Fall/Winter Betters/Worses

When I lived further north, I wasn't a big fan of fall or winter.

I grew up in the Lebanon, Missouri area, where the National Gardening Association tells me there's an 80% chance of the temperature falling below 32 degrees no later than October 26. So autumn wasn't necessarily just cool; it was more likely actively cold.

I can handle cold if necessary -- I've slept in snow caves and I think my record low tent camping temperature was six degrees below zero -- but it's my least favorite weather condition, especially when combined with precipitation.

In my current neighborhood, the chance of a freeze doesn't hit 80% until December 23; there's only a 20% chance of it happening by November 22. For today, Halloween, the historical average temperature is a low of 55 and a high of 78. This Halloween is actually unseasonably cold, with a forecast low of 40 degrees and a high of 69 ... but that's pretty nice.

Are there down sides to fall and winter in north central Florida? The only two I can think of are that very few trees change color (I like northern autumn foliage), and that my son misses snow (we've only seen flurries here, and that only once).

For the most part, "winter" in Florida is dry and the temperatures aren't extreme. Perfect for year-round motorcycling. I admit it gets a little chilly at 55 miles per hour on one of the area's few annual 25-degree mornings, but nothing a little layering doesn't mitigate. I got the leather jacket, etc. out earlier this month, but haven't had to really bundle up yet.

I see fewer bikes on the road as the temperatures come down, but there are always some. If I still lived in Missouri, every ride would be preceded by calculations of my chances of getting caught in "wintry mix" (snow and sleet), and I'd likely forgo more rides than I took.

Wordle 1595 Hint

Hint: When I regard today's Wordle, I feel disgust and revulsion ... and not just because it took me five guesses to solve.

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First Letter: A

Wordle 1594 Hint

Hint: Some tools spin a blade, bit, etc. This tool spins the object being worked on.

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First Letter: L

NFL Week 9 Picks

The Baltimore Ravens and Miami Dolphins open Week 9 of the NFL season tomorrow night. My picks:

• Baltimore Ravens beat Miami Dolphins
• Chicago Bears beat Cincinnati Bengals*
• Detroit Lions beat Minnesota Vikings
• Green Bay Packers beat Carolina Panthers
• Los Angeles Chargers beat Tennessee Titans
• New England Patriots beat Atlanta Falcons
• San Francisco 49ers beat New York Giants
• Indianapolis Colts beat Pittsburgh Steelers
• Denver Broncos beat Houston Texans
• Jacksonville Jaguars beat Las Vegas Raiders
• Los Angeles Rams beat New Orleans Saints
• Kansas City Chiefs beat Buffalo Bills*
• Seattle Seahawks beat Washington Commanders
• Dallas Cowboys beat Arizona Cardinals

"Upset" picks --  predicted outcomes that go against the majority picks among those playing ESPN's Pigskin Pick'em game as of the time I make my picks -- are marked with asterisks. If I change any picks, I will do so before the games in question kick off and clearly mark changes as changes in updates to this post.

Wordle 1593 Hint

Hint: Fort McHenry's vermilion missile optics.

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First Letter: G

NFL Week 8 Results

This week I went for eight picks correct, five incorrect, and moved up to the 69.9th percentile among players of ESPN's Pigskin Pick'em Game. Correct picks in green, incorrect picks in red:

• Los Angeles Chargers beat Minnesota Vikings
• Atlanta Falcons beat Miami Dolphins
• Cincinnati Bengals beat New York Jets
• New England Patriots beat Cleveland Browns
• Philadelphia Eagles beat New York Giants
• Buffalo Bills beat Carolina Panthers
• Chicago Bears beat Baltimore Ravens*
• San Francisco 49ers beat Houston Texans
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat New Orleans Saints
• Denver Broncos beat Dallas Cowboys
• Indianapolis Colts beat Tennessee Titans
• Pittsburgh Steelers beat Green Bay Packers*
• Kansas City Chiefs beat Washington Commanders

When I picked the Bears to beat the Ravens, it was an upset pick; by the time the game kicked off, it was the majority pick. So 55% of the field ended up wrong on that one.

As for the Steelers-Packers game, as much as I think signing Aaron Rodgers was a dumb idea for the Steelers, they had been playing fairly well and I thought they'd have a little extra gas in the tank to take on Rodgers's former team. But no dice.

Wordle 1592 Hint

Hint: It's a little early to deck the halls just yet, but maybe it's about time to shop for the decking material.

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First Letter: H

Wordle 1591 HInt

Hint: Five-letter shorthand for "malodorous."

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First Letter: F

Wordle 1590 Hint

Hint: One might also call today's Wordle "zoftig." 

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First Letter: P

Back to Two Bikes, and the New House ...

 ... which, unfortunately, I haven't figured out how to ride simultaneously.

The Lifan KP Mini is back in action, with a new gasket, repaired bolt threads, etc. Rode it about 10 miles today and the "doesn't want to downshift" problem seems to be gone. It may have been as simple as the thickness of the RTV material I used as a temporary gasket moving the clutch just a little out of tolerance.

The Italica Bulldog 150 is street legal again (I had transferred its tags to the Mini and had to re-tag it once I decided it wasn't going to sell). I'll use it as a "town bike" (no shifting required, and a handy-dandy storage compartment for small grocery runs, etc.) until/unless my daughter decides to get her motorcycle license and inherit it.

We're still supposed to close on the new house on November 6, but it's getting some well work done to pass inspection. During the week, I've taken the opportunity to explore (on the Bulldog) the new neighborhood. It's 1.8 miles from the driveway entrance to the main street of the nearest town (population, about 1,100), all paved road except for 0.2 miles of cow path from the driveway to pavement. Call it two miles to the nearest grocery store, gas station, restaurants, etc.

I've been window-shopping for a cheap "garage" big enough to hold the two motorcycles, a deck box that I keep parts, tools, gear, and accessories in, and maybe our household's push lawn mower. A riding mower will be in the budget as next spring approaches; it should require one mowing at most between move-in and first freeze, which I'll probably just hire done.

I suspect Tamara will want to have a "real" carport put in at some point, but that would be next year. As will bamboo cuttings to turn one fence line into "privacy fence," saplings for a small orchard, and planting (February through March, mostly) for what I expect to be a fairly large vegetable garden. I'll try to have the chicken enclosure in good shape for habitation by spring as well.

Wordle 1589 Hint

Hint: A measurement, or an instrument for measurement, or the act of measuring. 

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First Letter: G

The Only Thing Wrong About Donald Trump's Pardon of Changpeng Zhao ...

... is that Zhao committed nothing resembling a real crime, shouldn't have been charged, shouldn't have been jailed, and therefore shouldn't need a "pardon."

His supposed "crime" was "violating the [Bank Secrecy Act] by causing Binance to violate the BSA by causing Binance to fail to implement an effective anti-money laundering program."

In other words, he didn't spy on his customers for the US government. Nobody should spy on their customers for the US government, and not doing so isn't a "crime," it's baseline ethical behavior.

Good on Trump. Hopefully he'll pardon the equally un-guilty Ian Freeman, too.

Wordle 1588 Hint

Hint: You say potato, I say cassava ... you say taro, I say yam ... potato, cassava, taro, yam ... let's cook the whole thing and eat it. 

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First Letter: T

Wordle 1587 Hint

Hint: Your marching orders: Think of today's Wordle as a bit penetrating. 

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First Letter: D

NFL Week 8 Picks

Week 8 of the NFL season kicks off tomorrow night with the Minnesota Vikings playing the Los Angeles Chargers. My picks:

• Los Angeles Chargers beat Minnesota Vikings
• Atlanta Falcons beat Miami Dolphins
• Cincinnati Bengals beat New York Jets
• New England Patriots beat Cleveland Browns
• Philadelphia Eagles beat New York Giants
• Buffalo Bills beat Carolina Panthers
• Chicago Bears beat Baltimore Ravens*
• San Francisco 49ers beat Houston Texans
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat New Orleans Saints
• Denver Broncos beat Dallas Cowboys
• Indianapolis Colts beat Tennessee Titans
• Pittsburgh Steelers beat Green Bay Packers*
• Kansas City Chiefs beat Washington Commanders

"Upset" picks --  predicted outcomes that go against the majority picks among those playing ESPN's Pigskin Pick'em game as of the time I make my picks -- are marked with asterisks. If I change any picks, I will do so before the games in question kick off and clearly mark changes as changes in updates to this post.

Wordle 1586 Hint

Hint: Evel Knievel's stock in motorcycle performance trade. 

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First Letter: S

NFL Week 7 Results

This week I went 10 correct of 15, and moved up to the 68.4th percentile among players of ESPN's Pigskin Pick'em Game. My picks, labeled green for correct, red for incorrect:

• Pittsburgh Steelers beat Cincinnati Bengals
• Jacksonville Jaguars beat Los Angeles Rams*
• Chicago Bears beat New Orleans Saints
• Miami Dolphins beat Cleveland Browns
• New England Patriots beat Tennessee Titans
• Kansas City Chiefs beat Las Vegas Raiders
• Philadelphia Eagles beat Minnesota Vikings
• Carolina Panthers beat New York Jets
• Denver Broncos beat New York Giants
• Los Angeles Chargers beat Indianapolis Colts*
• Washington Commanders beat Dallas Cowboys
• Green Bay Packers beat Arizona Cardinals
• San Francisco 49ers beat Atlanta Falcons
• Detroit Lions beat Tampa Bay Buccaneers
• Seattle Seahawks beat Houston Texans

Pride often goeth before a fall, so I'm not putting much stock in the whole THE CHIEFS ARE BACK, BABY! thing.

Yes, they had a good week ... against a banged-up 2-5 Raiders squad.

Yes, they seem to be clicking on offense now that they have Xavier Worthy and Rashee Rice back, with some newer players having picked up valuable experience and field time during their absences.

Yes, Travis Kelce and Isaiah Pacheco both seem to be back in form and Mahomes is showing the improv/scramble panache he's known for.

But we're still less than halfway through the season and there's plenty of time for the wheels to come off.

Wordle 1585 Hint

Hint: When "get the lead out!" is literal (e.g. chelation therapy) rather than figurative. 

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First Letter: D

A Sunday Drive

We had some fairly heavy thunderstorms in the area yesterday. I've seen worse, even setting aside actual hurricanes, but enough rain that it seemed like a good idea to drive out to the new house (closing is in early November unless something goes south) and see how it fares in inclement weather.

The narrow paved "tunnel of trees" road approaching it had a little tree debris, but not much. There were two significant areas of standing water, but it didn't completely cover the road.

Turning onto the cow path, game trail, or whatever you want to call our "street" was a somewhat different story. In the 200 yards or so from the turnoff to the house's driveway there were two areas of standing water, all the way across the road, 30-50 feet long ... but not terribly deep. We didn't go past the house, but I suspect it gets a lot worse after it curves and becomes all deep ruts and sugar sand. No reason for us to go down that way, ever, unless we are visiting a neighbor, though.

The house/lot were in fine shape. The lot has a mild slope, with the house toward the top of it. I don't see any likely situation in which we'd have flooding (and our floors are four feet or more about the ground anyway). While there are lots of tall trees, none are within falling distance of the house. I suspect there used to be some, and that that's why the roof is only a few years old.

There are parts of north central Florida where I suspect anyone without a four-wheel-drive truck might be stuck for a few days after a major storm. Our place has two decent routes of egress once you get off the cowpath -- maybe 3/4 of a mile to a fairly major road, only 1/4 mile to a county road that's not great but that a right turn on will get you into the town of Archer (which has a supermarket and a couple of c-stores) after maybe a mile. So, walkable if need be.

My main weather worry about the place would be that power/cable outages are likely to last longer since it's further away from a main drag than our current place, with lines that serve fewer customers, making them lower priority, and that run through thick forest/jungle instead of through nicely cleared rights of way.

So, a generator will be on my shopping list, and I'm also leaning toward Starlink instead of cable, even if our local cable provider is out there by the time we move in (their estimated arrival is the end of October).

Wordle 1584 Hint

Hint: You'd probably bend over backwards to avoid this underworld locale. 

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First Letter: L

Wordle 1583 Hint

Hint: One of Plato's perfect Forms. 

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First Letter: I

Minor, and Not Unexpected, Disappointment

Went to the second (so far as I know) "No Kings" event in Gainesville this morning.

Seemed bigger than the last one -- I'd guess attendance topped 5,000.

Unfortunately, it was even more "vote, and vote Democrat" oriented than the previous event.

A reasonable amount of attention was given to the US regime's funding of Israel, the US regime's military occupations of American cities, and US regime gangs' abductions of alleged immigrants ...

... none of which will be fixed by voting, let alone voting Democrat.

There seemed to be a mostly fake "commitment to non-violence." Fake because most of the people, as best I can tell, have no problem at all with violence if their political party of preference has control of the regime's infrastructure and makes that infrastructure the violent instrument.

But hey, maybe some of the people who showed up today are at least moving toward anarchism. Maybe some of them will notice later  on that once the Democrats get back in power, every bad government thing happening now will continue happening and new bad government things will get invented (just like most of the bad government things Trump is doing now were being done by Democrats before he started doing them).

I saw a grand total of one pro-Trump counter-protester, driving down the street flying a "Trump 2024 -- Take America Back" flag. No violence that I saw, but I was preparing myself for some when I heard a large number of motorcycles come near and all shut down their engines at the same time. Never did figure out what was up with that, but nothing in the way of a brawl developed that I could detect.

Anyway, it was a nice ride into town for the rally and back home, with some rousing music, etc. in between. Not a bad Saturday morning.

Wordle 1582 Hint

Hint: As the woke youngsters might put it, a "safe space;" a refuge. 

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First Letter: H

I'd Forgotten How Much I Loved Riding the Bulldog 150 ...

I went ahead and re-plated it until the Lifan KP Mini is back in the shape I prefer -- still having intermittent down-shift problems and it seems silly to keep messing with the clutch cable when the cover that cable's attached to will be coming off for a gasket replacement, etc. in the next few days.

Yesterday, I rode it over to the new house (assuming nothing goes wrong with the deal) and back just because. That's about three miles of "country highway," a left turn, and 1/2 or 3/4 of a mile down a narrow, paved road that's basically a "tunnel through thick trees" before the turnoff onto the cow path that the new house is on.

Speed limit, 30 mph. It seems like a bad idea to publicly confess that I exceeded the legal speed limit even a little, but let's just say that part of the ride was great fun.

On the way back, I definitely adhered to the posted speed limit. That was probably a good thing: A deer materialized out of the trees maybe 50 feet in front of me and plodded, completely unconcerned, across the road. It didn't even notice me until it was nearly across, then just gave me a dirty look before disappearing back into the jungle. If I'd been doing 50mph instead of 30mph, this tale might have taken a negative turn.

Anyway, I like the control that a manual transmission offers. I also like that the Mini bottoms out at about 75 miles per gallon, while that's the Bulldog's top mileage. But "twist and go, no gears to worry about" is also lots of fun.

Wordle 1581 Hint

Hint: Remember that old movie, The Dirty Dozen? Think of today's Wordle as a sequel, The Disgusting 12 Dozen. 

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First Letter: G

Wordle 1580 Hint

Hint: Spiteful (with a rather feline demeanor).

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First Letter: C

I Hate Taxes

But I must admit, as tax collectors' offices go, the one in Alachua County, Florida is the least worst one I've ever dealt with.

I took me longer to make the five-mile trip there this morning than it did to go in, get sent to a counter, and transfer the tag from the old 50cc Italica scooter (which I've decided to scrap) to the Italica Bulldog 150 (which I've decided not to sell, after having transferred its tag to the Lifan KP Mini 150. All that took 10 minutes, tops, and was much less expensive than I expected.

So now I have two running motorcycles* with legal plates. Maybe I'll see if I can work up some Evel Knievel style "ride both at the same time" stunt.

* But I still haven't figured out the down-shifting problem; still assume it's the clutch cable.

NFL Week 7 Picks

Week 7 of the NFL season kicks off tomorrow night with the Pittsburgh Steelers vs. the Cincinnati Bengals. My picks:

• Pittsburgh Steelers beat Cincinnati Bengals
• Jacksonville Jaguars beat Los Angeles Rams*
• Chicago Bears beat New Orleans Saints
• Miami Dolphins beat Cleveland Browns
• New England Patriots beat Tennessee Titans
• Kansas City Chiefs beat Las Vegas Raiders
• Philadelphia Eagles beat Minnesota Vikings
• Carolina Panthers beat New York Jets
• Denver Broncos beat New York Giants
• Los Angeles Chargers beat Indianapolis Colts*
• Washington Commanders beat Dallas Cowboys
• Green Bay Packers beat Arizona Cardinals
• San Francisco 49ers beat Atlanta Falcons
• Detroit Lions beat Tampa Bay Buccaneers
• Seattle Seahawks beat Houston Texans

"Upset" picks --  predicted outcomes that go against the majority picks among those playing ESPN's Pigskin Pick'em game as of the time I make my picks -- are marked with asterisks. If I change any picks, I will do so before the games in question kick off and clearly mark changes as changes in updates to this post.

Wordle 1579 Hint

Hint: An imitation, humorous or hoax-ish.

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First Letter: S

Sometimes a Defective Part Can Solve an Ongoing Irritation

Or even two ongoing irritations.

Because I am a cheapskate, I keep falling for inexpensive bar end mirror offerings for the Lifan KP Mini 150.

One mirror of my previous set -- the left side -- didn't want to get tight and stay tight, and it was hard to set it to the correct angle for glancing at anyway. I was always having to lean a little to really get a good look. The right side mirror was perfect; it stayed in place, and I could just move my eyes/head a little and see what I needed to see.

I was buying a few things on Amazon Haul (that site's "Temu competitor," cheap stuff, free shipping with a $25 minimum order) and decided to try out a pair of $11 mirrors from there.

The left side mirror went on just fine. Nice tight ball-joint setup that stays in place and lets me see what I need to see with a minimal downard glance.

The right side just didn't want to tighten/expand like it should. So I put the old mirror back on. And now I have a near-perfect mirror configuration when it comes to functionality.

AND!

That setup is asymmetric.

I would characterize myself as "high-functioning OCD" in some respects, and one thing that bugs me is asymmetry where it doesn't belong. If two objects are supposed to be the same distance from a particular point and one is slightly off that mark, it just really bugs me to look at it.

But if a relationship is supposed to be asymmetric, it doesn't bother me at all.

A pair of identical motorcycle mirrors feels like the two should be symmetric in placement, but of course that's not the case. Even ideally, if the rider is perfectly centered on the seat, one mirror will be tilted out further than the other to produce the correct view, since with the right mirror you're mostly looking behind yourself in your own lane, while with the left mirror you're looking behind you but need the field of reflection to cover several feet further left. Still annoys me, though.

Now that I've got two different kinds of mirrors, the placement is naturally asymmetric, so it irritates that brain defect of mine just a little less.

So, that's kind of a win too.

NFL Week 6 Results

From "terrible" week to "not great, but I've seen worse" week -- eight right, seven wrong. I remain in the 65.xth percentile on among players of ESPN's Pigskin Pick'em game. My picks, labeled green for correct, red for incorrect:

• Philadelphia Eagles beat New York Giants
• Denver Broncos beat New York Jets
• Indianapolis Colts beat Arizona Cardinals
• Los Angeles Chargers beat Miami Dolphins
• Pittsburgh Steelers beat Cleveland Browns
• Dallas Cowboys beat Carolina Panthers
• Jacksonville Jaguars beat Seattle Seahawks
• Los Angeles Rams beat Baltimore Ravens
• New England Patriots beat New Orleans Saints
• Tennessee Titans beat Las Vegas Raiders*
• San Francisco 49ers beat Tampa Bay Buccaneers*
• Green Bay Packers beat Cincinnati Bengals
• Kansas City Chiefs beat Detroit Lions*
• Buffalo Bills beat Atlanta Falcons
• Washington Commanders beat Chicago Bears

Of my three "upset" picks (where I differed from the majority of the ESPN game's players), only one panned out ... and the only reason I picked the Chiefs to beat the Lions is that I always pick the Chiefs to beat anyone. While I wasn't surprised to see the Chiefs finally start pulling rabbits out of hats for this season, it wasn't the pick I would have made on a sober assessment of likelihoods from the two teams' performances leading into the game.

Wordle 1578 Hint

Hint: A public square in Roman times, a digital conversation space in ours.

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First Letter: F

Yes, The Lions Got Robbed

One of the pseudonymous trolls around here (or maybe the only one) likes to complain about the Kansas City Chiefs cheating, or buying off the refs, or something (the complaints aren't really coherent enough to describe with any more specificity).

As a Chiefs fan, I've seen games where it looked pretty obvious to me that the refs let one team get by with more than the other. Sometimes that team is the Chiefs, sometimes it's their opponents, and it's not always obvious whether it's just poor officiating or something more sinister.

In Sunday night's game against the Chiefs, the Lions got robbed of a touchdown on the basis of an obscure rule that I'd never heard of (and that the Lions apparently just didn't know about either):

They ran a trick play in which quarterback Jared Goff took the ball from under center (as opposed to e.g. shotgun formation) ... but really didn't. Instead, he turned to his left, started running, and the center snapped the ball to running back David Montgomery, who passed it to Goff for a touchdown.

The touchdown was invalidated because, per that obscure rule, Goff was supposed to take a step back and pause for some unknown amount of time before he could run and be eligible to be thrown the ball.

OK, look: The rules are the rules, but can we all admit that in addition to being obscure, that's one idiotic rule? Is there a rule that a safety is only allowed to make an interception if he has tied his shoes in the last 30 seconds? Or that in order to throw a challenge flag, a coach must first don a tutu and dance a minimum of one minute of Swan Lake?

And I have to admit it's kind of odd that the Chiefs got flagged 13 times last week, and not a single time this week. Usually Jawaan Taylor alone racks up several "false start" or "illegal formation" fouls because he can't seem to figure out how to line up next to the other players. If Patrick Mahomes had run the same play with Isaiah Pacheco that Goff ran with Montgomery, would the refs have so much as blinked?

That Clutch ...

After an oil change, which involved removing the engine cover (the clutch cable attaches to that cover), the Lifan KP Mini 150 started not always wanting to downshift.

Tried adjusting the cable, and things seemed fine on a test ride. But then the next time I went out for a longer ride, same problem.

Adjusted again. Did another test ride. Seemed fine. I haven't been out on a longer ride yet.

And I'm not worried yet. I'm not big on coincidences, so I don't think it could be anything but a cable adjustment problem. And that cover will have to come off again anyway, as soon as the new gasket arrives (at which time my mechanic friend will drill and/or heli-coil the stripped threads). I'm keeping my ride time to a minimum until I get that done anyway. The TVP seems to be holding, no visible leaks or oil loss, but I'd rather not tempt fate.

I may get around to putting a new plate on the Italica Bulldog 150 between now and then. Since I didn't get serious inquiries, I took down the listing. I'd have rather had the money, but I can ride it for another 9 months or so and then put it back up for sale right before the UF students come back from summer break, when I should have a better shot at getting something for it. In the meantime, it is fun to ride and it's also more practical to ride in town traffic. Also, my daughter is considering getting her motorcycle license and that would make a nice little "to and from work" vehicle for her on sunny days.

Wordle 1577 Hint

Hint: Edward Teach's was black; Frederick I's was red.

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First Letter: B

Wordle 1576 Hint

Hint: An injury (or the "up" state of a baseball pitcher's body just before actually throwing the ball).

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First Letter: W

House Inspections Today

One issue that absolutely has to be fixed, but other than that, nothing that should make the various powers who decide whether we get the mortgage uneasy.

The one issue is that the well's pressure switch is screwed up. The house has been vacant for, I understand, more than six months. Best guess, ants got into the pressure switch box over the summer and gummed up the works. If I'd had a wire brush with me I'd have just cleaned that up myself to test the diagnosis, but instead the seller will have to get a well guy out there to diagnose/fix the problem. Which is actually good, since that would likely uncover any other well problems.

Pro tip if you have a well (I've seen this problem before): Stick some mothballs in the pressure switch box. Bugs don't like that and will stay out of it. I'll probably build a little well house around the pump/tank, both because we get a few freezing days each year (it's close enough to an electrified storage shed that I can run a heat lamp if necessary) and just because.

Fortunately, there was enough tank pressure for the inspectors to run water, check for leaks (two minor ones under sinks), etc., but once the well is working we'll also have an actual water quality test (they have to run the water for 15-30 minutes before taking their samples). I expect it to be fine -- the house is only a couple of miles from where we live now and the water from this local aquifer area is pretty good. There's a filter system on the kitch sink, but we'll have to buy a new filter for it. I'm the only peasant in this household who drinks tap water anyway. Everyone else insists on paying for the bottled stuff.

The mobile home is 20 years old but has a recent metal roof, recent vinyl flooring, recent central air/heat unit, recent water heater, fairly new included appliances (fridge, range, microwave, dishwasher, washer/dryer), the well tank looks fairly recent, and it's overall in great shape. Not perfect, but no house -- especially a mobile home -- is perfect at 20. And the lot is great.

Upcoming: The First Actual Motorcyle Repair (and Bulldog Reconsideration)

The Lifan KP Mini 150 got its thousand-mile oil change last night.

That involves not just draining and replacing oil, but dealing with what I consider the one piece of terrible engineering on the bike: The "oil filter" is a little metal screen that you have to remove the engine/clutch cover to get to so you can clean it.

The first time I did that, I broke a bolt off when replacing the cover because I incorrectly assumed that when you have two pieces of metal with a gasket between them, the bolts should be torqued down tight. No biggie; I replaced the low-quality regular bolts with high-quality hex-head bolts at a cost of less than $10.

This time, there were two problems.

One was that the paper-thin gasket was already breaking up. Again, no biggie: I used TVP as an interim gasket and I'll order a real gasket for next time.

The other, presumably from the over-torquing last time, is that two of the bolt holes are stripped.

Not an emergency (I ran and rode the bike with no leaks), but worrisome.

Instead of going amateur hour again and trying to drill and/or helicoil those holes myself, I'm going to pay my mechanic friend to do it (and that's when I'll clean the TVP off and put in the new gasket).

The good news is that there was almost nothing caught in that screen. I see no reason to remove the cover and clean the screen every time I change the oil. In fact, when I asked around among the online rider group for the KP Mini, several people with 10,000 or more miles on their bikes claimed that they had never done that. Since I want the longest engine life I can get, I'll probably do it every 5,000 miles or so  just to be safe (I'll be changing the oil every 1,000-1500 miles), but not every time.

So far, the "cheap bolts, cheap engine case material" thing is the only issue that's made me ask myself whether I should have maybe just spent the same amount of money on a 20-year-old Honda.

I was planning to also put on the "performance" air filter and try to get a perfect tune on the stock carb last night, but the oil change went from a 15-minute thing to a 1-hour thing, so that will wait.

I also have a "performance" carb to install, and a 16-tooth front sprocket that supposedly fits this bike, but I decided to wait a little while longer. The other day, I managed to get 66 miles per hour out of the bike; my goal is 70+, and I may get that just from the performance air and well-tuned carb (using my mechanic friend's O2 sensor plug-in that lets you dial in the perfect fuel/air ratio).

So far, the only bites I've had on my listing of the Italica Bulldog 150 have been 1) a guy who made two appointments to look at it and showed up for neither, and 2) a lady from 50 miles away who doesn't have a motorcycle license or a even a driver's license because she has to get "medical clearance" of some kind, and also "can't get a plate" because reasons, but wants something to get to and from work on, and a 35mph, 50cc scooter isn't fast enough, and would I take coins and jewelry or do I accept credit cards?

The guy not showing up is obvious. As for the lady, I really don't give a shit whether someone has a card from the gummint giving them permission to use the roads, or a metal rectangle certifying that they've paid a tax ... but the vibe I got was that she would absolutely be dangerous to herself, and probably to others, on the road. I don't want serious injury or death on my karma tab. So I just said "sorry, we can't do business."

New plan: I'll probably go ahead and just get a plate for the Bulldog again (I transferred its old one to the Mini). Then I'll have a "no shifting town bike" for trips deep into Gainesville where there's lots of stop-and-go and 20mph streets, and a "country bike" for  (usually lightly traveled) 60mph highways out here in the sticks.

I'd rather just make some money back on the Bulldog, so I may just see if my favorite scooter shop will take it on consignment, but I'd forgotten what a pain in the ass it is to sell a vehicle (and the vehicle having two wheels seems to be a multiplier of said pain).

Update, Saturday 1pm-ish: New issue that I think  I know the answer to. Sometimes (not always) the bike isn't wanting to downshift from 3rd to 2nd or 2nd to neutral and/or 1st. Since the clutch cable attaches to the case cover that I had off last night, I suspect that I re-attached it just a tiny bit off from its previous position and isn't engaging sometimes at those gears. I'll figure it out and get it adjusted. Got that gasket ordered. Rode the bike to the new house for inspection this morning, and back, no oil leaks that I can tell.

Wordle 1575 Hint

Hint: Pancakes plural, short or tall.

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First Letter: S

The Usual Periodic Crass Commercialism

I'm a very satisfied Proton Mail customer, and yes, that is an affiliate link -- if you sign up for any of their paid plans, I get some credit toward my own monthly payments to them for my "Mail Plus" plan. They do offer a "free" account option, and you get a free month of "Mail Plus" via that affiliate link.

They offer email (including PGP encryption), a calendar, online storage and document editor a la Google Drive, a password manager, a cryptocurrency wallet, a proprietary AI, and VPN. I use the email, calendar, password manager, and VPN (I may eventually start using the drive/docs thing more; I'm very happy with Edge as a crypto wallet and have no plans to move).

I had occasion to think about the VPN this morning because there's a review of it in Wired, which calls it "The Best VPN for Most People":

Cheaper than most VPNs. Excellent free plan. Fastest speeds I’ve tested. Full-featured apps on most platforms, including TV operating systems. Convenient connection profiles. Public track record of user privacy protection.

The review does, however, also note that the VPN's "browser extensions and Linux client need some love," and that "some features aren’t available across all clients."

The VPN features that come with "Mail Plus" are the same as with the "free" plan, so don't get that particular level of paid plan just for the VPN.

I use the VPN's Linux desktop client rather than a browser extension. It lets you choose from servers in Canada, Japan, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Romania, Singapore, and the US. More countries available if you pay for the VPN service. It also has a strict "no logs" policy, in addition to being located in a country with strong privacy laws (Switzerland).

I've only tried a few VPN options, but Proton is my go-to when I want a VPN ... which, admittedly, is almost never. It works well. Whether it works better than some other offerings, I can't really speak to.

Wordle 1574 Hint

Hint: A common mechanical advantage device.

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First Letter: L

What Is It With The "Back Pay" Nonsense?

A couple of days ago, per Axios:

Furloughed federal workers aren't guaranteed compensation for their forced time off during the government shutdown, according to a draft White House memo described to Axios by three sources.

If you've never been caught in a layoff at, say, a private sector factory, you might be under the impression that laid-off employees normally get "back pay" when they get the call to come back to work.

They don't.

They can file for unemployment benefits, which kick in after one week of being without work (at least in Missouri, and at least as of the mid-1990s, the last place and time I had occasion to know).

They can go look for another job instead of waiting around.

But whether they're off for a week or a month, they don't get paid for the "forced time off" when they return.

Or, rather, not in any private sector situation I've ever seen. I guess there could be outliers.

When I built boats for a living, the factory cut a shift and I got laid off. I filed for unemployment benefits, and immediately started looking for another job. IIRC, I collected one check before I got hired elsewhere, and when the boat factory called to let me know things were back on again, I told them to find someone else.

When I worked at a union food factory, there was a short (one week) partial layoff, and as a very junior employee, I got sent home. Since I knew it would only be one week, I knew there would be no unemployment checks; since it was a good job, I waited it out instead of filing applications at McDonald's, etc.

In neither case did the company say "here's your pay for the time you weren't working for us," and why would they do that?

Federal employees, of course, consider themselves Very Special and Important, such that if they're "furloughed" for a week or a month or a year, they should get paid for that time off after they start working again.

They shouldn't.

I haven't closely read the details of the law in question, and it will be up to the courts to sort out whether "back pay" for time off is a fixed obligation or just something Congress can do, but just as a general principle, if you're not working and you're not using your fringe benefits (vacation and sick leave), it's silly to expect to get paid.

It's also silly to expect your job to continue to exist at all just because you consider yourself Very Special and Important. If Trump wants to, and legally can, fire a bunch of federal employees during the shutdown and never call them back, I'm all for that.

NFL Week 6 Picks

The Philadelphia Eagles and the New York Giants kick off week six of the NFL season tonight. My picks:

• Philadelphia Eagles beat New York Giants
• Denver Broncos beat New York Jets
• Indianapolis Colts beat Arizona Cardinals
• Los Angeles Chargers beat Miami Dolphins
• Pittsburgh Steelers beat Cleveland Browns
• Dallas Cowboys beat Carolina Panthers
• Jacksonville Jaguars beat Seattle Seahawks
• Los Angeles Rams beat Baltimore Ravens
• New England Patriots beat New Orleans Saints
• Tennessee Titans beat Las Vegas Raiders*
• San Francisco 49ers beat Tampa Bay Buccaneers*
• Green Bay Packers beat Cincinnati Bengals
• Kansas City Chiefs beat Detroit Lions*
• Buffal Bills beat Atlanta Falcons
• Washington Commanders beat Chicago Bears

"Upset" picks --  predicted outcomes that go against the majority picks among those playing ESPN's Pigskin Pick'em game as of the time I make my picks -- are marked with asterisks. If I change any picks, I will do so before the games in question kick off and clearly mark changes as changes in updates to this post.

Wordle 1573 Hint

Hint: Think boy detectives, or Mickey Rooney.

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First Letter: H

Why I Advocated for NOT Buying a House in Alachua County

One of the houses we looked at -- the one I wanted to buy -- in Gilchrist County, had a very nice outdoor, above-ground, pool that the sellers said they'd be happy to include. I touted that feature, in addition to the big lot, outbuildings, RV hookup, huge covered deck, etc., but ultimately I agree to whatever Tamara picks, and she didn't pick that one.

Within minutes of the offer being accepted, my son said "we should get a pool." So I showed him the government requirements for Alachua County. Its own fence. Permanent electric installed by a licensed electrician. County permit. I suppose Gilchrist County might have those same requirements, but I doubt they're enforced. Heck, they might not even be enforced at the new house, seeing as it's located on a fucking cattle trail rather than a street and isn't terribly visible other than to one neighbor. But it's a lot more likely that ...

... a county that charges five times as much in property taxes as the counties around it will have the staff to drive around looking for, and citing, "code violations." They're certainly not using that money to, you know, maintain and improve the roads.

We'd like to buy a 20-foot, maybe even 40-foot, shipping container to use as storage and a mower/motorcycle garage. So while I was pricing that, I decided to see what the county says about it.

You're allowed one storage shed of up to 150 square feet. Anything beyond that, they want a permit, county permission for the exact siting, etc.

Again, it might not be enforced. I have a friend with a 40-foot container on his lot, in a far more visible and densely inhabited location, and I doubt he went and begged for permission to put it there. On the other hand, if I just do it, there might be a knock on the door and a demand that it be hauled away.

My main argument for a house in Gilchrist, Levy, or Putnam County was the tax rate. We'll basically be paying $300 or so per month in rent to the county's politicians, instead of $90 or so per month, above and beyond what we pay for supposed "ownership" of the house.

But it's not just the money, it's what the money gets used for: Sending, or constantly sending, as the Declaration of Independence puts it, "swarms of Officers to harrass our people, and eat out their substance."

The only real defense I'll have against that will be the "No Trespassing -- If You Can Read This, You're Within Range" sign at the end of the driveway.

Anyway, the escrow has been deposited and the required inspections are scheduled for Saturday. I've already started packing things that I can do without for the next month. If, for some reason, the deal falls through, I'll consider whether I can do without that stuff for longer or even forever, and start hauling the boxes to our storage unit or to Goodwill.

Wordle 1572 Hint

 Hint: The act of irritating or exasperating someone.

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First Letter: A

Normally When Amazon Introduces a New Echo Device ...

... they do so during one of their several big sales events, at a substantial discount. For that reason, that's the only time I buy them.

So, it's "Prime Big Deal Days," and they've got a new Echo device, the Echo Dot Max.

It is on sale? No.

Is it inexpensive? No -- it's $99.99.

What's on sale is something they're calling the "Amazon Echo Dot (newest model)," which is from three years ago. And at $34.99 versus the supposed $49.99 list price, that's a "sale" I've seen fairly often.

The Echo Dot Max looks pretty cool (it has a better speaker than previous generations of the Dot, and we use our Echo devices to play music quite a bit), but not $100 cool. While two of the three Dots currently running in the house are fairly recent generations (that 2022 device, and a newer one, the Echo Pop, also advertised as "newest model"), the one in my office is a second (2016) or third (2018) generation that's been going strong for either seven or nine years, since I bought it on sale back then.

Replacing our current Echo devices is very low on my priority list right now, but if they'd had that Max on sale for less than $50, I might have grabbed one specifically for the living room in the new house and moved the Pop to the office to replace the oldest one.

I've also been checking out other "Prime Big Deals Day" sales and I'm not especially impressed.

Maybe Black Friday / Cyber Monday will be better.

I Think I'll Be Waiting On Those New Monitors ...

... that I was going to buy and use as my new setup at the new house.

The house payment (in large part because of property taxes; that should come down a little after the beginning of the year as we're eligible for a $50k "homestead exemption" on the assessed value) will be about $600 per month more than our current rent.

We're not poor, but $600 ain't nothin', so I'm expecting a lot more cooking at home and a lot less fast food. 

The monitors would be about $120; for about $200, I can get a decent chest freezer, which means fewer grocery shopping trips with their attendant impulse purchases, and more buying bulk quantities at e.g. Sam's Club. There's also plenty of space at the new place for a significant vegetable garden, and I already have a tiller, etc.

And I'll be looking into solar panels to reduce or eliminate the electric bill.

We'll get by ... but I don't really need those new monitors yet.

Week 5 NFL Results

Wow ... this was a bad week for me. Apparently for everyone else too. I got four right and ten wrong, but I'm still in the 65.6th percentile among players of ESPN's Pigskin Pick'em game. My picks, labeled green for correct, red for incorrect, and this week with the percentage of people who picked the "most-predicted" team):

• Los Angeles Rams beat San Francisco 49ers (91% picked the Rams)
• Minnesota Vikings beat Cleveland Browns (84% picked the Vikings)
• Indianapolis Colts beat Las Vegas Raiders (94% picked the Colts)
• New York Giants beat New Orleans Saints (79% picked the Giants)
• Dallas Cowboys beat New York Jets (86% picked the Cowboys)
• Philadelphia Eagles beat Denver Broncos (89% picked the Eagles)
• Miami Dolphins beat Carolina Panthers (60% picked the Dolphins)
• Baltimore Ravens beat Houston Texans (73% picked the Ravens)
• Arizona Cardinals beat Tennessee Titans (96% picked the Cardinals)
• Seattle Seahawks beat Tampa Bay Buccaneers* (61% picked the Bucs)
• Detroit Lions beat Cincinnati Bengals (97% picked the Lions)
• Los Angeles Chargers beat Washington Commanders (85% picked the Chargers)
• Buffalo Bills beat New England Patriots (96% picked the Bills)
• Kansas City Chiefs beat Jacksonville Jaguars (81% picked the Chiefs)

As you can see, I was "betting with the field" on every game except the Seahawks/Bucs, so "the field" was wrong, mostly by big percentages, on nine of the 14 games.

It might seem counter-intuitive, but the outcome I'm least disappointed in is the Chiefs-Jaguars game. I went to bed with the Chiefs up 14-0, but Trevor Lawrence and Company apparently mounted a hell of a comeback (I'll check highlight reels, etc.) later. I wish I'd given up the sleep to watch an apparently great entire game.

The Jags are my second favorite NFL team, my "Florida team." They may even be playing just down the road from me at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville for a couple of years while their stadium gets remodeled, in which case I'll try to attend my first NFL game. I'm glad to see them doing well.

Wordle 1571 Hint

 Hint: Stockings usually come in pairs, but today's Wordle is missing one.

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First Letter: N

We Seem To Be At The Penultimate Step

We made an offer.

There was a counter-offer.

We accepted the counter-offer.

That leaves the inspection (and, if it fails, maybe negotiations on who pays to fix the problem or problems, if it's not something so bad that we just say "deal's off").

I don't think it will fail the inspection, so we're this close to having bought a house.

View from the front porch (which has been repaired or replaced since that listing picture was taken):

The property goes out past that large tree that's slightly off-center of the front gate.

It was not the house I wanted from among the available options, but it ain't bad.

Are Expensive Monitors Really That Much Better?

Because I follow the computer tech press, I see lots of reviews of (actually, let's face it, long-form advertisements for) very expensive computer monitors.

To each their own, but for the last few years, my "monitors" have been two 19" Insignia 720p TVs. The first one cost less than $100, and the second, bought later when an old garage-sale monitor went on the fritz, about $50.

Also for many years, my eyesight has been such that I needed glasses for distance, but read books and computer screens just fine with no glasses at all, rather than needing bifocals or separate reading glasses.

It feels like that's starting to change. Sometimes I catch myself leaning forward at my desk to read something on the screen.

So I just went and priced those Insignia TVs, at 24" (not an affiliate link) instead of 19". They're only $59.99 each, so I'd be getting two new monitors for about 1/14th the price of two of these Samsung "active matrix" jobs (not an affiliate link).

Anyone got an opinion on whether the $856 monitor is really 14 times as good as the $60 monitor? Or, absent the specific multiplier, just so much better that they're worth that much more?

I'm very superstitious. I want those monitors (they're also Amazon Fire TVs, so I could use them as TVs if I really wanted to watch something on one screen, but not in a browser window, while working on the other screen), and I know that as soon as I use Bitcoin to get something, Bitcoin's dollar value almost always go up.

But again, I'm very superstitious. My plan is to buy those monitors and keep them in their boxes until we move to the new house (why tear down and set up just to have to tear down and set up again?). I'm afraid to order them this minute for fear of jinxing the offer that we just made on said house. So I'll be waiting until that deal gets done.

Wordle 1570 Hint

Hint: Today's Wordle might make you laugh, and should at least keep you entertained (there are parks dedicated to doing it).

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First Letter: A

One of My Favorite People, on One of My Favorite Shows

Wordle 1569 Hint

Hint: It's not a bird! It's not Superman!

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First Letter: P