Senate Democrats are worried pollsters are once again undercounting the Trump vote and say Vice President Harris’s slim lead in battleground states, especially Pennsylvania, is cause for serious concern. ... Democratic lawmakers are growing nervous that their party may once again feel lulled into a false sense of optimism amid polls showing Harris with small but consistent leads in three crucial states that make up the “blue wall”: Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
As you may recall, one factor in my 2016 "Trump is gonna win this prediction was my perception that pollsters weren't reaching a particular demographic -- rural people who didn't usually vote and who may have "cut the cord" on land line phones -- and were thus under-counting Trump's likely support.
My Scientific Wild Ass Guess onthe effect of that was that in states with significant rural populations where Clinton was polling less than five points ahead it was in reality at best a tie, and if she was polling less than three points ahead she was actually behind.
I think at least part of that polling problem has been solved -- I'm a rural resident who's been reached by pollsters on my cell phone rather than a land line in every election since that one.
As for the other part, people who didn't usually vote prior to 2016, but got out to vote for Trump in 2016 and again in 2020, are probably in pollsters' "likely voter" databases now.
But there was another factor in my model, and it remains there. That factor is enthusiasm, and no matter how they try, pollsters don't seem to be able to capture that as well. My method is anecdotal.
In 2016, even actually in Gainesville (hippy dippy doo university-centered city that definitely trends Gainesville), I barely saw any Hillary Clinton signs or bumper stickers.
But heading west out of Gainesville toward "the sticks," you could pull over at just about any random point and see at least on Trump sign somewhere ahead of you, behind you, or next to you. It may have been possible to find a point along Highway 24 between Gainesville and Cedar Key to find a stopping spot with no Trump signs in view, but I wouldn't have bet money on it.
Probably half the pickup trucks had Trump stickers on them, and I frequently saw a pickup truck driving up and down the highway with a HUGE Trump flag affixed to a pole in its bed. I don't know if they were going places or just literally "showing the flag," but I probably saw that truck at least 20 of the times I had occasion to head west from my home for more than a mile on Highway 24 (I live right off the highway, about five miles west of Gainesville).
Even in hippy dippy doo Gainesville, Trump signs/stickers probably outnumbered Clinton signs/stickers by at least ten to one. There were periodic. "sign waves" on main roads, with crowds of 10-20 people waving Trump signs. The full extent of active Clinton campaigning that I saw first-hand was at the fall Pride festival downtown, where I ran into none other than Debbie Wasserman Schultz, personally campaigning (far from her House district) for her party's nominee.
This year, I'm seeing far more Harris/Walz signs and stickers in town than I saw for either Clinton in 2016 or Biden in 2020.
Out of town, I'm not seeing the truck with the flag, I'm seeing fewer Trump stickers/signs than I did in 2016 or 2020, and most those I'm seeing are age-faded and/or in front of some, but not all, of the same houses that had them out in 2016 and/or 2020.
What are you seeing in your area?
In anything like a close election, a higher percentage of enthused voters than of "have a preference, but meh" voters will actually cast ballots.
Trump won in 2016, but his actively enthused base is smaller now than it was then.
Not just because of his crazy talk or mean tweets, but because he's no long the shiny new exciting thing who activates previously inactive voters.
More party-centric Republican-leaning voters notice that Trump has, on balance, hurt the GOP down-ticket. Remember what it was like when Obama was in office and Trump wasn't a candidate for office? The GOP took both houses of Congress and held them for eight years.
Meanwhile, Democratic-leaning voters seem to have worked up a reasonable leve of enthusiasm for Harris -- and a number of states have ballot issues that also excite them.
Yes, Harris could shit the bed in some creative new way, and kill that enthusiasm.
But the Trump campaign is treading water and trying not to drown, not coming up with anything that might re-kindle the 2016 enthusiasm or even the 2020 enthusiasm among those for who it has faded.
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