Friday, October 11, 2019

My 2020 Presidential Election Projection as of October 11, 2019

Not that anything's changed lately. I'm waiting to see what the impeachment show does to the polling over time before making any major changes. Here's the electoral map as I see it at this moment:

And here's Taegan Goddard's current projection (see the original page for the sources he's relying on):

One reason for this post is to remind myself to use that interactive map function from now on.

The differences between Goddard's projection and mine:

  • He has Arizona, Iowa, and North Carolina as toss-ups. I still have them going to Trump as they did in 2016.
  • He has Wisconsin and Michigan as toss-ups. I have them going to the Democratic candidate rather than to Trump as they did in 2016, and my confidence in that prediction is in excess of 99% for Wisconsin and in excess of 90% for Michigan.
As to where I think I might just be wrong:

  • Arizona made my initial "watch this state" cut several months ago as a prime state for change on both of two criteria: Trump won the state by less than 5% and third party/independent candidates polled more than 5% in 2016. Also (not among my "watch this state" criteria), in the 2018 midterms Democrat Kyrsten Sinema beat Republican Martha McSally to replace Republican Jeff Flake in the US Senate, and Democrats picked up a US House seat as well. My gut feeling is that Arizona still goes for Trump again, but I might move it into toss-up territory soon.
  • North Carolina only met one of my two "watch this state" criteria -- Trump won by less than 5% (3.66%), but third party/independent candidates only hit about 4%. That more than covered "the balance of power" but  there's a "base" third party vote that isn't up for grabs. Net in-migration (mostly from from "bluer" states -- advantage Democrats) also seems to be decreasing and I suspect that culture war considerations (advantage Trump) will keep the state red.
  • I'm not married to the idea of Iowa staying red. It might make the "toss-up" list next time around, especially if Trump keeps screwing the farmers with his trade wars.

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