Wednesday, November 04, 2020

Checking My Pennsylvania Bellwether


 In a comment about a year and a half ago, I wrote:

Take Erie County, which Trump won by about 2,000 votes in 2016 with the Democrats only getting 58,000 votes. Trump got the same number of votes there in 2016 as Romney got in 2012. It was the Democrats who were missing in 2016. In 2012, there were 177,000 votes cast and 93,000 instead of 58,000 of them were Democratic. That county alone would add 35,000 votes to the Democratic total in the state if the Democrats get their voters to the polls.

So, what's Erie County looking like right now (source link)?

Trump: 56,471
Biden: 41,888
Jorgensen: 1,472

Not looking good for Biden, right?


AND! In the mail balloting so far, Biden's beating Trump by nearly 5 to 1.

If that ratio holds constant, Biden will get more than 29,000 more votes, and Trump will only get fewer than 6,000.

And if the rest of Pennsylvania looks similar vis a vis numbers of uncounted mail ballots and Biden advantage in mail voting, Biden will carry the state.

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