Friday, March 14, 2014

My First Election 2014 Prediction

Scott Brown appears to be ready to jump into the race for US Senate from New Hampshire.

If he does, he will probably win the Republican primary, but he'll get whipped like a red-headed stepchild in November by incumbent Democrat Jeanne Shaheen.

Here's why:

  • Brown couldn't hold on to a Senate seat from Massachusetts, so he's shopping for one from New Hampshire. Nobody likes sloppy seconds. Especially "independents."
  • He won't get the GOP base out. After his first debacle of a partial term, his picture appears next to "RINO" in the acronym dictionary. The only Republicans who are really excited about Brown are the navel-gazing psycho wonks who thought John McCain and Mitt Romney were surefire winners. He can probably win the primary on name recognition and low turnout, but the general is a whole different story.
  • And he won't play well with Democrats because well, they've already got one holding down that seat.
If Brown runs, New Hampshire is a D-hold in November.

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