Tuesday, September 14, 2021

I Don't Really Have a California Recall Prediction

The polls seem to say Gavin Newsom won't be recalled.

But, then, the polls have been moving for a little while to get where they are, and I'm pretty sure early voting started before the biggest shift.

And I'm not sure the polling captures the enthusiasm factor -- that is, how many Republicans are really motivated to vote to recall him versus how many Democrats are in "meh, not really for it, but maybe I'll bother to vote against it, or maybe I'll mow the yard and binge Portlandia again instead" territory.

I'll be mildly surprised if the recall succeeds. But not gobsmacked.

Here's the prediction I do have for you:

If the recall succeeds and Larry Elder becomes governor (he looks like a lock as replacement if the recall passes), he won't be re-elected and there will be an all-out and probably successful effort to get rid of the recall mechanism. He's neither as popular nor as "moderate" as Ahhhhhnold.

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