Wordle 1199 Hint

 Hint: Hey, you, get off of mine -- there are at least eight others!

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First Letter: C

Wordle 1198 Hint

 Hint: You know today's Wordle, and it will miss you when you're gone.

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First Letter: R

OK, I'm Back ...

... but I haven't been back for long enough to be certain that the electric/cable repairs are finished. In the past, we've sometimes had power for an hour or two and then had it go out again for some amount of time. This time it was about 36 hours of no power. I took the motorcycle downtown for a bit, and it was back on when I returned.

No obvious damage to the house, and everyone's safe. Which, of course, is the preferred outcome. The storm ripped about half the siding off the house next to ours, and dropped some big trees within half a mile or so. It looked/felt like a pretty big blow, but other than the siding, our neighborhood looks like it came out pretty well.

Hope anyone and everyone affected by the storm came out OK -- let us know in comments!

Speaking of the motorcycle:

The "motorcycle garage" arrived on Wednesday, but I wasn't going to put it together and up right before a hurricane. It's really just a glorified cover on a frame of metal rods. It's mean for light protection. I parked the motorcycle in my mechanic friend's real garage across the street.

Yesterday, with not much to do since the power was out, I went over there (he runs a generator and was doing car stuff) and did some work on the bike.

I hadn't noticed until after getting home from the accident that the fall had pushed my handlebars a little to the right. So I loosened the hex bolts that hold them, re-centered them, and tilted them a little further out toward the seat so that I can lean even a little further back than before. I also took a mallet to the left foot peg, which had been ever so slightly bent in the lay-down.

And I took off the little "windshield." It really served no obvious purpose, and frankly I thought it made the bike look like a toy or something. It wasn't big enough to provide significant protection for much of anything, and I suspect if I ever went over the front of the bike, some part of me would catch on that thing and just make everyhing worse.

Both I and my mechanic friend wondered what its aerodynamic effects might be and what would happen in that respect if I removed it. Anecdotally (I didn't have my GPS speedometer app on), I think the main effect was that I achieved a top speed of 60 miles per hour or maybe even 61, instead of the former 58. That's just a guess, based on what the "generous" factory speedometer read (63 mph). And it's possible that I had a perfect tailwind or something.

The bike also looks a bit meaner without the little toy windshield on it. Going with the "mean theme," I have a tiny sticker on the way (the first, and maybe only, sticker I intend to put on the bike):

No prize for figuring out what it means, but take a guess if you like (for the first two letters think "Marine Corps"). I've been seeing those stickers around and had no idea what they meant until I saw then in a Marine Corps context.

Wordle 1195 Hint

Hint: If you're grateful for the daily Wordle hints, say so!

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First Letter: T

Schrödinger's Car II: This Time It's Personal

Well, more personal, anyway.

I knew I would eventually meet that one driver -- the one I mentioned the other day -- while riding the Italica Bulldog 150.

Just got home from the encounter, with minor scratches to body (left elbow, left knee, just like my motorcycle school "wreck") and bike.

I was entering a 15 mph traffic circle, and wasn't even going the full 15 mph, both because of conditions (rain, some wind, fairly heavy traffic) and because was maybe 50 feet out of my turn onto the road from a gas station/convenience store parking lot and so would have had time to develop much speed even if I'd wanted to.

I saw the guy. You know the guy: Car doing the herky jerky as he vacillated between stopping or just trying to sneak into  the traffic circle ahead of me, even though I was already in it and therefore had right of way.

I went down. I suppose it might have been just my body's reaction while on a wet surface and in a slight lean that caused it, but I think it's more likely that I gave the rear brake a slight reflexive squeeze at the instant I saw he was going for it (which he was), just enough to skid the rear wheel. I was up, back on the bike, and moving in probably ten seconds. Pulled over at the next convenient place to adjust mirrors and check for any serious damage, then rode home.

Would I have hit him if I hadn't gone down? Probably. And then it would have been "his fault," but both me and the bike would have likely ended up in considerably worse shape.

Shit happens. And I was out and about specifically because it was rainy and breezy. The way you get good at riding in such conditions is by riding in such conditions, so I decided to run out and gas up the bike because why not?

Mileage between last fill-up and this one: 68.8 miles per gallon. Average mileage so far: 69.6 miles per gallon.

The Current Forecast ...

... has wind speeds topping out at 35 miles per hour in Gainesville (five miles to my east) late Thursday and early Friday as Helene passes to the west. While Archer (five miles to my west) has 40 mph winds for the same time frame and in the same forecast.

Right now, the eastern edge of the "storm cone" just barely brushes the Gulf coast the west of Gainesville and Archer. But hurricanes have been known to take unexpected turns. Even a slight deviation from predicted path could dramatically change impacts.

Guess I'll be strapping/re-strapping/checking straps on stuff tomorrow morning.

The Italica Bulldog 150 will not be going into the "motorcycle garage" that arrives today. That thing is just a glorified motorcycle "cover" with a light frame, and I won't even bother setting it up until after the storm is past. I've arranged to store it in my mechanic friend's real garage.

If you're in the storm cone, be safe.

NFL Week 4 Picks

NFL Week 4 starts tomorrow night with the Cowboys taking on the Giants.  Here are my picks, entered in ESPN's "Pigskin Pick'em" game. "Upset" picks -- that is, picks where I'm in the minority as to who will win -- have asterisks next to them.

• Dallas Cowboys beat New York Giants
• Atlanta Falcons beat New Orleans Saints*
• Chicago Bears beat Los Angeles Rams*
• Minnesota Vikings beat Green Bay Packers
• Pittsburgh Steelers beat Indianapolis Colts
• New York Jets beat Denver Broncos
• Philadelphia Eagles beat Tampa Bay Buccaneers
• Cincinnati Bengals beat Carolina Panthers
• Jacksonville Jaguars beat Houston Texans*
• Washington Commanders beat Arizona Cardinals*
• San Francisco 49ers beat New England Patriots
• Las Vegas Raiders beat Cleveland Browns
• Kansas City Chiefs beat Los Angeles Chargers
• Baltimore Ravens beat Buffalo Bills*
• Miami Dolphins beat Tennessee Titans
• Detroit Lions beat Seattle Seahawks

Wordle 1194 Hint

Hint: Let there be light (in a form you can carry with you).

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First Letter: T

NFL Week 3 Results

 My Week 3 picks, green for correct ones, red for incorrect ones:

• New York Jets beat New England Patriots
• Cleveland Browns beat New York Giants
• Green Bay Packers beat Tennessee Titans
• Chicago Bears beat Indianapolis Colts*
• Minnesota Vikings beat Houston Texans*
• Philadelphia Eagles beat New Orleans Saints*
• Pittsburgh Steelers beat Los Angeles Chargers
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat Denver Broncos
• Las Vegas Raiders beat Carolina Panthers
• Miami Dolphins beat Seattle Seahawks*
• Baltimore Ravens beat Dallas Cowboys
• San Francisco 49ers beat Los Angeles Rams
• Detroit Lions beat Arizona Cardinals
• Kansas City Chiefs beat Atlanta Falcons
• Jacksonville Jaguars beat Buffalo Bills*
• Cincinnati Bengals beat Washington Commanders

Eight right, eight wrong.

Yet I moved up to the 83.5th percentile among players of ESPN's "Pigskin Pick'em" game. Clearly I'm not the only one who had a bad week. 93%  picked the Browns to beat the Giants. 97% picked the Buccaneersto beat the Broncos. 96% picked the Raiders to beat the Panthers. 93% picked the 49ers picked to beat the Rams. 90% picked the Bengals to beat the Commanders.

The undefeated -- so far -- teams in the NFL at this point are the Chiefs, the Vikings, the Steelers, the Seahawks, and the Bills.

Schrödinger's Car

Every car stopped at an intersection which you're approaching is simultaneously (in a probabilistic sense and from your point of view):

1. Waiting for you to go by before turning;
2. Turning in front of you at an unsafe distance even though you have right of way.

You do not know, and cannot know, which is the case until you're either safely past, or braking/swerving to avoid a collision.

While that's the case with all "approaching intersection at which car will be turning" situations, my own pet peeve is the driver who makes up his mind at the last possible second, burns rubber to get in front of me ... then immediately slows down to well below the legal speed limit.

If he was in such a hurry, why didn't he pull out earlier and more safely, and why is he now driving like old people fuck after scaring more gray into my hair?

Wordle 1193 Hint

Hint: The answer to today's Wordle is both useful and within easy reach.

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First Letter: H

It's Alive!

So far, my only criticism of the "Y10 Motorcycle Helmet Bluetooth Headset with HiFi Stereo Sound, Noise Reduction, 1000mAh Battery, Helmet Bluetooth Headset Speakers with RGB, IPX6 Waterproof, Hand Free, Easy Set Up" (not an affiliate link) which arrived at my door yesterday is that the enclosed instructions were published in excessively fine print (I finally had to hand them off to Tamara to stare at under a light), written/illustrated in typical "Chinglish," and minimal even where understandable.

Fortunately, there was an installation video at the Amazon listing for the headset.

And now that the thing is in my helmet and I've done a little video searching on how to actually use it, I can in fact talk on the phone with it, which I don't really want to do, or press a button on it that invokes my phone's "personal assistant" software, and  say something like "navigate to Mazeppa, Minnesota" or "what time does Dick Mondell's Burgers & Fries close tonight?" and get instructions/answers which I can actually hear while riding down a busy highway at 55 mph, which is exactly what I bought it for.

No, the Italica Bulldog 150 isn't really a "drive from Gainesville to Mazeppa" vehicle. But there are lots of places even within 50 miles or so that I would require navigation assistance to find. Especially since all the streets in Gainesville are just quadrants (northwest, northeast, southeast, southwesst) and numbers followed by "street," "lanem" "avenue," "boulevard," "terrace," "court," "way," "drive," etc.

Outside the quadrant context, it's never really obvious that a numbered thing will be anywhere near another similarly numbered thing. For example, to get from SW 82nd Lane to Southwest 82nd Place is a journey of 6.3 miles. Getting from the former to the latter requires six turns and travel down 107th Street, Florida State Road 24 (aka SW Archer Road), SW 75th Street, SW 85th Avenue, and State Road 121 (aka SW Williston Road). They have similar names, but other than that the sole shared characteristic is that they're both south of University Avenue and west of Main Street.

I guess I could also listen to music on the headset, but I'm not sure that would be very safe and probably won't do it unless I'm on a long lonely country highway ride or something. Its main utility is helping me get from Point A to Point B.

Election 2024: It's Always a Concern, But It's Not, Strictly Speaking, The Point

Alexander Bolton at The Hill:

Senate Democrats are worried pollsters are once again undercounting the Trump vote and say Vice President Harris’s slim lead in battleground states, especially Pennsylvania, is cause for serious concern. ... Democratic lawmakers are growing nervous that their party may once again feel lulled into a false sense of optimism amid polls showing Harris with small but consistent leads in three crucial states that make up the “blue wall”: Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

As you may recall, one factor in my 2016 "Trump is gonna win this prediction was my perception that pollsters weren't reaching a particular demographic -- rural people who didn't usually vote and who may have "cut the cord" on land line phones -- and were thus under-counting Trump's likely support.

My Scientific Wild Ass Guess onthe effect of that was that in states with significant rural populations where Clinton was polling less than five points ahead it was in reality at best a tie, and if she was polling less than three points ahead she was actually behind.

I think at least part of that polling problem has been solved -- I'm a rural resident who's been reached by pollsters on my cell phone rather than a land line in every election since that one.

As for the other part, people who didn't usually vote prior to 2016, but got out to vote for Trump in 2016 and again in 2020, are probably in pollsters' "likely voter" databases now.

But there was another factor in my model, and it remains there. That factor is enthusiasm, and no matter how they try, pollsters don't seem to be able to capture that as well. My method is anecdotal. 

In 2016, even actually in Gainesville (hippy dippy doo university-centered city that definitely trends Gainesville), I barely saw any Hillary Clinton signs or bumper stickers.

But heading west out of Gainesville toward "the sticks," you could pull over at just about any random point and see at least on Trump sign somewhere ahead of you, behind you, or next to you. It may have been possible to find a point along Highway 24 between Gainesville and Cedar Key to find a stopping spot with no Trump signs in view, but I wouldn't have bet money on it.

Probably half the pickup trucks had Trump stickers on them, and I frequently saw a pickup truck driving up and down the highway with a HUGE Trump flag affixed to a pole in its bed. I don't know if they were going places or just literally "showing the flag," but I probably saw that truck at least 20 of the times I had occasion to head west from my home for more than a mile on Highway 24 (I live right off the highway, about five miles west of Gainesville).

Even in hippy dippy doo Gainesville, Trump signs/stickers probably outnumbered Clinton signs/stickers by at least ten to one. There were periodic.  "sign waves" on main roads, with crowds of 10-20 people waving Trump signs. The full extent of active Clinton campaigning that I saw first-hand was at the fall Pride festival downtown, where I ran into none other than Debbie Wasserman Schultz, personally campaigning (far from her House district) for her party's nominee.

This year, I'm seeing far more Harris/Walz signs and stickers in town than I saw for either Clinton  in 2016 or Biden in 2020.

Out of town, I'm not seeing the truck with the flag, I'm seeing fewer Trump stickers/signs than I did in 2016 or 2020, and most those I'm seeing are age-faded and/or in front of some, but not all, of the same houses that had them out in 2016 and/or 2020.

What are you seeing in your area?

In anything like a close election, a higher percentage of enthused voters than of "have a preference, but meh" voters will actually cast ballots.

Trump won in 2016, but his actively enthused base is smaller now than it was then.

Not just because of his crazy talk or mean tweets, but because he's no long the shiny new exciting thing who activates previously inactive voters.

More party-centric Republican-leaning voters notice that Trump has, on balance, hurt the GOP down-ticket. Remember what it was like when Obama was in office and Trump wasn't a candidate for office? The GOP took both houses of Congress and held them for eight years.

Meanwhile, Democratic-leaning voters seem to have worked up a reasonable leve of enthusiasm for Harris -- and a number of states have ballot issues that also excite them.

Yes, Harris could shit the bed in some creative new way, and kill that enthusiasm.

But the Trump campaign is treading water and trying not to drown, not coming up with anything that might re-kindle the 2016 enthusiasm or even the 2020 enthusiasm among those for who it has faded.

Wordle 1192 Hint

Hint: Careful with today's Wordle -- if it was any cooler, you might end up in hot water.

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First Letter: S

Wordle 1191 Hint

Hint: For two usages of today's Wordle (an activity and a proper name) think "a class on Blackbeard."

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First Letter: T

Election 2024: My 50-State Predictions

Will this be the fourth presidential election in a row for which I accurately predict the outcome in 48 (or more) states?

I'm never extremely confident this far out, and this time I'm less confident than usual. But I have standards, and two of them are:

• No waiting until the very last minute and just going with whatever the polls say; and
• No reservations with "toss-ups," etc. This is a "how I predict it will come out" statement, not a "how I think that maybe it might come out" statement. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong and I won't be able to come back and say "well, as you can see, I threw in a bunch of caveats so really I wasn't wrong."

Why I'm less confident and why I very well could be wrong on several "swing" states:

A lot can happen in 44 days. Harris could commit some exceptionally horrendous blunder that up-ends things. Trump could get his shit together and start running a credible ground game. One of the candidates could suffer a severe (or event the ultimate) negative health event, naturally or otherwise.

But let's get to the state by state map, which I drew up using 270 To Win's handy dandy tool:

As you can see, I predict that Kamala Harris will win all of the swing states: Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia. I'm least confident about Georgia, but that's my pick.

Why?

Harris the momentum. She has an enthused base that will turn out. She's raising tons of money to advertise to, and deploy a well-organized ground effort to reach, the theoretically "undecideds." I don't really believe true "undecideds" exist at this point, but that's irrelevant: The ads and ground game will enthuse those "leaning" her way to actually vote, while depressing those who "lean" toward Trump and making them wonder if it's worth the bother.

She's in the driver's seat. Yes, she could wreck the car, but she has the wheel.

Trump doesn't. He's not out there convincing anyone who hasn't been convinced for years already, and he's lost a lot of those who were previously convinced in 2016 and/or 2020. It doesn't seem likely that he's about to become newly persuasive, and he's apparently handed his Get Out The Vote effort off to novices with neither the motivation to e.g. walk precincts and knock on doors nor the institutional connections to get others to do that for them.

Mean tweets and increasingly deranged public rants won't lose Trump's remaining base for him -- but that base is smaller than it used to be, and mean tweets and increasingly deranged public rants won't re-grow it.

Meanwhile, the Republican Party is having to pull out all stops just to hold lower offices in "Trump-safe" states like Florida (where US Senator Rick Scott is ahead of, but flirting with margin of error versus, Democratic challenger Debbie Mucarsel-Powell and there are ballot issues likely to increase Democratic turnout) and Texas (where US Senator Ted Cruz is neck and neck with Democratic challenger Colin Allred). That's money and effort that can't be used in those swing states.

Yeah, I may be wrong on a state or two. But I doubt it. And I don't expect to be wrong by the 51 electoral votes it would take to put Trump rather than Harris in the Oval Office.

Wordle 1190 Hint

Hint: The size of Kambei Shimada's army.

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First Letter: S

A Downgrade I've Been Looking Forward To For Years

One thing I hated about living in St. Louis was not being able to see the stars very well at all.

When we moved to Gainesville, I was happy to be living in an area that's a six, rather than an eight to nine, on the Bortle Scale. Major constellations are much more obvious, it's possible to see Mars and Venus at the right times, etc.

Bit it's only about 15 miles to an area (out west past Bronson) that's only a three, and only about 25 miles to the Otter Creek area, which is a two.

I've always loved a very, very dark cloudless night. Parts of the Mojave, rural Nevada, rural Utah, etc. are at 1 or 2 on the Bortle Scale and the stars are just magnificent. I can see why ancient man was so obsessed with them.

For years, I've been suggesting to Tamara that we pick a good night during a meteor shower or other notable celestial event and go have a late-night picnic beneath the stars. But there's always some reason why not.

I was afraid to try it with a bicycle, electric bicycle, or 50cc scooter. I just don't know those roads very well, and didn't fancy being out on them without the ability to move fast.

The new motorcycle solves the latter problem, but I do want to get some more night-time riding in before I hit unfamiliar territory in the dark. The bike is past the 400-mile mark now, and probably 370 of those miles are daytime miles. In fact, I may go for a local cruise tonight. Some of the nearby roads are fairly dark even though they're still well inside Gainesville's light pollution cone.

Side note: The lower gas mileage reading (66.26 miles per gallon versus the initial 71.97) after installing the new plug and coil was apparently an outlier. After today's fill-up, it measured 71.13 miles per gallon). All-time average, 69.9 mpg.

Wordle 1189 Hint

Hint: Montreux water feature, circa 1971.

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First Letter: S

Pleasant Bitcoin Surprises and New Motorcycle Stuff

As I've mentioned before, it feels like any time I spend a significant amount of Bitcoin, the price shoots up immediately afterward.

This morning, I decided to spend a significant amount of Bitcoin ($200 worth in the form of an Amazon gift card via BitRefill -- yes, that is an affiliate link, we both get $5 worth of BTC if you join through it and spend $200), and was pleasantly surprised that the dollar value of BTC had increased from about $59k to more than $63k while I slept. So I'm getting more stuff for my Bitcoin than I expected to, even if it does race to $70k now that I've spent a little.

So, you might wonder, what did I buy? Glad you asked!

The small stuff (the links are NOT affiliate links):

• A $9.99 assortment of motorcycle center stand springs, at least one of which will hopefully substitute well for the one that went missing from the Italica Bulldog 500.
• A $16.99 Bluetooth headset for my motorcycle helmet. I don't expect it to be used much for things like music or phone calls -- I try to ride safely -- but I want to be able to hear instructions from a navigation app, which proved to be problematic from a handlebar-mounted phone at, say, 50 miles per hour in traffic (speaking of which, the phone now goes in a velcro-mounted waterproof bag atop the gas tank cover).
• A pair of comfortable-looking short work/hiking/motorcycling boots that I noticed on sale for $19.99.

The big thing: A $150 motorcycle "shed."

Covering the bike is not really optional. For most of the year in Florida, there are two kinds of weather: Very rainy and very sunny.

You can identify a non-garage-kept car in Florida from the paint fade/disintegration on its hood. It's not just the engine heat causing that, it's long-term daily exposure to the sun.

On the rain side, your car seat is generally dry if it's been raining out. Not so a motorcycle seat. And if it's rainy and windy, the mechanical innards of a motorcycle get a lot more water exposure than with a car.

Nothing against my cheap "drape it over" motorcycle cover, but there are problems, both with it and with me.

The problems with it include its tight fit and elastic band. No matter how careful I am, I suspect that sooner or later, I will snag on, and snap off, a turn signal while putting it on or pulling it off. Also, I don't reall trust the elastic or the straps very much, so I weigh it down at each end, meaning that when I'm ready to leave I have to move a 32 pound kettle bell from in front of it.

The problems with me are laziness and inattentiveness.

Heck, it doesn't look like rain today, I'll put the cover on later (after which I remember, about the time the skies open up).

I'm in a hurry, I'l just pull it off and throw it down real quick and haul ass (after which I notice the sound of something -- you know what -- dragging behind me as I drive down the street).

This thing solves both those problems.

Drive up, roll the bike in, grab metal frame, pull closed, walk away. Walk up, grab metal frame, pull open, roll the bike out, drive away. Plenty of room, no clinging to turn signals, etc., nothing else to move, nothing to procrastinate about, etc.

And as a bonus, the cheap cover can replace the even cheaper cover on the old 50cc scooter which isn't getting much use these days.

Wordle 1188 Hint

Hint: The missing item in this group: Religion, speech, ____, assembly, petitioning.

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First Letter: P

Week 3 NFL Picks

NFL Week 3 starts tomorrow night with The New England Patriots going up against the New York Jets.  Here are my picks, entered in ESPN's "Pigskin Pick'em" game.

• New York Jets beat New England Patriots
• Cleveland Browns beat New York Giants
• Green Bay Packers beat Tennessee Titans
• Chicago Bears beat Indianapolis Colts*
• Minnesota Vikings beat Houston Texans*
• Philadelphia Eagles beat New Orleans Saints*
• Pittsburgh Steelers beat Los Angeles Chargers
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat Denver Broncos
• Las Vegas Raiders beat Carolina Panthers
• Miami Dolphins beat Seattle Seahawks*
• Baltimore Ravens beat Dallas Cowboys
• San Francisco 49ers beat Los Angeles Rams
• Detroit Lions beat Arizona Cardinals
• Kansas City Chiefs beat Atlanta Falcons
• Jacksonville Jaguars beat Buffalo Bills
• Cincinnati Bengals beat Washington Commanders

I've appended an asterisk to my "upset" picks -- that is, picks that don't agree with the majority as of the time I make them.

Functionality Wins in Conflict vs. Cosmetics

One of my plans regarding the Bulldog 150cc was to keep it as cosmetically pristine as possible, since one of my other plans is to sell it in a couple of years. Aside from a bike that performs well (due to regular maintenance/TLC and upgrades to its various parts), I want to be able to list a bike that looks good.

BUT!

In this day and age, it's unthinkable to not have a smart phone mounted on the bike somewhere visible from the rider's vantage point. You can use it to navigate unfamiliar routes. You can use it to give you a more accurate estimate of speed than the stock gauges. If it rings, you can glance at it and see whether it's a call you can ignore or a call you need to pull over and answer.

I mounted an el cheapo phone holder on the handlebar, positioned such that it can be constantly charged form the bike's USB port. It worked, but not well. Instead of its edges popping into place around the phone, they had to be manually squeezed, and I was always worried that they'd give way and let the phone go flying. And the thing rattled like hell if I rode without the phone in it.

So I ordered a better one. It's really quite nice. Except that my phone (which is built into a thicker than normal case) won't fit in it.

Thought number three: Get one of those magnetic bags that you just slap on the gas tank. They hold on very well and many come with transparent touch-screen-compatible windows for your phone.

Nope. The bike has a lot of plastic over the tank, such that a magnet doesn't stick.

So, I'm going with a simple sub-$5 waterproof/touch-screen-window phone bag, arriving today.

It has a lanyard that I can hitch around the handlebars so that if it comes flying off the tank at least it won't get very far.

Affixing it to the tank will be a  matter of attaching velcro strip pairs to the plastic tank cover and to the phone bag.

So when I sell the bike, it will either have velcro strips on its tank cover, or whatever residue from those strips I can't get off, or non-uniform tank cover color where some of the bike has been exposed to sun/weather and some hasn't.

I guess the velcro strips might be something I can sell as a feature rather than a bug, especially if I throw the phone bag in as part of the deal.

Wordle 1187 Hint

Hint: No half-measures -- you need to be all in to solve today's Wordle.

Not Enough? Get the first letter of today's Wordle after the ads below.

New to Wordle? You can play it at the New York Times, and here are some thoughts on how I go about solving each day's puzzle.

First Letter: F

Things NFL Players Don't Need From Me, And Things I Don't Need From NFL Players

Tua Tagovailoa doesn't need my advice on whether he should retire now that he's on injured reserve after his third (known) concussion on the field.

The only advice he needs is the advice he either thinks he should listen to (friends, loved ones, trusted doctors, etc.), or has no choice but to listen to (presumably the Dolphins, Roger Goodell, and/or other NFL officials could make that kind of decision for him whether he agrees or not).

Yes, he seems to be financially secure if he decides to pack it in. But he clearly loves playing football (you don't just happen to end up playing for the Crimson Tide and the Dolphins; that takes talent and hard work and focused commitment and overwhelming desire).

Fans' concern for his health is all good and well, but the fans don't get to make this decision for him. We just get to wish him the best with whatever decision he makes.

I don't need Brett Favre's lectures on whether or not I'm sufficiently "patriotic." He was a football player. Since then, he's been an actor and, allegedly, a corporate welfare cheat. None of those things qualify him to teach me, or anyone else, about patriotism -- whether it's good or bad, and whether we possess enough, not enough, or too much of it.

But I am going to put in a plug for a movie he turned up in: There's Something About Mary. I won't spoil your fun if you haven't seen it, but it also features my favorite musician of all time: Jonathan Richman. Here's Richman performing the theme song from the movie (live, not in the movie so as to not risk any spoilers):

NFL Week 2 Results

Wow ... what a bloodbath!

My Week 2 picks, green for correct ones, red for incorrect ones:

• Miami Dolphins beat Buffalo Bills
• Dallas Cowboys beat New Orleans Saints
• Detroit Lions beat Tampa Bay Buccaneers
• Green Bay Packers beat Indianapolis Colts*
• New York Giants beat Washington Comanders*
• San Francisco 49ers beat Minnesota Vikings
• Seattle Seahawks beat New England Patriots
• New York Jets beat Tennessee Titans
• Los Angeles Chargers beat Carolina Panthers
• Jacksonville Jaguars beat Cleveland Browns
• Baltimore Ravens beat Las Vegas Raiders
• Los Angeles Rams beat Arizona Cardinals
• Pittsburgh Steelers beat Denver Broncos
• Kansas City Chiefs beat Cincinnati Bengals
• Chicago Bears beat Houston Texans*
• Philadelphia Eagles beat Atlanta Falcons

I only got six out of 16 correct.

I'm far from alone, though. Of the ten I got wrong, I picked "with the majority" -- generally the huge majority, 85% or more, on eight. I'm still in the top 22.4% among those playing ESPN's "Pigskin Pick'em" game, and for the season I'm at 20 correct, 12 incorrect.

Week 3 picks coming tomorrow or Thursday.

Wordle 1186 Hint

Hint: What an excellent specimen (in this case, of the five-letter word puzzle)! But also a rather lazy truncation.

Not Enough? Get the first letter of today's Wordle after the ads below.

New to Wordle? You can play it at the New York Times, and here are some thoughts on how I go about solving each day's puzzle.

First Letter: B

Election 2024: Assassination Attempts and the Art of Motorcycle Riding

You knew I was going to go there sooner or later, right?

So, a second (supposedly -- my guess is there have been a lot more that never got quite so far and/or never got publicly divulged) assassination attempt on disgraced former president Donald Trump.

And a second decision on the part of Republicans -- excepting, briefly, Trump himself the first time -- to lean into the "this is all the Democrats' fault" curve direction in search of sympathy, rather than counter-leaning toward the middle of the "civility" / "can't we all get along" road and letting the sympathy generate itself.

Explanatory video for those who don't instantly grasp the first of two motorcycle metaphors in this post (and if you find motorcycles even the tiniest bit interesting, I recommend all the content you'll find on the FortNine Youtube channel):

I get it: MAGA World is in full-on, bug-eyed, squat-and-pee panic because Kamala Harris hasn't crashed and burned ... yet. They see her pulling ahead, they're looking for an inside track to catch up, and it just feels correct to lean that bike over into the "screech about how mean the Democrats are" curve, twist the throttle to all the way back, and pray.

But it's a bad idea. It's inherently unstable, more likely to result in a crash, and extremely unlikely to generate the desired for sympathy from voters (quantified by gaining on Harris in the polls).

Cold comfort as it may be, there's another motorcycle metaphor -- or at least maxim -- applicable to this situation:

"Ride your own ride."

In the motorcycle world, that tends to apply to group rides, peer pressure, and trying to keep up with your friends, but it's just good general advice on and off of a motorcycle.

You got your motorcycle license last week and bought a Honda Grom.

Your best friend has been on motorcycles since he was five years old and rides a Suzuki GSX1300R Hayabusa.

You are not going to ride as well, or as fast, as your friend. If you try, there's a very good chance you will damage your bike, your body, or both.

That doesn't mean you can't get from Gainesville, Florida to Tallahassee faster than he does.

He might get pulled over for doing 140 miles per hour on I-75/I-10. Or get caught in one of that freeway's hours-long "OK, it's a parking lot" situations. Or just get distracted and plow into the back of some poor snowbird's RV.

If you try to take that Grom down I-75/I-10, you might end up under an 18-wheeler because you're lugging along at 55 miles per hour on a road where most people are doing at least 80 if they're moving at all. What you won't do is ride faster than your friend. His bike is more powerful than yours and he knows how to ride it better than you know how to ride yours.

You're better off hopping on non-freeway US 27, hopefully keeping up with traffic, and seeing if you can make the 143-mile trip safely, and maybe, just maybe, faster than your friend can cover 150 miles on I-75 and I-10.

You probably can't, but that's your best chance.

Ride. Your. Own. Ride.

As with the Grom v. Hayabusa ride, the Trump campaign's best ride strategy is plugging along on whatever pluses it can generate, while hoping that the Harris campaign suffers some kind of epic flame-out of its own instead of making itself look ridiculous, and possibly getting itself badly injured, in an attempt to catch up to and pass a currently more powerful vehicle on a more dangerous road.

Wordle 1185 Hint

Hint: Want some of today's Wordle? Get thee to an apiary!

Not Enough? Get the first letter of today's Wordle after the ads below.

New to Wordle? You can play it at the New York Times, and here are some thoughts on how I go about solving each day's puzzle.

First Letter: H

Wordle 1184 Hint

Hint: Today's Wordle will probably show up again periodically.

Not Enough? Get the first letter of today's Wordle after the ads below.

New to Wordle? You can play it at the New York Times, and here are some thoughts on how I go about solving each day's puzzle.

First Letter: R

Wordle 1183 Hint

Hint: The definition of today's Wordle isn't narrow.

Not Enough? Get the first letter of today's Wordle after the ads below.

New to Wordle? You can play it at the New York Times, and here are some thoughts on how I go about solving each day's puzzle.

First Letter: B

Wordle 1182 Hint

Hint: The world may or may not be cruel, but today's Wordle certainly is.

Not Enough? Get the first letter of today's Wordle after the ads below.

New to Wordle? You can play it at the New York Times, and here are some thoughts on how I go about solving each day's puzzle.

First Letter: H

Cruise Control? No.

You can probably guess why: One of those "throttle lock cruise control" mechanisms would be suicidal on a continuous variable transmission bike. On a standard transmission motorcycle, if you suddenly realize you need to reduce speed you can just pull in on the clutch grip. On the Italica Bulldog 150, if the throttle is back there's power going to the wheels.

BUT!

For $2.99, I can't resist trying this (not an affiliate link). It's in my Amazon shopping cart and will head my way the next time I have enough in that cart to justify actually placing an order.

It just slips around the throttle grip. You still add/subtract throttle by twisting your wrist on way or the other. No difference there. But your palm does the work so you don't get cramped arthritic fingers.

Yes, I'm buying the $2.99 version.

In yellow, naturally, to go with Olivia D's fairings (I'm also slowly building a collection of inexpensive black and yellow clothing to ride in, and of course I still have the cheap Kill Bill / "Bruce Lee" yellow track suit with black piping I bought last December for winter scooter riding).

Yes, it is probably crap that won't last a long time.

If I don't like it, I've only wasted $2.99.

If I do like it, I'll eventually buy a more expensive, and presumably more robust, version when the El Cheapo product breaks or stops being rigid enough to remain responsive.

I resisted the urge to ride today and see if I feel like that plug/coil replacement improved anything, both because the weather is less than wonderful and because I had work to do. But tomorrow is my "day off."

Week 2 NFL Picks

I almost forgot that the football week starts on Thursday night! If you'd like to put your picks up against mine for bragging rights, here's an invite link to ESPN's "Pigskin Pick'em" game. My Week 2 predictions:

• Miami Dolphins beat Buffalo Bills
• Dallas Cowboys beat New Orleans Saints
• Detroit Lions beat Tampa Bay Buccaneers
• Green Bay Packers beat Indianapolis Colts*
• New York Jets beat Tennessee Titans
• San Francisco 49ers beat Minnesota Vikings
• Seattle Seahawks beat New England Patriots
• New York Jets beat Washington Commanders*
• Los Angeles Chargers beat Carolina Panthers
• Jacksonville Jaguars beat Cleveland Browns
• Baltimore Ravens beat Las Vegas Raiders
• Los Angeles Rams beat Arizona Cardinals
• Pittsburgh Steelers beat Denver Broncos
• Kansas City Chiefs beat Cincinnati Bengals
• Chicago Bears beat Houston Texans*
• Philadelphia Eagles beat Atlanta Falcons

"Upset" picks are noted with a *.

Wordle 1181 Hint

Hint: Several of us who solved today's Wordle already are blowing our own horns. Perhaps we should just join an orchestra together.

Not Enough? Get the first letter of today's Wordle after the ads below.

New to Wordle? You can play it at the New York Times, and here are some thoughts on how I go about solving each day's puzzle.

First Letter: B

Tonight Reminds Me ...

... of why I seriously considered buying, and perhaps should have bought, that "cafe cruiser" on Amazon instead of the Italica Bulldog 150:

Because it's pretty naked.

Not porn-type naked. I like motorcycles, but I don't want to have sex with them.

Naked as in "without a bunch of fairings."

I changed out the stock plug and coil this evening: A five-minute job that only ended up taking oh, two hours or more.

Really, changing a plug and coil just amounts to:

1. Detaching one end of the coil/wire from the plug, unscrewing/removing the plug, and screwing the new plug in (after making sure it's correctly gapped and putting some anti-seize lube on the threads);
2. Detaching the other end of the coil/wire from the ignition wiring;
3. Plugging the new coil into the ignition wiring and attaching it to the plug.

Oh, and one more thing:

Getting to the plug and coil/ignition wiring junction.

Which, in the case of the Italica Bulldog 150, required removal of the left side fairing, the handy-dandy built-in storage compartment, and the vented piece separating the storage box from the engine compartment. With some of the screws and bolts holding all that stuff in located under, or blocked by, other stuff.

And then putting all that stuff back on.

Because there doesn't appear to be a Haines Manual, etc. for this specific model, I had to play detective, and followed a few false clues at first, adding to the time. I also broke a U-Bolt that's one of four bolts holding the storage box in place. It's not strictly necessary to have that, but I'll probably pick one up some time. Oh, and I forgot to put in one fairing screw before putting the storage box in, making the relevant area inaccessible. I'll put that screw back in the next time I have the storage box out for something else, like re-jetting or replacing the carburetor.

Too early to tell whether the better plug and coil make any material difference. Maybe I'll see slightly better mileage. Maybe I'll see ever so slightly more power/speed. Maybe I'll have just wasted my time (except that I did learn a few things!). Anecdotally, she sounded ... happier ... when I took her out for a quick two-mile run afterward.

Anyway, with "naked" bikes, everything is pretty much just hanging out there in the air, making it easy to remove/replace/adjust parts. And they're just as cool-looking in their own way. 

But I still love my Bulldog. Her name, by the way, is Olivia D. Can anyone guess why? Looking at her might help:

Election 2024: Turnout Is Key, TayTay & Trav Edition

I've seen a few people online poo-pooing the possibility that Taylor Swift's endorsement of Kamala Harris could be decisive in the presidential election.

I'm not sure they're right, but they might be. The last two presidential elections have been decided by a few tens of thousands of votes in a few states, and Swift just may be the single most popular person on the planet. There's at least a possibility that, say, 100,000 Swifties who weren't really thinking that hard about voting, or about whom to vote, will 1) decide to vote and 2) decide to vote for Swift's endorsed candidate.

But I suspect more votes will be driven by the MAGA response to the endorsement than by the endorsement itself. "I'm pissed off" is a bigger political motivator than "oh, how sweet."

Trump says he likes Brittany Mahomes, wife of Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes, better than he likes Swift. Which is kind of ... weird ... but actually gets us closer to where I'm going.

Trump supporter Elon Musk's reaction to the endorsement was an offer to, um, "assist" Swift in ceasing to be childless.

That's pretty creepy in general, but wait! There's more!

Swift's beau (for nigh on a year now) is Patrick Mahomes's teammate and big-time bromantic partner, Travis Kelce. All four of them seem to be pretty tight with each other.

I'm just guessing, but I suspect Kelce, who's not known for holding back in the opinion arena any more than he does at Arrowhead Stadium, might have some thoughts on the subject of Musk's oh-so-generous offer.

I also suspect that we may be hearing from Brittany, Real Soon Now, that she's reconsidered her opinion on the presidential race.

And I suspect that Chiefs Kingdom in particular and NFL fandom in general won't take very kindly to Trump putting Brittany Mahomes in that kind of position, or to Elon Musk disrespecting the manhood of the greatest tight end in the history of the NFL.

That angle could also motivate at least a few tens of thousands of previously apathetic football fans to go from "politics, meh" to "yeah, I'm voting, and it won't be for that guy."

I could be wrong ... but at the moment, the election really does look close enough that things like these could really affect the outcome, with everything already going Harris's way.

Here's the current situation:

Harris has moved into the driver's seat. It is within her ability to win this election. All she has to do to win is work her ass off for the next 55 days and not commit any truly massive f*ckups.

Whether she can do that or not is still in question ... but what's not in question is Trump's ability to change the outcome for, from his point of view, the better. He has no such ability. He can make things worse for himself, but he can't make things better. If he wins it will be because Harris derailed herself, not because he derailed her.

Ah, Some Data ... And Better Results than Expected

Contrary to my prediction in a previous post, the Italica Bulldog didn't get 60-70 miles per gallon in its first "fuel up, read odometer, ride, fuel up again, read odometer again, do the math" check.

It got 72 miles per gallon!

That's based on only about 60 miles of travel, but I suspect the travel produced a fair average. It included "at the limit of its power on the highway," "wondering if that f**cking light is ever going to turn green," and pretty much everything in between.

And I suspect the mileage will improve as I mod the bike.

For example, if the stock plug and coil are kinda crap (likely), and the new NGK iridium spark plug and Nibbi coil I have sitting on my desk right now are substantially better (also likely), well, better spark = more complete consumption and of, and less wasted, fuel in the cylinder = less fuel needed to produce the same amount of power output from the engine.

I'm also now reasonably sure that the tank holds 1.3 gallons, not the 0.9 gallons some sites say -- I got 0.817 gallons into the tank today, and it did not look all but empty on pre-fill visual inspection.

So, 1.3 gallons @ 72 miles per gallon = 93.6 mile range. I will plan any long trips around refueling every 80 miles or so (with my 750ml fuel bottle kept full in case I take a wrong turn, a station I expected to be open isn't, etc.).

One Of My Rare Uses of Fox "News" For Evaluating A Political Event

No, I did not watch the Trump/Harris debate last night.

Yes, at some point I will probably read a transcript and watch some additional highlight reels.

But my first stop was Fox:

Why? Because in a sea of mainstream media "Harris won" stories, I wanted a bit of bias correction.

My very first impression:

Harris looked younger than her 59 years. She looked relaxed but prepared and put together. In the short sound clips, ditto.

Trump didn't just look older than his 78 years, he looked older than Joe Biden's 81, and like someone forgot to have his suit pressed and did a bad job of freshening up his spray tan right before he walked on stage. He looked tense and beset. In the short sound clips, ditto.

Notice I didn't mention any policy points. "Conservative commentator" Kendall Bailey didn't do very well trying to make Trump sound like the "winner" on those, either, but she may just not be very good at her job (I'm not familiar with her).

For a lot of voters, and not just those already leaning hard one way or the other, the first visual/aural impression is going to be impactful, maybe even decisive, before "the issues" even come into play.

More later. Probably.

Pro Tip: If You're Going To Lie About Someone, Don't Link To the Evidence That You're Lying About Him

Jeffrey A. Tucker:

[Chase Oliver] defended and pushed for vaccine mandates for business

The content of that link, for your convenience:

Red state governors are giving unemployment benefits to people who decided to quit rather than abide by private businesses such as retirement homes requesting workers be vaccinated or tested regularly

Normally when you quit, you aren't entitled to unemployment benefits.

— Chase Oliver (@ChaseForLiberty) December 28, 2021

I agree with Tucker that some in the libertarian movement, and the leadership of the Libertarian Party in particular were, at best, cowering and weak-kneed in their response to the COVID-19 variants of authoritarian cultism. Oliver may, in some ways, even resemble that remark.

On the other hand, Tucker and his Brownstone Institute, having milked the COVID-19 cow relentlessly for four years now, seem to want to retroactively blame libertarianism itself for their own inability to move on to new attention/profit centers now that Bossie's udder has pretty much run dry.

Wordle 1180 Hint

Hint: Congressional Republicans and Democrats don't actually disagree on nearly as much as they pretend to, but today's Wordle really does separate them.

Not Enough? Get the first letter of today's Wordle after the ads below.

New to Wordle? You can play it at the New York Times, and here are some thoughts on how I go about solving each day's puzzle.

First Letter: A

Video Fail #2

I took a second run at producing a "ride video" of the Bulldog 150. No dice. It didn't go terribly at first (bike walkaround, etc.), but even with my modular helmet in "fully uncovered face" position, the combination of engine and wind noise just destroyed the audio once I started toodling along, and since the ride itself was ... well, not pedestrian, I was riding, but just normal ... it's pretty worthless without legible audio. If I want to do better, I'm going to have to invest in gear (helmet cam with inside the helmet mic?) instead of just recording with my phone on a chest harness.

I doubt I'll ever be able to offer content on anything like the same level as Ryan FortNine or Yammie Noob or I Fix Shet, but I do hope to eventually get competent enough to do fun ride/review videos and maybe some "here's me installing the new part"/"here's me fixing something that broke" tutorials focused on Chinese scooters, cheap motorcycles, etc. Especially if I can get people to loan me Chinese scooters, cheap motorcycles, etc. to provide some variety. We'll see.

Week 1 NFL Results

Not a bad first week at picking game outcomes -- I went 14-2 in ESPN's "Pigskin Pick'em" game. Correct picks in green, incorrect picks in red:

• Kansas City Chiefs beat Baltimore Ravens
• Philadelphia Eagles beat Greeen Bay Packers
• Pittsburgh Steelers beat Atlanta Falcons
• Buffalo Bills beat Arizona Cardinals
• Chicago Bears beat Tennessee Titans
• Cincinnati Bengals beat New England Patriots
• Houston Texans beat Indianapolis Colts
• Miami Dolphins beat Jacksonville Jaguars
• New Orleans Saints beat Carolina Panthers
• Minnesota Vikings beat New York Giants
• Las Vegas Raiders beat Los Angeles Chargers
• Seattle Seahawks beat Denver Broncos
• Dallas Cowboys beat Cleveland Browns
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat Washington Commanders
• Detroit Lions beat Los Angeles Rams
• San Franciscon 49ers beat New York Jets

After 1 week, I am in the 97.7th percentile and ranked 19,564th from among ??? players.

Thoughts:

Of the two picks I missed, one (Raiders vs. Chargers) was an "upset" pick -- only 22% of players, including me, thought the Raiders would pull it off. On the other hand, 97% of players picked the Bengals to take down the Patriots, so I was definitely among the surprised.

I also was among the 26% of those who correctly picked the Steelers to beat the Falcons.

I only watched two games -- Chiefs vs. Ravens (of course), and Dolphins vs. Jaguars (I just happened across it while Roku-surfing). I had the Dolphins to win, but it was a close thing (20-17, with the Dolphins kicking the winning field goal at the buzzer), and the Jaguars are definitely looking like AFC contenders again.

Back with my Week 2 picks no later than Thursday, and this time I'll try to remember the asterisk next to "upset" picks.

The Italica Bulldog 150 Manifests Its First Malfunction

Yesterday in the late afternoon/early evening, I took the motorcycle out for another ride -- into town and back out, just to enjoy the day and develop my "driving in traffic" skills (my return home was during the typical rush hour period and along a typical rush hour route).

A couple of miles from home I started noticing an intermittent metallic sound, not unlike a tin can being kicked or dragged down the road. It didn't sound internal to the engine, but it was coming from that general area. I was in the "lots of cars moving fast" part of the trip rather than the "lots of cars in start-and-stop" part of the ride, and only a few minutes from home, so I chose to just get home rather than stop to investigate.

As soon as I stepped off the bike and went to put the kick stand down, I thought I could see the problem, and I was right: The spring that holds the center stand up was gone -- either broken or just slipped off somehow. The stand was falling and scraping the pavement, presumably when I'd hit a little bump; the next bump probably knocked it back upward, ending the metallic dragging sound until another bump.

I zip-tied the stand in the "up" position. I'll either get a new spring, or remove the stand entirely (it has its uses, one of which is positioning the bike for an accurate check of the oil level, but it's not strictly necessary and adds weight).

While I was zip-tying it up, I noticed that a small, capped tube/hose coming off the air filter box was loose and floppy, so I zip-tied that in place as well. Not sure what purpose that tube/hose really serves. The old 50cc had one as well, and of course I pulled its air filter box off and replaced the whole apparatus with a cone filter, which I intend to do on this bike as well ... soon. But that modification comes after installing the NGK iridium spark plug and Nibbi performance coil, both of which should arrive today.

In a rare instance of foresight on my part, I ordered a big box of zip-ties during the period when I was shopping for motorcycle gear/accessories, assuming that I'd need some. Once I have the fairings off to do stuff inside the engine compartment, I plan to attend to any wiring/cabling that isn't snug and secure.

Update: I've added a selection of center stand springs, among other motorcycle stuff that I haven't bought yet, to my Amazon Wish List. After the layout for the motorcycle, taxes, tags, full-face helmet, etc., I'm watching my wallet at the moment. I'll get to this stuff eventually ... unless others decide to get to it for me first.