Tuesday, September 30, 2014

A Question for US Senator Ted Cruz

Are you stupid, Ted? Or is it that you think I'm stupid? Because you either have no idea what you're talking about or you're trying to put one over on me.

In a fundraising email for the National Republican Congressional Committee today, you tell me that:

It's crunch time in the midterm elections and control of Congress is hanging in the balance .... Nancy Pelosi has declared all-out war on us conservatives, and if we don't fight back, they will be in a strong position to win the 17 seats needed to send Pelosi back to the Speaker's Chair.

The US House of Representatives currently comprises 233 Republican and 199 Democratic seats.

It's a mid-term election. In mid-term elections the president's party doesn't win seats, it loses seats -- even in non-"wave" years (but I hear a lot of Republicans projecting a "wave" election in which Republicans pretty much break the Democratic bank).

Of the top 25 "mostly likely to change parties" House seats, as ranked by RealClearPolitics, 16 are currently held by Democrats and are at least somewhat likely to be won by Republicans in November. Only nine (as those of us who can do arithmetic know) are leaning the other way.

If Republicans lose every one of the House races ranked as "tossups" by RCP, they'll still come out of the election with 230 seats (12 more than they need to retain their majority), so long as they win all the "leans/likely GOP" contests.

So which is it, Ted? Are you too dumb to handle even the most basic math, or are you intentionally blowing smoke up my ass to jiggle a buck out of me (not that I would ever consider donating to any Republican cause)? Because it's got to be one or the other.

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