So ... is he? Here's my cui bono argument for the proposition:
- The "birther" demographic leans heavily Republican. According to a recent CNN poll (PDF here -- h/t Libertarian [sic] Republican), 43% of Republicans believe that President Barack Obama was definitely or probably born in another country, versus 11% of Democrats and 23% of independents. If those numbers hold anything like steady, "birther" talking points will play far better in the GOP primaries than in the general election. Even if the Republican GOP nominee isn't a "birther," he or she will have spent months being forced to talk about the subject in public, and that will shave points off his or her potential performance in November of 2012.
- So, up pops Donald Trump -- a political dilettante and corporate welfare queen with multiple bankruptcies under his belt, who's never going to get within a mile of the Oval Office unless it's for some kind of PR stunt, but who suddenly loves to talk about where Barack Obama may or may not have been born -- styling himself a prospective Republican presidential candidate.
Who benefits from Trump's candidacy and "birther" obsession? President Barack Obama, that's who.
From a circumstantial angle, Trump's constant entanglement with investment bankers -- who seem to be Obama's best friends, based on their campaign contributions and his cabinet appointment choices -- looks pretty suspicious. Did a favor get called in, or a threat made, to put The Donald in "birther"-fueled campaign mode? Inquiring minds want to know.
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