Tuesday, November 03, 2020

Election Night Open Thread w/Prediction vs. Reality Goodness


So, here's my prediction from October 11:


I'll try to keep up with states (as "called" by some medium or network I haven't picked yet), for as long as I stay awake, and as they come in ... which means this post may actually be updated for several days if there's recount/lawsuit fuckery.

"Open thread" means I'd love to see ongoing discussion in comments as the night proceeds. 

A legend for the accounting below -- Green means I called the state correctly. Red means I blew it. I'm using Politico's results page as my source.

Alabama MY CALL: Trump  | ACTUAL RESULT: TRUMP
Alaska MY CALL: Trump  | ACTUAL RESULT: TRUMP
Arizona MY CALL: Biden  | ACTUAL RESULT: BIDEN
Arkansas MY CALL: Trump  | ACTUAL RESULT: TRUMP
California MY CALL: Biden  | ACTUAL RESULT: BIDEN
Colorado MY CALL: Biden  | ACTUAL RESULT: BIDEN
Connecticut MY CALL: Biden  | ACTUAL RESULT: BIDEN
Delaware MY CALL: Biden  | ACTUAL RESULT: BIDEN
District of Columbia MY CALL: Biden  | ACTUAL RESULT: BIDEN
Florida MY CALL: Biden  | ACTUAL RESULT: TRUMP
Georgia MY CALL: Trump  | ACTUAL RESULT: BIDEN
Hawaii MY CALL: Biden  | ACTUAL RESULT: BIDEN
Idaho MY CALL: Trump  | ACTUAL RESULT: TRUMP
Illinois MY CALL: Biden  | ACTUAL RESULT: BIDEN
Indiana MY CALL: Trump  | ACTUAL RESULT: TRUMP
Iowa MY CALL: Trump  | ACTUAL RESULT: TRUMP
Kansas MY CALL: Trump  | ACTUAL RESULT: TRUMP
Kentucky MY CALL: Trump  | ACTUAL RESULT: TRUMP
Louisiana MY CALL: Trump  | ACTUAL RESULT: TRUMP
Maine MY CALL: Biden Statewide, Trump District 2  | ACTUAL RESULT: BIDEN STATEWIDE, TRUMP DISTRICT 2
Maryland MY CALL: Biden  | ACTUAL RESULT: BIDEN
Massachusetts MY CALL: Biden  | ACTUAL RESULT: BIDEN
Michigan MY CALL: Biden  | ACTUAL RESULT: BIDEN
Minnesota MY CALL: Biden  | ACTUAL RESULT: BIDEN
Mississippi MY CALL: Trump  | ACTUAL RESULT: TRUMP
Missouri MY CALL: Trump  | ACTUAL RESULT: TRUMP
Montana MY CALL: Trump  | ACTUAL RESULT: TRUMP
Nebraska MY CALL: Trump Statewide, Biden District 2  | ACTUAL RESULT: TRUMP STATEWIDE, BIDEN DISTRICT 2
Nevada MY CALL: Biden  | ACTUAL RESULT: BIDEN
New Hampshire MY CALL: Biden  | ACTUAL RESULT: BIDEN
New Jersey MY CALL: Biden  | ACTUAL RESULT: BIDEN
New Mexico MY CALL: Biden  | ACTUAL RESULT: BIDEN
New York MY CALL: Biden  | ACTUAL RESULT: BIDEN
North Carolina MY CALL: Trump  | ACTUAL RESULT: TRUMP
North Dakota MY CALL: Trump  | ACTUAL RESULT: TRUMP
Ohio MY CALL: Trump  | ACTUAL RESULT: TRUMP
Oklahoma MY CALL: Trump  | ACTUAL RESULT: TRUMP
Oregon MY CALL: Biden  | ACTUAL RESULT: BIDEN
Pennsylvania MY CALL: Biden  | ACTUAL RESULT: BIDEN
Rhode Island MY CALL: Biden  | ACTUAL RESULT: BIDEN
South Carolina MY CALL: Trump  | ACTUAL RESULT: TRUMP
South Dakota MY CALL: Trump  | ACTUAL RESULT: TRUMP
Tennessee MY CALL: Trump  | ACTUAL RESULT: TRUMP
Texas MY CALL: Trump  | ACTUAL RESULT: TRUMP
Utah MY CALL: Trump  | ACTUAL RESULT: TRUMP
Vermont MY CALL: Biden  | ACTUAL RESULT: BIDEN
Virginia MY CALL: Biden  | ACTUAL RESULT: BIDEN
Washington MY CALL: Biden  | ACTUAL RESULT: BIDEN
West Virginia MY CALL: Trump  | ACTUAL RESULT: TRUMP
Wisconsin MY CALL: Biden  | ACTUAL RESULT: BIDEN
Wyoming MY CALL: Biden  | ACTUAL RESULT: Biden

Update, 8:27pm EST: Fifteen states in, but none of the "battleground" states that weren't easily predictable (I got all 15 right). Florida's running tight, and I may have blown that call.

Update, 10:30pm EST:  So far, I'm 25 for 25, based on states that Politico has called -- but at least one of those states, Virginia, seems at the moment to be going against the call. And the real "battlegrounds" still aren't in. I'm going to bed. And frankly, I don't think we'll be very sure who won when I get up in about seven hours. See you then!

Update, 5:50am EST: With 44 states called, I'm 43 for 44. But of course the one I blew is a big one (Florida), and the ones that haven't been called yet (Alaska, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin) will be decisive.

Update, 2:35pm EST: Associated Press has called Wisconsin for Biden, but Politico isn't showing that yet, so I'll wait to mark it up.

Update, 4:50pm EST: CNN and NBC have called Michigan for Biden, but Politico isn't showing that result yet, so I'll wait to mark it up. If those last two calls are correct, it's all over but the litigation. I'm still interested in how Pennslyvania and Georgia go, though, because I've got a PredictIt bet on Biden winning by 100-149 electoral votes.

Update, 8:30am EST Friday: If things hold per current counts, I will have predicted 47 of 50 states correctly. I've already blown Florida. Current counts say that Pennsylvania and Georgia are going the opposite of my predictions. But I expect Pennsylvania to end up going for Biden, and Georgia may still pull it out for Trump. If one of those two things happen, I'll be 48 for 50, just like the last two elections. If both things happen, I'll be 49 for 50.

Update, 9am EST Friday: 30 minutes ago,  I wrote "I expect Pennsylvania to end up going for Biden." And then ... Biden overtakes Trump in Pennsylvania vote count. For why, see my Wednesday "bellwether" post.

Update, 1:05pm EST Saturday: The last three uncalled states are Alaska, Georgia, and North Carolina. So far, my predictions have proven accurate in 46 of 47 states called. I expect to also be proven correct in Alaska and North Carolina, for 48 of 50.

Update, 10:41am EST December 2: I waited out most of the litigation/recount stuff before "calling" the last few states. Final result, 48 out of 50 for the third time in a row.

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