the opposite corner drawing districts of equal population without regard to race, sex/gender, profession, party registration of voters, or stamp collection size. Credit where credit is due: I remember reading that Robert Bork (of failed SCOTUS nomination fame) recommended a system like that when, as a lower court judge, he somehow got asked to suggest a settlement proposition for a gerrymandering case.
  2. No districts -- all US Representatives elected at large by the entire population of the state, using either ranked choice or approval voting.

My Final NFL Pick of the 2021-22 Season ...

... is the Bengals to beat the Rams in the Super Bowl.

There's no underlying data to support this pick. I haven't even looked at stats, and my understanding on casual notice is that those stats fairly heavily support a Rams victory prediction.

I'm not going big here. I've got the Bengals at 53% to win.

Why pick the Bengals at all? Three reasons that don't make any sense as a way of producing rational predictions:

  1. I hate the fucking Rams. I hate them with a passion. They screwed over my former hometown, St. Louis, leaving in violation of their contractual obligations after the area's taxpayers built them a beautiful domed stadium, because the area's taxpayers declined to build them another beautiful domed stadium before the first one was paid off. Fuck them.
  2. I've just got a gut feeling that the game is going to be an all-out quarterback duel and that Josh Burrow is going to out-class Matthew Stafford.
  3. My neighbor -- the one who died last week -- was a Bengals fan. Our last conversation was me letting her know which network to turn her hospital TV to to watch the AFC championship. I was pulling for the Chiefs, of course, but I'm glad she got to see her team win a spot in the Super Bowl right before things went downhill in a big way. And if there's an afterlife and, and if that afterlife comes with an NFL Season Pass cable package, I'd like her to be able to watch them win the game.
For the season and post-season up to now, I've got a cumulative score of 83.3 points in FiveThirtyEight's NFL forecasting game, putting me in the 61st percentile among all players. The outcome of the Super Bowl will change that score by a gain of 5.8 points if the Bengals win and a loss of 6.2 points if the Rams win, and that probably won't change my percentile performance much.

Sunday, February 06, 2022

There's a Reason for the Light Blogging ...

... and it's not a happy one.

On Friday (January 28th), our neighbor was told by her home health care provider, who didn't like her vital signs, that she needed to go to the emergency room. It went downhill from there, and she died on Thursday.

For the last few years, Tamara and I have been very involved in her life -- doing most of her grocery shopping, transporting her to medical appointments, etc. -- and Tamara was her medical proxy. So it's been a busy week-plus, including the last couple of days of helping her children and brother go through her belongings and start wrapping up her affairs.

Her name was Ruth, and she was a wonderful lady. My last conversation with her was by phone, letting her know what hospital TV channel to watch the AFC championship on. She was a Bengals fan. I'm a Chiefs fan. But I'm glad she got to see her Bengals win a Super Bowl slot for the first time since 1988 before things got really bad.

Anyway, things should be back to "normal" soon, except that I'll no longer be spending several afternoons a week sitting across her dining room table from her, having enjoyable chats. I'm going to miss that a lot.