Tuesday, November 08, 2016

Election 2016: My Prediction vs. Actual Results

POST EXPLAINER, ADDED ~11am Eastern: This post will be updated through the day as the spirit moves. Some bloggers put updates at the top, so everything is reverse chronology. I'm one of those bloggers who puts updates at the bottom, so if you're coming back and trying to catch up, scroll down. And hey, comments are welcome. To the extent that there's KN@PPSTER "election coverage," it will all be found in this post unless something just over the top happens that absolutely requires a separate bit - TLK]

9am Eastern: Here's a screen shot of my state-by-state prediction for the 2016 US presidential election -- that Donald Trump will carry every state Mitt Romney carried in 2012, plus Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida (you can drum up your own map at RealClearPolitics):

My friend Darcy Richardson's prediction is slightly different in that he has Trump losing North Carolina but carrying Wisconsin. I think those are our only differences, but I could be wrong.

We're probably both wrong on one state. As of the most recent polling, Iowa looks like it's going to go to Trump rather than to Clinton. But I'm not making any last-minute changes. Right or wrong, I made my prediction and we're going to see how right or wrong it was.

I'll update this post during the day and evening, assuming there's something worth updating it for. And at the bottom, where you can already see abbreviations for each state set up, I will update as I see them called for one candidate or the other (some of them possibly tomorrow if I crap out and go to bed before we hear results).

Update, 10:45am: A few days ago I made my predictions regarding third party performance over at Independent Political Report. Here they are:

Gary Johnson (Libertarian Party): 2.3% +/- 0.3%
Jill Stein (Green Party): 1.9% +/- 0.3%
Darrell Castle (Constitution Party): 0.5% +/- 0.2%
Evan McMullin ("Never Trump" Republican): 23% +/- 1% in Utah

I didn't try to predict how McMullin will do in the 10 other states where he's on the ballot. I'm guessing low single digits in all of them, but it's hard to tell.

Update, 12:45pm: Reuters is reporting that "Banks warn clients to brace for FX volatility after U.S. vote." The idea being that "the gap between buying and selling prices that determines the cost of trading [is] expected to widen sharply if Donald Trump were to win." Are the banks a little less certain of a Clinton victory than e.g. the prediction markets?

Update, 3:10pm: This blog usually racks up around a thousand page views per day. As of mid-afternoon, it is approaching TEN thousand page views today. Welcome to KN@PPSTER, new readers! If you like what you see here, feel free to poke around, and also to check out my podcast, the libertarian op-ed mill I run, and the daily email newsletter I publish.

Update, 3:20pm: I wonder if I'm having a case of confirmation bias today. That Reuters story mentioned above perked my ears up. Then a couple of minutes ago I was walking past the TV and heard the MSNBC anchor say that when they come back a reporter will be talking about "whether turnout is strong enough to keep Hillary Clinton's hopes alive." Is that a perception shift? It seems to me that usually phrases like "hopes alive" are said about an underdog, not a favorite.

Update, 7:01pm: Polls are beginning to close in the Eastern time zone. I'll start filling in states as MSNBC calls them, way down at the bottom, without comment up here except when there's something to actually talk about.

Update, 7:20pm: MSNBC just announced very early numbers from Florida. Trump 59%, Clinton 30%. Those numbers are already changing according to Politico. As I type this, Trump 50.4%, Clinton 47.1%, Gary Johnson 1.8%, Jill Stein 0.5%, Darrell Castle and Rocky de la Fuente 0.1% each. Looks like the state is going to swing back and forth all night and it may be a nail-biter.

Update, 10:20pm: As I write this, MSNBC is calling Ohio for Trump but has not called Florida and North Carolina yet. They are looking good for Trump. Michigan also looks like it's going to go for Trump as I predicted, but that's not quite as solid. Pennsylvania hasn't been called for Clinton yet, but I'm thinking it's probably going to go with her. I'm looking like 4 for 5 in those states on my predictions. I'm going to go sleep for two hours and come back. Hey, dL, are you as confident in a Clinton win as you have been up to now?

Update, 11:22pm: Couldn't sleep for all the bellyaching in the other room (I left MSNBC on). At present, of the states that MSNBC has actually called, I am 37 for 37 on my predictions. I'm expect it will turn out that I was wrong on Iowa and possibly Wisconsin (I picked them both for Clinton, they're looking like Trump states), as well as quite likely Pennsylvania.

Update, 11:35pm: Florida goes for Trump. Just like I said it would. Geez ... if you people would just listen to me we wouldn't have to stay up all night counting votes, would we?

Update, 12:02am: Finally my first bad pick. I had Iowa down for Clinton. Goes for Trump.

Update, 12:25am: Wow, I missed it -- some time in the last 24 hours or so, this blog passed 1 million page views since I started using Google stats to keep track (Sitemeter crapped out at nearly a million visits several years ago).

Update, 1:55am: MSNBC has not called Pennsylvania for Trump yet. However, Politico, The Hill, and the Washington Post all have. So I'm going to call it as well. MSNBC is just milking it. With 99.3% of precincts reporting, Trump is up by 2.2%, about 75,000 votes. Trump is now six electoral votes short of 270 and victory.

Update, 5:14am: OK, had to crap out. I see that MSNBC finally called Pennsylvania and Wisconsin (and, therefore, the election) for Trump, with New Hampshire, Michigan, Minnesota, and Arizona still up in the air. Of the states where the winner is known, I predicted 44 of 46 accurately.

I'm under the impression I had a better predictive outing than most pollsters, pundits, and analysts this year. That and five bucks will get me an iced white chocolate mocha latte at Starbucks. But you know I'm going to brag about it for the next two to four years, right?

State-by-state results:

AK -- My Prediction: Trump | Actual: Trump ✓
AL -- My Prediction: Trump | Actual: Trump ✓
AZ -- My Prediction: Trump | Actual: ?
AR -- My Prediction: Trump | Actual: Trump  ✓
CA -- My Prediction: Clinton | Actual: Clinton ✓
CO -- My Prediction: Clinton | Actual: Clinton ✓
CT -- My Prediction: Clinton | Actual: Clinton ✓
DE -- My Prediction: Clinton | Actual: Clinton ✓
FL -- My Prediction: Trump | Actual: Trump  ✓
GA -- My Prediction: Trump | Actual: Trump  ✓
HI -- My Prediction: Clinton | Actual: Clinton ✓
ID -- My Prediction: Trump | Actual: Trump  ✓
IL -- My Prediction: Clinton | Actual: Clinton ✓
IN -- My Prediction: Trump | Actual: Trump 
IA -- My Prediction: Clinton | Actual: Trump 
KS -- My Prediction: Trump | Actual: Trump ✓
KY -- My Prediction: Trump | Actual: Trump
LA -- My Prediction: Trump | Actual: Trump ✓
ME -- My Prediction: Clinton | Actual: Clinton ✓ (Note: Trump gets 1 electoral vote, Clinton 3; I did not predict the split)
MD -- My Prediction: Clinton | Actual: Clinton ✓
MA -- My Prediction: Clinton | Actual: Clinton ✓
MI -- My Prediction: Trump | Actual: ?
MN -- My Prediction: Clinton | Actual: ?
MS -- My Prediction: Trump | Actual: Trump ✓
MO -- My Prediction: Trump | Actual: Trump  ✓
MT -- My Prediction: Trump | Actual: Trump ✓
NE -- My Prediction: Trump | Actual: Trump ✓
NV -- My Prediction: Clinton | Actual: Clinton ✓
NH -- My Prediction: Clinton | Actual: ?
NJ -- My Prediction: Clinton | Actual: Clinton ✓
NM -- My Prediction: Clinton | Actual: Clinton ✓
NY -- My Prediction: Clinton | Actual: Clinton ✓
NC -- My Prediction: Trump | Actual: Trump  ✓
ND -- My Prediction: Trump | Actual: Trump ✓
OH -- My Prediction: Trump | Actual: Trump  ✓
OK -- My Prediction: Trump | Actual: Trump 
OR -- My Prediction: Clinton | Actual: Clinton ✓
PA -- My Prediction: Trump | Actual: Trump ✓
RI -- My Prediction: Clinton | Actual: Clinton ✓
SC -- My Prediction: Trump | Actual: Trump
SD -- My Prediction: Trump | Actual: Trump ✓
TN -- My Prediction: Trump | Actual: Trump ✓
TX -- My Prediction: Trump | Actual: Trump ✓
UT -- My Prediction: Trump | Actual: Trump ✓
VT -- My Prediction: Clinton | Actual: Clinton
VA -- My Prediction: Clinton | Actual: Clinton ✓
WA -- My Prediction: Clinton | Actual: Clinton ✓
WV -- My Prediction: Trump | Actual: Trump
WI -- My Prediction: Clinton | Actual: Trump 
WY -- My Prediction: Trump | Actual: Trump ✓

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