Tuesday, July 08, 2008

My (current) presidential predictions

Yes, the general election is still a long way off ... which is why attempting to predict outcomes is so much fun. Besides, I'm feeling my oats, having predicted McCain's nomination eight months out when virtually everyone except me, and maybe McCain himself, thought he was done. I may revise these predictions, but I won't memory-hole anything.

Popular Vote

Based on a guesstimated 120-million vote turnout, with a fudge factor of a little less than 1/10th of 1%:

Barack Obama (D) -- 54%(63.6 million)
John McCain (R) -- 44.5% (52.8 million)
Bob Barr (L) -- 0.6% (720k)
Cynthia McKinney (G) -- 0.5% (600k)
Ralph Nader (I) -- 0.3% (400k)
Charles Baldwin (C) -- ~0.15% (200k)
Charles Jay (BTP) -- ~0.03% (25-50k)

Electoral College

Obama -- 333 electoral votes
McCain -- 205 electoral votes

Yes, I know the map below looks like hell -- I'm not an artist, I just filled in colors in a public domain image by Wikipedia author Scott5114.

Dark blue represents states won by Obama. Light blue represents "Barrbama" states -- states Obama picks up because Bob Barr takes McCain down. Red represents states won by McCain.

Final answer? No. Like I said, I may revise as things develop. You'll know I've frozen my predictions when I'm willing to bet on them. On the one hand, I still have this nagging hunch that McCain will find a way to pull it off -- but that hunch conflicts with my state-specific hunches that Obama will find a way to put Florida and Missouri in play.

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