Monday, November 02, 2009

Election predictions


I try to go on record with this stuff whenever possible -- not because I have a stellar record or anything (although, as I never tire of pointing out, I predicted McCain as the GOP's 2008 nominee in June of 2007, when everyone else was publicly wondering when he'd shut his campaign down), but because I hate having to argue about what I predicted. I'd rather be wrong, and have it there in black and white, than be right and have trouble proving it. So:

Virginia: This is the easy one. McDonnell rolls right over Deeds for governor.

New Jersey: A little harder, but I think incumbent Democrat Corzine will pull it out versus Republican Christie and independent Daggett for governor. The polls I'm seeing have Corzine and Christie within the margin of error, and Democratic Party's New Jersey vote fraud machine presumably remains as well-oiled as the GOP's Ohio knock-off.

New York's 23rd US House District: Well, this one's the $64,000 question, isn't it? I predict victory for Conservative Party nominee Doug Hoffman, but I won't be terribly surprised if I'm wrong.

Local, near and dear to heart issue: Voters in St. Louis County, Missouri, vote on a countywide smoking ban in bars and restaurants tomorrow. Apparently if it passes in the county, that triggers an equivalent ban in the city of St. Louis (which for political districting purposes is actually also a county). I predict that it will fail.

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