Well, That's a Stunning Increase in Popularity ...

... but entirely artificial.

Yesterday, I received an "account suspended" email from the banner exchange I use (I run other people's banner ads, they run mine):

Our monitoring systems have detected a **sudden spike in traffic coming from your website**, generating more than **30,000 banner impressions within a few hours**.

For obvious reasons, banner exchanges don't want people running bots to generate a bunch of impressions on their sites so that they can earn impressions on other sites.

So, I went to look at this blog's stats.

Yesterday, 224,983 visits. This month, 2.2 million visits. All time, 11.9 million visits.

It took this blog a few years to get its first million visits. And a few more to hit two million. I'm pretty sure it passed three million last year.

So yeah, something doesn't look right.

And hey, all of a sudden this site has  now had more visitors, ever, from Seychelles than from any other country. Slightly more than from its previous source champ, the US. With "other" more than those two sources combined.

And all other browsers than Chrome now account for a combined less than 1% of all visits (until recently, Chrome was the biggest, but Firefox, Safari, Edge, etc. had noticeable percentages).

And almost all of the recent visits seem to be related to indecipherable (by me, anyway) keyword searches.

I suppose it could be an attempt at a DDOS attack, but if so the attacker isn't too bright. This blog is hosted on Google's servers and sending massive traffic to my blog won't get that job done.

I'm kind of wondering if it isn't AI bots scraping all my stuff in a race to finally leverage my wisdom to create The Singularity.

Sigh ...

I was so happy with the $10 watch. In fact, just the other day, I mentioned to a friend that I didn't see any need to buy a more expensive watch because after a couple of months this one was keeping good time, to within a few seconds at most, and supposedly has a three-year battery.

Yesterday, I was carrying a box onto our porch when I caught the band on the rail.

The band didn't break, the watch did.

At first I thought that it was just that one of the spring bars had bent or compressed.

But no, the actual lug broke, right at one of the holes where the spring bar attaches.

Now that the Fitbit is working again, I may go back to that. But more likely, I'll spring for a higher-quality analog watch. Although I've used a Fitbit for several years, I think that not having all those stats on my heart rate, blood oxygen, step count, and sleep quality is less stressful than having, and feeling a compulsion to look at, those stats.

I'm not going to spend several hundred dollars to several thousand dollars for a "luxury" or American-made watch. I could go through 50 of the cheap $10 watches -- most of which would likely last far longer than this one before a freak accident -- before having shelled out that much. But I suspect a sub-$100 Timex or Casio will have stronger case casting and significantly longer accurate movement life than the el cheapo.

And hey, the band from the el cheapo is still fine and can be kept as a spare for the next watch as long as I stick with a 20mm-22mm lug watch.

Wordle 1878 Hint

Hint: Shoot Carlos Hathcock style (i.e. from cover/concealment/camouflage).

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First Letter: S

Wordle 1877 Hint

Hint: If your car is a lemon, you might also call it something else based on this dispiriting sound.

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First Letter: C

One of the Weirdnesses of Deadheads ...

... is that every year, around the country, they "meet up at the movies" to watch a Grateful Dead concert from decades ago, in honor of Jerry Garcia's August 1 birthday (but for some reason this one ran a week late).

Naturally, Tamara wants to go every year, and I always have at least as much fun trying to figure out which of the old hippies attending might be the oldest as I do watching the show. One thing we've noticed a lot in recent years is that there are a lot of young Deadheads these days, which is cool.

This year it was their June 17, 1991 performance at Giants Stadium. Good concert, with Bruce Hornsby guesting on piano and accordion. It lacked the one song I really always want to hear in one of their recorded live performances -- "Me and My Uncle" -- but quite enjoyable.

Tamara saw them many times in the '80s and '90s. I wasn't at all into them until I met her, so the closest I came was when I purchased pay-per-view of the final "Fare Thee Well" show featuring the surviving members in 2015, on pay-per-view, as a "yay, you survived cancer" present for Tamara.

I Really Am Feeling Kind of Old

Yesterday I hopped on the Lifan KP Mini 150 and rode about 35 miles, in good weather, to Otter Springs.

There, I met up with reader GregL. We kayaked the mile down from the spring to the Suwanee River, up the river a little, watched for jumping sturgeon (there were several, only got a really good look at one), paddled back up the spring, and did a little bit of snorkeling.

Very nice outing.

The ride back was in rain, sometimes fairly heavy, with intermittent gusty winds. I pulled over a couple of times to wait the winds out. A light two-wheeled vehicle on a 60-mph wet highway does not, to my mind, mix well with lots of wind.

Which is not to say I didn't enjoy the ride. But it was pretty tiring, especially after the ride out, the kayaking, and the snorkleing.

Thirty years ago, I'd have probably arrived home, changed clothes, and headed out for a night of drinking and dancing. But not anymore. Went to be early, and slept deeply.

Applicable(?) Aphorisms #31

"When the student is ready, the teacher will appear." (Zen Buddhism, Proverb)

True, false, good, bad, useful, not so useful, etc.? Discuss.

My thoughts:

Feels a little predestinationish, doesn't it?

But Buddhism in general, and Zen even more so, is kind of tricky when it comes to the usual distinguishing feature of a religion, theism, and the saying might just as easily be treated as epistemological rather than metaphysical.

At the individual level, even pre-Internet, it's always seemed to me that if I became interested in something, it was easy to find people who were also interested in that thing, knew more about it than me, and were happy to share what they knew. And that has included interest in particular schools of religion, philosophy, etc.

So perhaps the Zen proverb is metaphysical and is pointing out an observable, if not particularly explicable, feature of reality.

Wordle 1876 Hint

Hint: An outhouse (or the status of being in on a secret).

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First Letter: P

Wordle 1875 Hint

Hint: Fake it (maybe even until you make it).

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First Letter: F

Wordle 1874 Hint

Hint: My view of today's Wordle is an attitude of complaint.

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First Letter: G

Linux Mile Marker

Per ZDNet:

[A]ccording to StatCounter, a web analytics company that's been tracking end-user operating systems since 1999, desktop Linux has now reached an all-time high of 10.65% in the North American market.

It passed MacOS some (which isn't based on Linux, but is based on other "Unix-like" OSes, Darwin and BSD) some time in the last month or so.

And it's actually 12.72% if ChromeOS (a Linux fork that only loads a web browser) gets lumped in there.

One big driver of that seems to be Windows 10 users finding out their machines can't run Windoze 11 and switching to Linux instead of buying new computers.

I suspect not wanting to buy new computers in general is a factor. With RAM and CPUs getting a lot more expensive, so are the machines they get put into. So many people who would have bought a new computer five years ago aren't doing so in the same "my machine is a little behind the times" situations now. One nice thing about  Linux is that no matter how old and (by today's standards) slow or RAM-anemic your old machine is, there's a distro that will make it at least usable, and likely pep it up to the levels you want.

Wordle 1873 Hint

Hint: A third, shorter, way of saying "propose" or "postulate."

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First Letter: P

Wordle 1872 Hint

Hint: A recurring pattern in art ranging from the visual (e.g. a decorative theme) to the musical (e.g. a note sequence that keeps showing up) to the literary (e.g. a novel with a plot that keeps returning to betrayal as a central idea).

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First Letter: M

Wordle 1871 Hint

Hint: A conversational or written response.

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First Letter: R

My Latest Coffee Preparation Find

I've mostly been drinking English or Scottish breakfast tea instead of coffee lately, but last week I came across this, nearly new, in a thrift store for $2.50, new price $13.19:

It's the Takeya Deluxe Cold Brew Coffee Maker (not an affiliate link).

Since I know the pseudonymous troll will ask, it is "proudly made in the USA, reflecting over 55 years of Japanese design excellence."

Normally I make my cold brew in a French press, but this is a lot easier to clean after use, and you don't risk grounds getting around the plunger screen, because the grounds just go into that center screened canister.

It works very nicely. The screen also seems to be a finer mesh than the French press, and I like using an espresso grind (Cafe Bustelo, which is roasted, ground, and packaged in Florida but sources its beans from countries where coffee actually grows well). Drinking a cup right now, and for those who enjoy a strong cold brew beverage, I highly recommend both that coffee and this device.

If I go back to drinking coffee more often -- I may get tired of the tea -- I'll eventually invest in one of the higher-end consumer-grade espresso machines. My AeroPress is a reasonable substitute, but neither it nor my moka pot quite satisfy the craving for real espresso, which I prefer to regular ol' American-style coffee.

Wordle 1870 Hint

Hint: A more concise form of "punitive."

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First Letter: P

Applicable(?) Aphorisms #30

"God is the light of the heavens and the earth." (Islam, Quran 24:35)

True, false, good, bad, useful, not so useful, etc.? Discuss.

My thoughts:

The thing about God (or gods) is that we can only hypothesize as to their existence and nature. Not theorize -- a theory has to be testable and falsifiable -- just hypothesize.

Or, rather I can only hypothesize. Perhaps there really are prophets and so forth who have firsthand interactions rising to the level of justified certainty ... but I'm not in a position to truly test their claims, either.

Do I have ideas on the matter? Sure. But those ideas are more about saying "if such entities exist, then here's what I think I can plausibly infer from the characteristics of the reality they've created."

And such inferences necessarily suffer from assumptions such as, say, the assumption that an all-powerful being would not be so perverse as to demand that its creations rebel against the rules implied by the created reality on pain of e.g. eternal punishment in an afterlife.

Based on the history of religious claims, I don't think the above assumption is necessarily a safe one. Consider, for example, the arbitrary and capricious members of the ancient Greek pantheon.

I have no interest in attempting to dissuade believers on any particular claim on the existence or nature of deity, and find many such claims interesting for various reasons, and I don't begrudge a Muslim's acceptance of this week's aphorism. But when it comes to actionable material, the claims don't really mean much to me.

Wordle 1869 Hint

Hint: Part water, part ice. Nice as a snack, not so pleasant on a post-winter-storm road.

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First Letter: S

Thanks For Asking! -- 08/01/26

A Warehouse Picker Error in my Favor, or More Evidence for my Identicality Theory?

I ordered the SVOPES 5m/16.4  ft. Canvas Tent Polyester 8 -Person Tent (not an affiliate link) from Lowe's.

I ordered it preference to the VEVOR Canvas Tent 4 Seasons 5 m/16.4 ft Bell Tent Canvas Tent for Camping with Stove Jack Breathable Yurt Tent for up to 8 People Family Camping Outdoor Hunting Party  (not an affiliate link) for two reasons:

1. While the SVOPES tent is normally priced at $449, it was on sale for $318.79 versus the VEVOR tent's $394.90; and
2. Based on the photos and specification language, they're the same tent, made at the same factory, by the same people, of the same materials, with the same specifications, and with the same accessories (as you can see if you follow the links above).

I wasn't expecting the tent to arrive until Monday, but it just got dropped off by FedEx. Here's a picture of the box:

So either some inattentive warehouse worker grabbed the wrong box off the shelf (unlikely -- I suspect that's all verified with bar code scans, etc. these days) or the "market as different brand names" thing doesn't even go so far as "yeah, have boxes printed up with the different brand names on them."

Either way, I got what seems to be the same exact tent for $76.11 less just by looking around before buying.

Wordle 1868 Hint

Hint: A boxer's compensation package (or the boxer's spouse's handbag, which  part of it probably ends up in).

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First Letter: P

The Next Quest -- Upon Which I May Find Myself Buying American

Now that the tent is on the way, I'm already looking for the stuff that will go in it, and that includes a wood stove for heating it.

Looking around, I see that US-made models, as expected, are quite a bit more expensive than Chinese stuff -- $400-600 versus $100-200.

While reviews seem to suggest that there's no substantial safety gap between the two types, I prefer the American models better because they're made of heavier metal and just look cooler. While I do plan to floor the tent with whatever "fake Persian" rugs I happen to come across, I'd kind of like a classy stove.

AND!

This is where the used market comes in. I suspect I can find a used US-made stove on e.g. Facebook or Craigslist at a comparable price to, or even better price than, a brand new Chinese rig. This is north central Florida and I see a lot of hunting and camping gear in those venues. In fact, the Jayco pop-up camper was a "hunting cabin" for many years before I bought it.

I may not limit myself to stoves that are advertised as specifically made for tent use. As long as the flue fits the tent's stove jack, I could (pending safety research) lay down a stone "floor" underneath an antique house stove (I'll probably need to do that even under one of the new ones). I spent many winter hours hovering close to the wood stove in my grandparents' farmhouse, as it was the only heat source in a large two-story building.

I've been thinking of the wood stove as just a better heat source than an electric space heater, but it occurred to me this morning that I can also use a tea kettle or "moka pot" coffee brewer with it, saving me trips inside the main house for beverage replenishment. While I sometimes eat at my desk, I don't store food in the camper office because that might attract critters. But a canister of coffee or tea doesn't sound problematic in that regard.

Wordle 1867 Hint

Hint: Artificial water channel for moving material (e.g. logs).

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First Letter: F

Thoughts on Harry Browne and Comment Trolls

Harry Browne, paraphrased from memory:

It’s easier to get people to believe your sister is a prostitute than to convince them you don’t even have a sister.

A related saying, often incorrectly attributed to Mark Twain (as so many sayings are), and appearing in various forms:

A lie can travel halfway around the world before the truth can get its boots on.

I had a little bit of an epiphany this morning -- because I'm slow, the obvious just hadn't occurred to me before.

The question on my mind was "why do the pseudonymous comment troll or trolls focus so much on making claims about various people that aren't just false, but obviously and risibly false?"

The epiphany: "Because search engines index Disqus comments."

Making the same false claims over and over in different comments on different articles and in different venues populates search engine results with those false claims and boosts their ranks in said results, helping the false claims spread.

So, I will work harder to resist the temptation to approve, and respond to, comments containing claims that aren't just false, but obviously and risibly false.

The Tent Is On The Way, and Will Be Here Before My "Urgent" Medical Referral

I was hoping for a big bump in the price of Bitcoin, but with the Fed about to announce its next rate decision, I decided to go ahead and spend some on the tent I've been talking about:

Including taxes, etc., a little under $350, which is at least $250 less than I'd expected to spend. It should arrive by Monday, but at the moment I'm not expecting to set it up until after my specialist appointment over the whole "retinal hole superior temporal OS with pigment" thing.

Which is on October 22. Apparently "urgent referral" isn't as "urgent" as it sounds. Fortunately the hole is (according to the doctor who found it) small and unlikely to develop into retinal tear territory very quickly.

Why I'm planning to wait on setting up the tent:

1. I'm just fine in my current camper-based "home office." The move is one of convenience/experimentation, not necessity;
2. I'll want to set up the tent during a drier time frame. This is Florida, and this time of year it rains a lot, sometimes at unexpected moments. I don't want a windy thunderstorm just as I've got the thing laid out and am trying to get it up and anchored.
3. I'm hoping to be able to build a deck for the tent to sit on. It's not strictly necessary, but since I'll use it daily I'd rather have wooden floor rather than soft sand under the ground sheet. I do intend to top the ground sheet with mats and rugs so that the floor remains warmer in winter and the ground sheet doesn't get torn by all my high-heels-wearing female visitors (just kidding -- or am I?). The deck will take time to build, whether I spring for nice lumber (very expensive) or track down enough nice, free or cheap, gapless-top pallets to fasten together for at least an 18'x'18' deck (the tent's diameter is 16.4' and I'll want an apron around it and possible a "porch" in front of it).
4. I do want to get it up before the really cold weather (for this area -- I've only see it below 20 degrees Fahrenheit a couple of times, but we do get some freezes) hits, and have a plan developed for installing a wood stove, insulating the tent significantly, or both. I'd prefer easily removable insulation so that in warm weather I can just depend on breezes and electric fans to stay cool rather than needing to run an air conditioner (but I do have a portable air conditioner I can use if necessary).

I picked this particular model for a few reasons:

1. It's made of cotton canvas, except for the ground sheet, which is 400D Oxford. I understand the former lasts longer in outdoor conditions than the latter. When I was in the Marine Corps I sometimes lived under canvas for months at a time. My small civilian camping tents have all been nylon. I like canvas much better, as long as I don't have to carry it around.
2. Unlike typical "bell" tents, the sidewall is hexagonal rather than round, so there are flat wall surfaces, meaning that straight-backed desks, bookcases, and so forth don't waste space when placed against the wall. The side walls also seem to be nearly 5' in height so that a desk/chair set against the wall isn't crowded from above. I prefer the furnishings be along the walls rather than in the center, although if I want to get fancy I might see if it's feasible to VESA mount a TV to the center pole (unlikely -- I do my TV watching in the house, usually with Tamara).
3. It seems to be identical in every way -- probably produced in the same factory and just branded by a different reseller -- to versions that were more expensive even when this one wasn't on sale for $130 off (the sale ends next week, which is why I wanted to get the deal done).

Wordle 1866 Hint

Hint: The bicycle tire varieties include Schrader, Presta, and Dunlop.

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First Letter: V

My Mother Would Have Turned 93 Today ...

... and I miss her.

She died in August of 2020, alone in a hospital after months of being "locked down" in a retirement home, where she caught COVID-19 anyway. The lockdown commenced a week before I had planned on flying up to Missouri from Florida for a visit.

She became a very devout Christian when I was about 10. She was formally a Christian before that, but a lot less intense about it. My brother Mike once said that until he started school, he thought his name was "shitass." I remember that word, although not with the frequency he implied having heard it.

Her lifetime covered a lot of change, both personal and societal. She was born in a log cabin her family lived in because her father worked as a sharecropper for the freed slave who built it. In southern Missouri in 1933, a white man working as a sharecropper for a black man was definitely considered poor.

But her father got together the money to buy a farm of his own. They moved there when she was seven. 

For several years, she and her sisters had to carry water to the house from the creek half a mile away because the well on the farm was no good and it was some time before they could afford to have a new one dug.

They got their first non-tractor motor vehicle when she was 12. Before that, they walked to town or hitched the mules to a wagon -- the same wagon my cousins and I played on decades later. All that was left of it were the wheels, axles, and center board running front to rear.  We'd all hop on and get the wagon rolling down a hill, and the last one who hadn't jumped off "won." Nobody died, but I'm kind of surprised.

They got a telephone (party line) and electricity in the 1950s -- after Mom married Dad in 1951 (they remained married for 66 years until his death).

I'm not sure when they got running water, because there was always a sink in the house when I was alive ... but I was probably 12 years old when all the men in the family came out to tear part of the roof off, lower a bathtub and toilet inside, build them their first indoor bathroom, and replace the roof. That would have been in the late 1970s. Now that I think of it, I suspect the only reason they did away with the outhouse/washtub system was because they were nearing retirement and were preparing the house to be saleable.

So even though we were first "poor," then "lower middle class," I suspect she thought we were doing pretty well. By the time I was 10, there was air conditioning and color TV in the house. Not long after, we even got one of them there new-fangled microwave ovens. There were always two cars in the driveway -- my dad's pickup truck and a family sedan -- although I don't think they ever bought a brand new vehicle off the lot (when they got married, my dad was driving a 1935 Ford coupe with a rumble seat).

I know she worked "outside the home" before I was born, at factories in Kansas City -- Russell Stover, wrapping chocolates, and an envelope factory. When we lived on our small farm, she ran a garden covering at least an acre and raised and canned enough vegetables that I doubt we ever bought canned stuff unless she needed pineapple for an "upside down cake" or something. After we moved into town, she worked at a nursing home until she was badly burned in an accident that should never have happened (I think she got some kind of settlement out of that, but not the "we're rich" kind or anything).

After she recovered, she decided she should do more with my dad and took up golf (he usually played at least 18 holes every weekend before retiring, and several times a week after). She also kept a garden until she and Dad moved into their final home together, a small apartment. And she taught Sunday School.

By the time of that apartment, she and Dad had pretty much all the latest tech except for a computer, which neither of them ever expressed any interest in. Flat-screen TVs, DVD players, cell phones. Matching powered recliners! And only one car in the driveway, a big, IIRC, Chevy Caprice. Dad hated compact cars. So far as  I know he never bought a Cadillac, but I think he may have had a Lincoln Continental for a little while.

A long way from log cabins, outhouses, mule-drawn wagons, and the dry cell radio her dad finally bought after Pearl Harbor.

My "inheritance" when she died was a few hundred dollars and some family pictures/knick-knacks, and I was glad she had taken my advice and used her lifetime of thrift and savings to live well in her "golden years" (and, at the end, pay for the retirement facility) instead of handing it off to her kids. Being raised by her was the real inheritance, and it was substantial.

Wordle 1865 Hint

Hint: Underwater echolocation gear.

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First Letter: S

Some Things Are Just Too Inexpensive to NOT Buy

When my eye exam last Friday revealed a hole in my left retina, I initially decided not to get new glasses just yet. While my prescription has changed slightly, I get by with my current glasses, and there's at least some chance the surgery I expect will change my prescription yet again.*

On the other hand, I have no idea how long it will be before I get to actually see a specialist and schedule whatever procedure is recommended (or chosen).

So I decided to check out prices at my two preferred online sellers of frames and lenses, EyeBuyDirect and Zeelool. Those are referral links and if you use them you'll get some kind of discount and I will receive points toward my future orders. I've bought multiple pairs of glasses from each company and have never had any complaints with the quality.

Note to "Buy American!" trolls: About 90% of the eyeglass frames sold in the US are made in China, and another 5% are made in other non-US countries. As best I can tell, both EyeBuyDirect and Zeelool use Chinese frames. It's also my impression (based on tracking shipments) that Zeelool grinds the lenses in, and ships the glasses directly from, China, while EyeBuyDirect seems to do the lenses in, and ship from, the US.

Once I saw the price of a pair I wanted at EyeBuyDirect, I decided it was worth going ahead with a new pair. Total cost, including frames, prescription lenses, sales taxes, and shipping: $21.90. Both companies almost always have some frames in the $10 to $15 range, with basic prescription lenses included. You'll pay more if you want higher-grade lenses, tints, etc., but I think the most anyone in my household has paid for glasses from either place is about $40. I happen to like round glasses, so I went with a frame not coincidentally called "Potter."

* According to the web, there are three types of procedures for repairing a retinal hole. For a small hole (which mine seems to be), they'll use a laser or cryogenic instrument to tighten up the tissue around the hole so that it shuts. For a larger hole, the procedure is called a vitrectomy. It involves putting a gas bubble around the hole, after which the patient is required, among other life/work interferences, to remain face down, 24/7, for about two weeks. I know someone who had to have it done twice because the first time didn't work. If I'm told I require a vitrectomy, I will push for a fourth type of procedure: Just taking the eye out, either immediately or when/if the hole becomes a retinal tear. I'm pushing 60 and have no desire to give up a month of my life just to save half of my poor vision.

Wordle 1864 Hint

Hint: Pretender.

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First Letter: P

Grain of Salt, But ...

According to The Telegraph (and other sources):

Donald Trump has paused plans to escalate the war on Iran after being warned that the US is running low on missiles.

For the first time in nearly two weeks, the US president called off strikes on the Islamic Republic over the weekend and has set aside plans to return to major combat operations.

I normally take claims of munitions shortages with a huge grain of salt.

In the 1950s, a supposed "bomber gap" versus the Soviet Union was used to justify more US military spending.

In the 1960, the "bomber gap" became a "missile gap" in general and an "anti-ballistic missile gap" in particular.

For the last four years, various parties have claimed the US is in the grip of "severe munitions shortages" as a reason to stop sending stuff to Ukraine ... even as the US military continually promoted various iterations of "the largest live-fire exercise EVAH!" in, among other places, the Pacific Rim region.

So, at a longer-term strategic level, I consider such "shortage" claims as mostly Baghdad Bob stuff.

But this is seems to be a shorter-term claim and that makes it a little more believable. "Yeah, we need to get more interceptors over there before we give the Iranians an excuse to come at us."

Logistics -- the ability to get the stuff where you need it to be, when you need it to be there -- is what wins or loses wars.

And one of the few military advantages the Iranian regime has in this particular war is that it doesn't have to to spend three weeks shipping ordnance 10,000 miles by sea to put it where it's needed.

On the other hand, ever since World War 2 the US regime has been excellent at delivering the goods across oceans quickly. There are always problems (during Desert Storm, my unit was on short rations for a couple of weeks because they had to prioritize the delivery of bullets over delivering beans in case things blew up suddenly), but those problems get solved (by the time the war ended we were getting reasonably good hot chow twice a day, MREs one meal a day, and had all kinds of extra stuff, from pallets of canned peanut butter to cases of "sous vide" vacuum-sealed dinners -- I lost about 20 pounds early but gained 10 pounds back before coming home).

Of course, this could be a ruse ("let's try to bait them into attacking and then surprise them"), but if it's the truth it's not likely catastrophic, or even a sign of some avoidable failure.

Wordle 1863 Hint

Hint: The larval form of wine.

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First Letter: G

OK, I Made The Effort ...

... to find an American watch (pursuant to the "buy American!" whining in comments).

So far as I can tell, there are precisely two companies which make their watches entirely in America.

RGM Watch Company makes everything right here in the US. I like their Model 150 (not an affiliate link). Price: $3,450.

Vortic Watches uses antique American-made pocket watch movements and makes the other parts right here in the US. I like their Springfield 178 (not an affiliate link). Price: $4,900.

The cheapest of the two would set me back 100 times as much money as a perfectly good Casio FT500WC (not an affiliate link). In fact, it would cost me less than the Casio plus the 2001 Harley-Davidson Sportster 883 (made in America) I'm looking at in another browser tab right now.

I don't know if I'll buy the Harley (probably not), but I'm still pretty sure I'll go with the Casio.

Applicable(?) Aphorisms #29

"He who has never learned to obey cannot command." (Stoicism, Seneca, On Mercy)

True, false, good, bad, useful, not so useful, etc.? Discuss.

My thoughts:

I suspect this one has been misunderstood and misused a lot since Seneca wrote it to Nero. As a young worker, you may have heard it from a boss who wanted his or her instructions obeyed, not questioned.

Seneca, however, wasn't talking about obedience to a person, he was talking about obedience to a principle -- logos, aka reason/logic as the distinguishing factor separating a "good" ruler from a tyrant.

Seneca long preceded and contradicted Machiavelli as a political advisor, treating mercy to opponents as the approach most likely to keep an emperor in the good graces of the public and preserve the perceived legitimacy of the ruler. In contrast, Machiavelli recommended a velvet glove / iron fist approach (bread/circuses, but paired with swift and severe punishment for dissent/opposition).

As someone concerned with dispelling, rather than preserving, the perceived legitimacy of the state, I prefer rulers who let their freak flags fly so that they're more easily seen as the sociopaths they are. Edict backed by the threat of force can never accord for very long with logos -- the second the results diverge from the ruler's desires, force takes the wheel.

But in a third sense beyond the political and bad-managerial, the aphorism has value. Applying logic and reason rather than mere whim gets better results. We didn't learn to fly by ignoring or defying gravity, we learned to fly by gaining some understanding of gravity and other constraints and obeying them.

Wordle 1862 Hint

Hint: Pacific island greeting.

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First Letter: A

Well, It's Always Something ...

Got my regular eye exam this morning.

I've got a small hole in my left retina.

Hopefully small enough for the laser or freeze treatment rather than a vitrectomy, which I'm told by people who've had it is a real bother. Hopefully I'll have a referral appointment scheduled by Monday for ASAP.

It Pays (or at Least Saves) to Carefully Comparison Shop

I've seen various prices on the tent I've pretty much settled on, if I decide to replace the camper with a tent. 

So far, the range has run from $600ish at the high end to $300ish at the low end.

Part of the variation is due to different stores having different prices, and different sale prices.

But another part of the variation is that these days, exactly the same product -- usually from China because that's where inexpensive stuff comes from -- gets sold under various brand names.

This morning, I was looking at two tents from the same store. One was prices at $394, the other at $318 (both on sale at the moment through early August) -- either one would be minus 10% because I get a discount at that store.

The entire difference, based on my examination of listed specifications and a very careful examination of the photos, was the brand name. Not only were the numbers in the specs identical, the seller's language in the descriptions was identical or nearly so (example: "With a generous diameter of 5 m (16.4 ft), this canvas bell tent provides ample space for you and your family to enjoy the great outdoors;It comfortably fits up to eight people, offering plenty of room to relax and unwind amidst nature." Word for word.

Don't just see something and buy it. Shop around.

Wordle 1861 Hint

Hint: Sealer/filler (or, in its silly variety, a fun toy).

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First Letter: P

Wordle 1860 Hint

Hint: One doesn't really solve today's Wordle so much as one just circles around it repeatedly.

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First Letter: O

Wordle 1859 Hint

Hint: Cargo truck (British descriptor).

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First Letter: L

Wordle 1858 Hint

Hint: A con artist's secret but vocal assistant.

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First Letter: S

Wordle 1857 Hint

Hint: Van Halen's is down, Dio's is holy.

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First Letter: D

Wordle 1856 Hint

Hint: The process of -- and  the device used for -- producing butter.

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First Letter: C

Wordle 1855 Hint

Hint: Restaurant alternative to table or counter.

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First Letter: B

Applicable(?) Aphorisms #28

"The Creator dwells among the lowly." (Sikhism, Guru Granth Sahib 10)

True, false, good, bad, useful, not so useful, etc.? Discuss.

My thoughts:

This particular bromide seems common to most religions.

The most frequent interpretation of it is of the "don't think badly of the poor, they're people just like the rich" variety, which seems reasonable in any religion that, for example, holds humankind as created in God's image and therefore of inherent dignity and value.

And, to be fair, Sikhism originated in opposition to the "caste" system that prevailed in Hinduism (that system as it developed "on the ground" is not obviously implied by the Rigveda's division of Purusha's body parts into varnas, by the way), so the sentiment might well be genuine.

That said, it's easy to see how the idea can be abused by institutional religion. It serves the dual purposes of telling the "lowly" to just be content with their lot in life and just accept whatever social system their religious figures decree, and those better off to hand over their wealth to those same religious figures (an interesting variant is the Christian "prosperity gospel" movement of recent decades, which encourages the "lowly" to hand over their money in hope of gaining God's favor and getting more money back in the bargain).

I prefer that more frequent interpretation. 

Sigh of Hopeful Motorcycle Relief

A couple of weeks ago, my son dropped the Italica Bulldog 150 while riding it around the yard (he was considering a scooter or motorcycle; he'd ridden the former before but wanted to see how a taller bike felt; now he never wants to be on two motorized wheels again).

No obvious major damage, just a broken mirror and plastic headlight fairing.

Then the other day I had gone out on the bike and it died just as I got back home. Out of gas.

Had I both 1) forgotten the previous fill-up mileage and 2) failed to notice the gas gauge blink that reminds me I need to fill up within the next 20 miles or so?

Or was there a fuel leak somewhere, caused by the wreck?

The other day I put exactly half a gallon of gas in it. Started right up. Rode it to the gas station and topped it off, rode back home with no problem and no apparent large fuel level fall-off.

Checked the mileage (using Fuelly, which lets me record partial fill-ups, etc. and still keep track of that stuff). 60.8 miles per gallon. That's low. Not just below the bike's lifetime average (66.2 mpg), but below what I might have expected since it had recently mostly been ridden in low speed limit areas where I usually expect more like 70 mpg.

Tentative conclusion: When the bike went down, some gas splashed out of the cap vent. I see that as of the "wreck," it did have about 50 miles since the last fill-up. I usually fill up at 60 miles or so, even though I should be able to get 80+. So it would have only taken losing a few ounces to produce that effect.

That conclusion is, however, tentative. My next few trips out on that bike will either be within a couple of miles of home (so I can push the bike back home), or when I know a family member is available to bring me gas and/or carry the bike home if I'm wrong.

Wordle 1854 Hint

Hint: This type of pad's thickness may vary, but it's usually yellow and always 8.5" wide by 14" tall.

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First Letter: L

Why Second Opinions Are Worthwhile

A few weeks ago, we noticed that our central air unit wasn't keeping up very well and that there was visible ice on parts of its internals.

Tamara chose a local HVAC company to send someone out (I don't know if she consulted reviews, or just threw a dart at a board with company names on it, or what -- she just said she'd do it, and did it).

The guy was here for about ten minutes before he informed us that:

• The unit was nearly out of coolant;
• The leak seemed to be at the evaporator, which can't just be replaced as a stand-alone job, and therefore
• We'd need a new AC unit, guesstimated costs $6k to $9k.

Not the kind of thing you like to hear, of course.

But a friend of ours recommended a different HVAC guy, because for an expenditure that size it's worth paying a little extra to make sure you're not getting screwed.

The second guy came out. Spent more than half an hour, the last ten minutes of which was crawling under the house to look at the duct work. His conclusion:

• The unit was in fine shape.
• It was full of coolant and there was no leak.
• The coil was freezing up because the duct work was old, partially collapsed in two places, with several holes, so a lot of the cold air was going under, rather than in, the house, leading the unit to run a lot more than it should, leading to the coil freeze. And therefore
• We needed new duct work, guesstimated cost of $2.5k.

And it ended up being $1.7k. He made it clear as of the guesstimate that that was the high end.

And since we hired him to do the work, there was no fee for the initial service call.

Now the house is cool and the unit isn't running all the time.

And we saved at least $4.3k by not just trusting the first guy's claims and forking over.

Not the first time that kind of thing has happened. Back In St. Louis, a chain shop did our annual car inspection and said we needed $800 worth of repairs to pass. A second mechanic recommended by a friend said that was BS. The only thing we needed was a new headlight (the old one's cover had deteriorated with time). $40 parts and labor.

Get the second opinion!

Wordle 1853 Hint

Hint: A mesa's tall, skinny relative.

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First Letter: B

Other Options for "The Next Home Office"

When I bought the Jayco 806SD pop-up camper for use as a home office, I committed to giving it six months before deciding whether it worked for me or whether I needed something different.

It's been eight months. It does work for me. I don't need anything different, but I'm still thinking about something different.

The Jayco is large enough. It accommodates my desktop computing equipment and doesn't leaving me feel cramped or confined. I've converted one "pop-out" into a storage area and left the other as what it's meant for, a bed.

I'm mostly reasonably climate-comfortable, although it is drafty and therefore harder to cool or heat than I'd like, but not in a deal-killing way. I happen to be fond of warm weather, so even when it's in the 90s I generally use a fan in preference to air conditioning. When it's cool out, I function quite well in low-to-mid-60s office temperatures. Those are good reasons for my office to be outside the main house, since everyone else seems to want to live in Antarctica when it's hot out and in a desert oasis when it's cold out. I've inserted insulation foam board in the side walls -- shiny side out when the weather is warm, shiny side in when it's cold. In summer, I have two fans keeping an air current running through the trailer. In winter, I button up and run a space heater. It wall works out.

It does, however, leak. The canvas "pop-outs" are 36 years old, full of holes, and would cost twice as much to replace as the camper itself, and I'm now on the second set of tarps to address that. Looks like I'll go through two sets of cheap tarps a year unless I want to spend big money on really good ones. If I come across an old military GP tent for sale cheap, I may buy that and use it as a single tarp to cover the whole camper.

And I could just dispense with the "pop-outs" entirely and frame in the main cabin, basically making a tiny (very tiny -- about 50 square feet) house on wheels out of the thing. That would leave only the roof to need covering (roof sealant hasn't been enough).

OR!

I could do something else.

I've been keeping an eye on listings of "real" -- non-"pop-out" -- campers for sale. This seeems to be a high-price time of year, but I'm confident that if I wait until November (which I will likely do in any case -- it's a drier time of year better suited to setting up the new thing and moving into it from the old thing) I'll see some reasonable options in the $1500 range.

As previously mentioned, I've been considering a geodesic dome. A frame for one that would be larger than the current space would only run about $500, including soft plastic covering which I'd want to augment or replace with something more insulating and less transparent. Call it $1k tops ... except that I'd want to build a wooden deck/floor to site it on, and when I checked lumber prices the other day I determined that would at at least another $1k.

Other options I'm looking into include yurts/bell tents and teepee type tents. I can also get those in the $500-$800 range for very large ones (~200 square feet). I'd lean toward the yurt configuration to optimize space (straight vertical side walls a few feet up instead of sloping from the ground up, so my desk could go against a wall). They generally include thick ground cloths, so instead of building a deck I'd just level and de-grass/de-stone the ground and use mats and rugs on the interior. I might get one with a stove jack and then heat in winter with wood instead of using an electric space heater. I've got this one in mind ($659, canvas, "all-weather," 16.9 ft diameter, so about 225 square feet, about 11 feet tall at the center, not an affiliate link):

A tent setup would have advantages and disadvantages. I doubt it would be quite as water-resistant, or stand up to high winds as well, as a geodesic dome. On the other hand, it would be much easier to take down when, for example, I knew a hurricane was coming my way. And I don't think it would be any worse than the Jayco climate-wise. In something like the yurt above would be better for getting a breeze through in the summer, and easily heated with a small wood stove in the winter (we've got plenty of non-pine fallen branches, etc., around the yard and neighborhood to provide the firewood) if I didn't want to run a space heater next to my desk.

If I didn't live in a county with a government that's nosy about people's property, wants "permits" and "inspections" for "permanent structures," and apparently uses drones and satellite photography to find "violators," I'd just go ahead and spend $5-10k turning a shipping container into a real "tiny house" office complete with plumbing, window air conditioner, etc. But because I'm not interested in having the gummint "approve" my stuff, I need something that either has wheels on it or is plausibly "temporary" -- no concrete footings, no wood-framed exterior walls, etc.

I'm happy enough with the Jayco to not feel any pressure about upgrading. But I may, if for no other reason than that we want to get some chickens next spring and the Jayco could be easily re-purposed as a coop.

Wordle 1852 Hint

Hint: Expression of contemptuous dismissal (and a nickname for William Jennings Bryan).

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First Letter: P

Wordle 1851 Hint

Hint: When grilling out, this food gets (or at least should get) top billing.

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First Letter: S

Just Watching, After Ten Days or So

The experiment in retreating from "digital fitness tracker / smart watch" to "plain old analog watch" is going well so far.

I think I'm still getting my usual number of steps in per day, and I'm less stressed by a thing on my wrist buzzing every time I get a phone call or text message, telling me about the variations in my heart rate, analyzing my sleep, etc.

If there's a down side, I suppose it's that the newfangled stuff COULD clue me in early to stuff with health implications, but to be honest its main function on that has been to warn me of possible heart arrythmia events that my doctor can't find any trace of and that I suspect are just caused by me startling at night or something. If the watch tracked blood pressure and blood glucose, it might be more useful on that, but I just don't find what it does useful anymore because I don't see sudden changes (over time, my resting heart rate has decreased and my sleep has improved, but both of those plateaued some time ago).

I'm not in any big hurry to get a better watch ... but I'd like to get a better watch band ... and based on what I'm seeing in the watch market, the band I would want would cost about 2/3 of what a decent watch with a band that looks like what I'd want.

When I was growing up, Casio was known for 1) cheap digital watches and 2) cheap music keyboards. Apparently they're all grown up now and make pretty good analog watches, like this one (not an affiliate link), for about a third of what I thought I'd pay for something like it:

It gets 4.5 stars on more than 13,000 user ratings on Amazon. It's not my perfect watch (I don't need the name on the frame, would probably rather have it just glow in the dark than use a light-up button, and am of two minds about a date window), but it looks fairly nice, allegedly keeps good time, and is reasonably rugged, and I like a hook-and-loop cloth band.

I may grab it the next time I have extra Amazon gift card credit on hand, or cite it when asked what I want for my birthday or Christmas, or find something else as good for the price.  But I'm not in a big hurry, especially if the current El Cheapo watch continues to keep good time and the band maybe softens up with age/washing.

Wordle 1850 Hint

Hint: Dark beer.

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First Letter: S

Wordle 1849 Hint

Hint: Often preceded by "clickety."

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First Letter: C

Applicable(?) Aphorisms #27

"Do not look down on any teaching." (Buddhism, Dhammapada 4:6)

True, false, good, bad, useful, not so useful, etc.? Discuss.

My thoughts:

I disagree completely. If a teaching is demonstrably false or valueless, it should be looked down on.

Of course, in the realm of religion, it's hard to get to "demonstrably false" because claims as to the existence of a deity or deities are intrinsically faith-based. They can't be proven or disproven.

In areas such as ethics or economics, teachings can be compared to desired outcomes and observed reality.

For example, the labor theory of value isn't just demonstrably bullshit, it's the kind of bullshit that anyone who has two neurons to rub together and try to light up a synapse with should be embarrassed to advocate for. I look down on it because it's unworthy of respect.

Wordle 1848 Hint

Hint: It's a bird! It's a pla ... nah, not a plane, looks bird-like.

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First Letter: A

Why I Continue to Resist Four Wheels

It's not that I don't think about giving up the motorcycle for a car or truck. I do, every once in a while. But then I come up against the difference:

• You can still buy a motorcycle, new or used, affordably, that runs on a carburetor instead of fuel injection, rocks analog gauges (including an actual float rather than an electronic sensor in the gas tank) and involves little or no computer stuff. In fact, they're cheaper than the ones with all the "ride mode" nonsense, touch screen, etc.
• In order to get the car or truck I want, I'll have to find a 1970 to 1980 vehicle in decent shape mechanically and body-wise. And those seem to be very, very expensive.

I am not a skilled mechanic, but I'm pretty sure I could easily get back on top of things -- do my own oil changes, my own tune-ups, replace my own brake pads, replace an alternator or starter, etc. -- and not have to go to the shop for every little thing.

These days, it's a bunch of computer diagnostics, and if you have to replace something it seems like often the car's computer has to be flashed or trained to accept the new part, etc. You can't even rely on a trouble light, because it may just be a bad sensor rather than whatever the sensor is supposedly measuring.

But if anyone knows of a 1974 Oldsmobile Delta 88 for sale, in good condition, at a reasonable price, let me know. Best. Car. Ever. Other than the gas mileage, of course (12 mpg on the highway, 8 mpg in town).

Good Kindle Book Deal

Fractions: The First Half of The Fall Revolution (not an affiliate link) by Ken Macleod, is on sale in ebook format at Amazon for $2.99.

It comprises two novels, The Star Fraction and The Stone Canal, which sell separately for $11.99 and $14.99 respectively.

The second half (Divisions, comprising The Cassini Division and The Sky Road) isn't on sale, but once you've read The Star Fraction you're going to want to read them all. I've got all of them in hard copy, but having a Kindle version allows me to have myself read to sleep to them by Alexa.

The novels are full of "anarcho-capitalists," commies, and everything in between and far afield from both. The first novel, Macleod says, is haunted by "the uncomfortable question":  "What if capitalism is unstable and socialism is impossible?" He even discusses Ludwig von Mises's "calculation problem" in the introduction.

More than those interesting points, though, what's important is that Macleod always spins an absorbing and rewarding story. I can't recommend the Fall Revolution cycle highly enough (and the books can be read in any order, or alone -- I came across The Cassini Division before any of the others, and didn't need knowledge of the other three to make it worthwhile).

Wordle 1847 Hint

Hint: When a man had a plan in Panama ...

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First Letter: C

Unlikely Option, But Option

I've seen pictures of this bike online before --  usually marketed as the Venom or Belmonte Sportster 250, but underneath it's the Chinese Dongfang DF250RTG -- and didn't like the way it looked in photos. But yesterday I happened to park next to one:

It looks a LOT nicer in person than in the ads. It's fairly inexpensive ($2k to $2.5k new, depending on where you find it, and I occasionally see them barely used and quite a bit cheaper on e.g. Facebook Marketplace).

Down sides:

• I've been planning for my next bike to be a 500-750cc engine. This is a 250cc.
• I prefer alloy wheels to spoked wheels.
• I'd probably want to replace the handlebars for less required forward leaning.

Up sides:

• Like I said, inexpensive.
• I've seen top speed, stock, listed as 65-70 in some places and 70-75 in others, neither of which is terrible, and with a performance exhaust, 28mm carb, and performance air I would expect it to manage 80+.
• It's got a plain round can headlight and analog gauges, which I prefer to the weird-shaped headlights and all-electronic stuff on most newer bikes.
• It's an air-cooled engine, which I prefer (one less fluid to leak), and some of the engines are made by Lifan (others are made by Zongshen, which I don't trust as much, but they are all clones of a very reliable Honda engine).

For the moment, I'm still planning on saving up for a reasonably priced, pre-2025 Royal Enfield Interceptor 650 (before they started doing all the digital crap). But this is one of the 250cc bikes I'm adding to my "that would work" list. I'd want to find it lightly used -- "bought this bike to see if I liked motorcycling, it took me 100 miles to decide I didn't" -- and at $1k or under.

I saw what looked like a REALLY good deal on a well-maintained/fixed-up 2006 Buell Blast today, and might have jumped on it, but I've learned since my last flirtation with that idea that parts range from "impossible to find" to "very expensive if you find them." From what I've seen, aftermarket parts for these cheap Chinese bikes are plentiful and inexpensive. They sell a LOT of them, just under various private label brand names, so it sometimes takes a little research to make sure you've got the right thing, but the stuff is out there (a lot of the engine parts, you can find listed as for that Honda engine mentioned above).