Thursday, June 13, 2019

Cui Bono?/Occam's Razor -- Gulf of Oman Edition

Not every attack is a "false flag" event. Most attacks almost certainly aren't.

But they do happen. And the attacks on tankers in the Gulf of Oman last month and today seem to me pass two screening criteria for thinking there might well be "false flag" fuckery afoot.

  1. Cui Bono? That is, who benefits? The Iranian regime doesn't seem to want war with the US, Saudi Arabia, and friends. The Trump regime keeps pushing for war with Iran, then backing off. The Saudi regime might suffer temporarily in such a war, but if the US "won" the war that would likely take Iranian oil off the world market for longer than Saudi oil, and reduce Iran's influence in the region, both of which the Saudi regime wants. And the Israeli regime has a continuing interest in seeing Muslim regimes fight each other rather than gang up on it.

  2. Occam's Razor. That is, the explanation requiring the fewest assumptions is most likely to be correct. So, is there some deep, complex Iranian plan in which bringing down the military ire of the US and its allies on its own head by ineffectually attacking tankers then denying it somehow produces an as yet unknown victory condition? Or is this exactly what it looks like -- an attempt by the US and/or the Saudis and/or the Israelis to manufacture an excuse for war?

How long until we're presented with some bodies conveniently found lying outside Sender Gleiwitz in Polish Army uniforms? And will those bodies turn out to have come to Sender Gleiwitz alive from Poland or dead from Dachau?

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