Monday, October 28, 2024

Travis Kelce: Broken Down, Distracted, or Under-Utilized?

Yesterday (on National Tight Ends Day), Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce scored his 75th career touchdown. Among tight ends, he now places fifth in NFL history on the "most career touchdowns" statistic.

It was also his first touchdown of the season.

I've seen a lot of speculation that Kelce is finally worn out and at the end of his career, or distracted by his acting aspirations and famous relationship, or that the Chiefs are just "under-utilizing" him.

I'm not going to try to convince you that 35-year-old Kelce in functionally equivalent to 25-year-old Kelce. Yes, he is moving toward the end of his career. His job involves getting hit, hard and frequently, by very large muscular men. You can only do that for so long before your body rebels. And of course, age in general takes a toll on speed, reflexes, etc. But he's not broken down. He's still insanely capable.

I doubt a football player of his caliber lets movie ambitions or romantic involvements distract him very much when he's on the field. He's still showing he's insanely capable.

And no, he's not being "under-utilized." He's being fully utilized based on the team's situation.

When Travis Kelce is on the field, there are two possible team situations.

One is that he gets the full attention of at least two of the other team's defenders -- meaning that other Chiefs offensive players are less covered, more open, and able to get yards and scores.

The other is that he gets regular instead of intense coverage from defenders -- in which case he gets the ball and moves it for big yards and/or scores.

The Chiefs' play-callers -- coach Andy Reid, offensive coordinator Matt Nagy, and quarterback Patrick Mahomes -- keep a close eye on which situation is which. When they see Kelce getting a lot of attention, they seize the opportunity to target other players for better results. When their opponents start re-focusing away from Kelce, he gets the ball and does great things with it.

There's a third element that affects that balance:

The Chiefs are trying to (and look like they're in good position to -- they're the only undefeated NFL team at this point in the season) return to, and win, the Super Bowl for a third consecutive time. If they manage it, they'll be the first NFL team to ever do so.

They want Kelce healthy and un-injured for the post-season, so it makes sense right now to really lean into the "let them cover the hell out of him ... but make them tackle other people" side of things.

There's a non-trivial possibility that this will be Kelce's final season. I kind of doubt it, but it's possible. The Chiefs want that season to end with ol' Number 87 putting points on playoff and Super Bowl scoreboards, not sitting on the sidelines with a torn ACL from an October or November game that, win or lose, won't likely affect their chances of making the playoffs.

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