Friday, October 30, 2020

Why I'm Still Confident Biden Will Carry Arizona

Arizona is all tied up in the RealClearPolitics average. Trump at +4 in the latest Rasmussen poll, but my model, the history, and the details on that Rasmussen poll all leave me still fairly confident that Biden will take the state.

Close polls are bad news for the incumbent party. The incumbent has had three years longer to campaign as his party's nominee-apparent than the challenger. If he hasn't closed the deal by now, there's no particular reason to believe he's going to.

Lower expectations of third party votes are also bad news for the incumbent. Third party candidates knocked down about 5.5% of the Arizona vote in 2016; I'll be surprised to see them hit 3% this year, and whatever third party voters disagree on, they tend to agree that the party in power sucks. More of them are going to desert their third party of choice for Biden than for Trump.

People who have already voted are Biden +7 in the Rasmussen numbers -- and those who have already voted are by definition FAR more likely TO vote. The people who haven't voted yet may get around to it, or they may not.

Finally Rasmussen, while not terrible pollsters, have an historical polling bias that tends to favor Republican candidates versus actual outcomes.

I don't expect a Biden blow-out in Arizona, but I still expect a Biden victory in Arizona.

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