Thursday, November 01, 2012

US Senate Elections Handicapping


My US Senate outcome predictions for next week. Sorry to disappoint anyone expecting really outrageous picks. A couple of these are a little risky, but nothing way far out.

Arizona -- Flake (R) beats Carmona (D) [Republican Hold]
California -- Feinstein (D) beats Emken (R) [Democratic Hold]
Connecticut -- Murphy (D) beats McMahon (R) [Democratic Hold]
Delaware -- Carper (D) beats Wade (R) [Democratic Hold]
Florida -- Nelson (D) beats Mack (R) [Democratic Hold]
Hawaii -- Hirono (D) beats Lingle (R) [Democratic Hold]
Indiana -- Donnelly (D) beats Mourdock (R) [Democratic Pickup]
Maine -- King (I) beats Summers (R) and Dill (D) [de facto Democratic Pickup]
Maryland -- Cardin (D) beats Bongino (R) [Democratic Hold]
Massachusetts -- Warren (D) beats Brown (R) [Democratic Pickup]
Michigan -- Stabenow (D) beats Hoekstra (R) [Democratic Hold]
Minnesota -- Klobuchar (D) beats Bills (R) [Democratic Hold]
Mississippi -- Wicker (R) beats Gore (D) [Republican Hold]
Missouri -- McCaskill (D) beats Akin (R) [Democratic Hold]
Montana -- Tester (D) beats Rehberg (R) [Democratic Hold]
Nebraska -- Fischer (R) beats Kerrey (D) [Republican Pickup]
Nevada -- Berkley (D) beats Heller (R) [Democratic Pickup]
New Jersey -- Menendez (D) beats Kyrillos (R) [Democratic Hold]
New Mexico -- Heinrich (D) beats Wilson (R) [Democratic Hold]
New York -- Gillibrand (D) beats Long (R) [Democratic Hold]
North Dakota -- Berg (R) beats Heitcamp (D) [Republican Pickup]
Ohio --  Brown (D) beats Mandel (R) [Democratic Hold]
Pennsylvania -- Casey (D) beats Smith (R) [Democratic Hold]
Rhode Island -- Whitehouse (D) beats Hinckley (R) [Democratic Hold]
Tennessee --  Corker (R) beats Clayton (D) [Republican Hold]
Texas -- Cruz (R) beats Sadler (D) [Republican Hold]
Utah -- Hatch (R) beats Howell (D) [Republican Hold]
Vermont -- Sanders (I) beats MacGovern (R) [de facto Democratic Hold]
Virginia -- Kaine (D) beats Allen (R) [Democratic Hold]
Washington -- Cantwell (D) beats Baumgartner (R) [Democratic Hold]
West Virginia -- Manchin (D) beats Raese (R) [Democratic Hold]
Wisconsin -- Baldwin (D) beats Thompson (R) [Democratic Hold]
Wyoming -- Barrasso (R) beats Chestnut (D) [Republican Hold]

So a net Democratic pickup of one seat or two seats (depending on whether we count Maine's King as a de facto Democrat), unless West Virginia's Manchin switches parties after the election.

I guess I should throw in my presidential prediction, too, as I don't think I've really done so here (but I have elsewhere). Obama will win in the electoral college with a minimum of 290 votes to Romney's 248. He may notch up as high as 334 to 204 (332 if Florida and Virginia slide out of the Romney column; 334 in the less likely event that it's Florida and North Carolina).

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