Sunday, October 11, 2020

My 2020 Presidential Election Prediction, State By State


The changing dynamics kept making me want to put this off, and I was planning to wait for October 15. But I don't think there are any predictable changes still in the offing, so it's time to pull the trigger and make a final presidential election prediction.

In 2012, I made predictions for 48 states, and got 48 states right. I did't even try to predict Florida or North Carolina (if I had done so, I would have been 49 for 50 if I'm recalling my intuitions correctly).

In 2016, I made predictions for 50 states and got 48 of them right. I blew Wisconsin and Iowa.

This year, I am once again predicting 50 states. I can't say I'm especially confident on all 50 (North Carolina, Arizona, and Florida most look they may still be up in the air to me), but I guess we'll see if I can maintain my 48-state streak for the third election in a row.



The prediction by numbers: 319 electoral votes for Joe Biden, 219 electoral votes for Donald Trump.

Could I be wrong? Absolutely. Could I be wildly wrong? You betcha. But this is how it looks to me and it's where I'm placing my "final bet" -- and if I'm wrong, I think I'm more likely to be wrong in Ohio, Iowa, Georgia, or North Carolina than I am to be wrong on any of the states I'm predicting a Biden win in.


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