Four Hypotheticals

Hypothetical Number One: Donald Trump wins the election.

Hypothetical Number Two: Joe Biden, who is a lame duck with nothing better to do, and who can act with impunity/immunity, and without an immediate successor whose success he needs to worry about, for more than two months, decides to do some light reading.

Hypothetical Number Three: Biden comes across something interesting, and calls Anthony Blinken.

Hypothetical Number Four: Anthony Blinken calls Israel Katz and says "hey, Joe was browsing the Foreign Assistance Act of 1961, and came across Section 620M. It seems that 'no assistance shall be furnished under this Act or the Arms Export Control Act to any unit of the security forces of a foreign country if the Secretary of State has credible information that such unit has committed a gross violation of human rights.' So, you know, he called me, and I couldn't lie to him. You're cut off. No more weapons ... oh, I'm required by that same law to inform you, which I have now done, and to assist you in taking measures to bring the responsible members of the security forces to justice. So yeah, the first measure would be getting all of your troops out of Lebanon, Gaza, the West Bank, and Jerusalem. Once that's done, let's touch base on how to proceed with arrests, trials, etc. so maybe you can start getting your welfare checks again. Have a nice day!"

The Israel lobby has mostly abandoned the Democrats now anyway, so a clean break and four years to talk that up -- even while Trump undoes it -- seems like smart politics to me.

In Which I Briefly Put On My Stand-Up Comedy Hat

As long-time readers of this blog may remember, I made a brief foray into the world of stand-up comedy. 

It wasn't much, really -- a couple of open mic sets, IIRC one of them a two-minute and the second one a five-minute. Those two times weren't accidental. The first time you came to this particular open mic, you got two minutes. And if you got laughs, well, then, the next week the person running the thing would give you five minutes if you wanted.

I got laughs both times. I started working on a "tight ten" minute routine, which is the next step and maybe one you get to do as one of the minor comedians in a "real" show instead of at an open mic ... and then the pandemic hit, everything just shut down, and at some point I lost interest. My main reason for messing with it in the first place was that I thought it might reduce my fear of public speaking. I think it did.

Anyway, that's all by way of establishing my (exceedingly minimal) credentials as an authority on whether or not a joke works. Whether it's good. Whether it's something the person who came up with should expect to get laughs out of. So:

There are a number of different "formulas" for writing jokes.

My own favorite such formula is to start talking about something people recognize, understand, are familiar with, or can identify with, then take a sudden, unexpected turn on that subject. You lull them, then you shock them. It may take five seconds or five minutes to move from the wholly relatable premise to the "wow, that was completely unexpected" turn, but that's the formula.

Here's a not really very good joke I posted to this very blog, one of my early attempts, way back in 2014 (years before I braved a microphone and a live audience). It uses that formula.

Wholly Relatable Premise: I tried to break up with my girlfriend. Told her we shouldn't date any more. Told her adieu.

Wow, That Was Completely Unexpected Turn: So now she thinks we're married.

Here's another one that I posted to Facebook in May of 2020. Similar formula, but it has a little kick after the turn. This one  got me contacted by another comedian I'd done those two open mics with. He was trying to set up his own open mic at a different bar, and he wanted me to show up because he liked it. But you know how long the pandemic, and the accompanying public event restrictions, dragged on. And it happens to be about those restrictions.

Wholly Relatable Premise: I was at the store today and a woman walked up to me and informed me that having my nose hanging outside my mask is like having my penis hanging outside my pants. I looked at her for a minute, waiting for her to go on, and she looked at me for a minute waiting for me to respond. Finally, she said "do you understand what I'm saying?"

Wow, That Was Completely Unexpected Turn: I said "I think you're saying that you want to see my penis, but I'm not really sure."

Little Post-Turn kick: Then she ran away.

Maybe you laughed when you read those jokes. Maybe you didn't. I personally think they're a little better delivered vocally. When it comes to influences, I tend to lean toward e.g. Steven Wright or Mitch Hedberg. So imagine them delivered pretty much deadpan.

Warming up for Donald Trump at Madison Square Garden, comedian Tony Hinchcliffe used the same formula, in short form. It's quick punch, not rope-a-dope.

Wholly Relatable Premise: There’s a lot going on. I don’t know if you know this but there’s literally a floating island of garbage in the middle of the ocean right now.

Wow, That Was Completely Unexpected Turn: I think it’s called Puerto Rico.

My "professional" opinion:

He nailed it.

In any venue other than a presidential campaign rally -- particularly in the kind of venues he usually performs at, where he's known for taking a "roast" approach to everyone, everything, and everywhere --  that joke would have killed.

But when a joke is told at a presidential campaign rally, any person or group who feels insulted (and anyone who wants to play to that person or group) will treat it as a political statement on the part of the campaign rather than as "just" a joke by a comedian.

I'm not saying that's good or bad, just noticing that that's how things are. I'm not a Trump supporter, or a Harris supporter, nor do I have anything against Puerto Rico (in fact, it's probably in my top ten "places I'd like to visit, and could visit without getting a passport" list).

If all I knew of Hinchcliffe's ouvre was that joke -- and guess what, all I know of Hinchcliffe's ouvre is that joke! -- he would go (and has gone) on my list of "comedians I'd like to see live."

Wordle 1230 Hint

Hint: Think Tales, Science, or Al. 

Not Enough? Get the first letter of today's Wordle after the ads below.

New to Wordle? You can play it at the New York Times, and here are some thoughts on how I go about solving each day's puzzle.

First Letter: W

NFL Week 9 Picks

NFL Week 9 starts Thursday (tomorrow) night with the Houston Texans playing the New York Jets. Here are my picks, as entered in ESPN's "Pigskin Pick'em" game. "Upset" picks -- that is, picks where I'm in the minority as to who will win -- have asterisks next to them.

• Houston Texans beat New York Jets
• Atlanta Falcons beat Dallas Cowboys
• Buffalo Bills beat Miami Dolphins
• Cincinnati Bengals beat Las Vegas Raiders
• Cleveland Browns beat Los Angeles Chargers*
• Tennesse Titans beat New England Patriots*
• Washington Commanders beat New York Giants
• Carolina Panthers beat New Orleans Saints*
• Baltimore Ravens beat Denver Broncos
• Chicago Bears beat Arizona Cardinals
• Philadelphia Eagles beata Jacksonville Jaguars
• Detroit Lions beat Green Bay Packers
• Seattle Seahawks beat Los Angeles Rams*
• Minnesota Vikings beat Indianapolis Colts
• Kansas City Chiefs beat Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This weekend will mark the halfway point of the 18-week season. So far I've been a little bit lazy about e.g. checking team injury reports and things like that, and maybe changing picks, but on the back end of the season I'll probably keep my ear closer to the ground.

Any changes to my picks will be made both at the ESPN picking game site and here, clearly marked, in the blog post. They'll be made before kickoff of the game in question, of course.

Wordle 1229 Hint

Hint: An aspiring painter's first and most reliable supporter usually has three legs. 

Not Enough? Get the first letter of today's Wordle after the ads below.

New to Wordle? You can play it at the New York Times, and here are some thoughts on how I go about solving each day's puzzle.

First Letter: E

NFL Week 8 Results

My Week 8 picks, green for correct ones, red for incorrect ones:

• Minnesota Vikings beat Los Angeles Rams
• Baltimore Ravens beat Cleveland Browns
• Detroit Lions beat Tennessee Titans
• Miami Dolphins beat Arizona Cardinals*
• New York Jets beat New England Patriots
• Atlanta Falcons beat Tampa Bay Buccaneers*
• Jacksonville Jaguars beat Green Bay Packers*
• Houston Texans beat Indianapolis Colts
• Philadelphia Eagles beat Cincinnati Bengals
• Buffalo Bills beat Seattle Seahawks
• Washington Commanders beat Chicago Bears
• Denver Broncos beat Carolina Panthers
• Kansas City Chiefs beat Las Vegas Raiders
• San Francisco 49ers beat Dallas Cowboys
• Pittsburgh Steelers beat New York Giants

An additional pick which for some reason did not appear in my initial pick post, but does appear where it counts, in my pick list at ESPN's "Pigskin Pick'em" game:

• Los Angeles Chargers beat New Orleans Saints

Which adds up to 11 right, five wrong for the week. For the season, I am at 79 right, 44 wrong in the 90.9th percentile in ESPN's "Pigskin Pick'em" game.

Wordle 1228 Hint

Hint: I want a girl who's fast, thorough, and sharp as a tack ... and who wears another term for today's Wordle above her short skirt. 

Not Enough? Get the first letter of today's Wordle after the ads below.

New to Wordle? You can play it at the New York Times, and here are some thoughts on how I go about solving each day's puzzle.

First Letter: T

How Enthusiastic Are People About Politics, Really?

Over the weekend, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris both held big campaign rallies (Trump's, as you may have heard, was at Madison Square Garden).

The Garden was "sold out" (even though the tickets were free). It has a capacity of about 20,000.

Harris's rally claimed attendance of about 30,000.

The two of them combined, even with free tickets, didn't draw as many fans as the Kansas City Chiefs / Las Vegas Raiders (about 62,000) or Taylor Swift (about 65,000).

Between Harris and Trump, one of them will spend four years in the White House, becoming very difficult to see live, while the other will likely draw small crowds on the rubber chicken speaking circuit for the rest of his or her life. People who wanted to see them knew the best time to see them was now. About 50,000, total, showed up for their free shows.

The Chiefs and Raiders play each other twice a year, every year.

Taylor Swift has done six major concert tours and seems likely to do more in the future.

And 130,000 people paid big money to see them instead of Trump or Harris.

I think that's a good thing in terms of keeping life in perspective.

Hell, I'm a political junkie and even I am tired of those idiotic political ads during football games on TV.

I'm Considering An Auction or Dueling Fundraiser, But Want Opinions First

There's a phenomenon that seems to come in two parts pretty much every time, and which has transpired perhaps once a month for the last two years or so.

Part 1: Someone I haven't met before, or whom I haven't seen in a long time, compliments me on my mustache.

Part 2: Someone else whom I've known since before I've grown the mustache, but who hasn't seen it recently (or maybe at all), sees it and says I should get rid of it, that it "just doesn't look like" me.

I'm thinking about letting people vote with their dollars on whether I keep it or shave it off.

Two ways I could do that:

1. Set up an auction -- whoever bids the most gets to tell me whether the mustache comes off, or whether I keep it for some minimum time post-auction (with exceptions for medical emergencies, i.e. facial surgery or whatever); or
2. Just hold dueling fundraisers, with me doing the will of the team/side that donates the most (with the same exception for shaving it if medically required for some reason, even if the fundraising result is "keep it").

In either case, the money raised would be applied to Rational Review News Digest's year-end fundraiser total.

One personal benefit for me, either way, would be off-loading a difficult decision onto others.

I've been thinking about shaving it off for most of a year now. Once summer arrived and I was out in the sun a lot, I decided to put the decision off until at least autumn, when I'm not spending as much time out in the sun tanning the parts of my body not covered by hair.

What do you guys think? Any of you have a strong enough opinion on the subject to financially back an outcome? I don't want to bother with it if I'm going to end up bound by others' decision for, say, ten bucks.

Travis Kelce: Broken Down, Distracted, or Under-Utilized?

Yesterday (on National Tight Ends Day), Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce scored his 75th career touchdown. Among tight ends, he now places fifth in NFL history on the "most career touchdowns" statistic.

It was also his first touchdown of the season.

I've seen a lot of speculation that Kelce is finally worn out and at the end of his career, or distracted by his acting aspirations and famous relationship, or that the Chiefs are just "under-utilizing" him.

I'm not going to try to convince you that 35-year-old Kelce in functionally equivalent to 25-year-old Kelce. Yes, he is moving toward the end of his career. His job involves getting hit, hard and frequently, by very large muscular men. You can only do that for so long before your body rebels. And of course, age in general takes a toll on speed, reflexes, etc. But he's not broken down. He's still insanely capable.

I doubt a football player of his caliber lets movie ambitions or romantic involvements distract him very much when he's on the field. He's still showing he's insanely capable.

And no, he's not being "under-utilized." He's being fully utilized based on the team's situation.

When Travis Kelce is on the field, there are two possible team situations.

One is that he gets the full attention of at least two of the other team's defenders -- meaning that other Chiefs offensive players are less covered, more open, and able to get yards and scores.

The other is that he gets regular instead of intense coverage from defenders -- in which case he gets the ball and moves it for big yards and/or scores.

The Chiefs' play-callers -- coach Andy Reid, offensive coordinator Matt Nagy, and quarterback Patrick Mahomes -- keep a close eye on which situation is which. When they see Kelce getting a lot of attention, they seize the opportunity to target other players for better results. When their opponents start re-focusing away from Kelce, he gets the ball and does great things with it.

There's a third element that affects that balance:

The Chiefs are trying to (and look like they're in good position to -- they're the only undefeated NFL team at this point in the season) return to, and win, the Super Bowl for a third consecutive time. If they manage it, they'll be the first NFL team to ever do so.

They want Kelce healthy and un-injured for the post-season, so it makes sense right now to really lean into the "let them cover the hell out of him ... but make them tackle other people" side of things.

There's a non-trivial possibility that this will be Kelce's final season. I kind of doubt it, but it's possible. The Chiefs want that season to end with ol' Number 87 putting points on playoff and Super Bowl scoreboards, not sitting on the sidelines with a torn ACL from an October or November game that, win or lose, won't likely affect their chances of making the playoffs.

Wordle 1227 Hint

Hint: If today's Wordle was a color, that color would be either "blue" or "off."

Not Enough? Get the first letter of today's Wordle after the ads below.

New to Wordle? You can play it at the New York Times, and here are some thoughts on how I go about solving each day's puzzle.

First Letter: B

Wordle 1226 Hint

Hint: If I'd been through the desert on a horse with no name, once we got to the beach I'd give it this name.

Not Enough? Get the first letter of today's Wordle after the ads below.

New to Wordle? You can play it at the New York Times, and here are some thoughts on how I go about solving each day's puzzle.

First Letter: S

Wordle 1225 Hint

Hint: Crying havoc is one thing; actually causing it is today's Wordle. 

Not Enough? Get the first letter of today's Wordle after the ads below.

New to Wordle? You can play it at the New York Times, and here are some thoughts on how I go about solving each day's puzzle.

First Letter: W

I Learned Quite A Bit About One Aspect of Artificial Intelligence ... From A Motorcycle Video

And you can too!

Fascinating stuff.

Math has never been my strong suit, which is one of several reasons (booze and women being others) I quickly dropped from an unsuccessful run at an electrical engineering degree. But I've found AI interesting since the 1980s. In fact, my deficiencies in the math area led me to scam my way to a passing grade in a high school physics class with a 1985 paper on "The Tools of Artificial Intelligence."

Fortnine's motorcycle videos are heavy on the math and physics because, well, "Ryan Fortnine" (real first name, pseudonymous last name) majored in physics in college and actually passed, somewhere along the line acquiring great talent at presenting things interestingly and understandably.

Most of the time, that manifests in explaining more, well, physical aspects of motorcycles and motorcycling -- why this engine is more fuel efficient, what causes the infamous Harley Davidson Dyna Death Wobble, etc.

But this one explains how AI processes video input to identify and predict things. Very cool. And relevant to far more than motorcycles.

Wordle 1224 Hint

Hint: Don't worry, be happy -- turn today's Wordle upside down! 

Not Enough? Get the first letter of today's Wordle after the ads below.

New to Wordle? You can play it at the New York Times, and here are some thoughts on how I go about solving each day's puzzle.

First Letter: F

Wordle 1223 Hint

Hint: I find today's Wordle annoying -- it won't stop trying to tell me what to do. 

Not Enough? Get the first letter of today's Wordle after the ads below.

New to Wordle? You can play it at the New York Times, and here are some thoughts on how I go about solving each day's puzzle.

First Letter: B

NFL Week 8 Picks

NFL Week 8 starts Thursday night with the Minnesota Vikings playing the Los Angeles Rams. Here are my picks, as entered in ESPN's "Pigskin Pick'em" game. "Upset" picks -- that is, picks where I'm in the minority as to who will win -- have asterisks next to them.

• Minnesota Vikings beat Los Angeles Rams
• Baltimore Ravens beat Cleveland Browns
• Detroit Lions beat Tennessee Titans
• Miami Dolphins beat Arizona Cardinals*
• New York Jets beat New England Patriots
• Atlanta Falcons beat Tampa Bay Buccaneers*
• Jacksonville Jaguars beat Green Bay Packers*
• Houston Texans beat Indianapolis Colts
• Philadelphia Eagles beat Cincinnati Bengals
• Buffalo Bills beat Seattle Seahawks
• Washington Commanders beat Chicago Bears
• Denver Broncos beat Carolina Panthers
• Kansas City Chiefs beat Las Vegas Raiders
• San Francisco 49ers beat Dallas Cowboys
• Pittsburgh Steelers beat New York Giants

At this point in the season, picks get easier in one way and harder in a different way.

They get easier because by now it's obvious which teams are great, which teams are potentially good, and which teams are almost certainly going to keep having a bad season.

They get harder because when every weekend is a series of all-out fights between gangs of very large, very strong, very fast guys, by Week 8 there are a lot of very large, very strong, very fast guys who are injured and not playing for varying periods of time. Those injured guys are being replaced by a lot of less experienced (either overall or within the season) very large, very strong, very fast guys. Determining which team is the most beat up, in the worst ways, and how well it will handle that, is a challenge.

BUT!

The former benefit ameliorates the latter challenge, because the teams that are great so far are probably great in part because they've been literally rolling with the punches the whole time, finding ways to win even with key players out on injury. That doesn't mean they can't lose -- every team except the Kansas City Chiefs has now lost at least one game -- but they've already established they can win repeatedly, too.

The season isn't over 'til it's over. Only one NFL team (the 1972 Miami Dolphins) has ever had a perfect season. Other than assuming -- because my religion requires it -- that the Chiefs will go to, and win, the Super Bowl, I'm not making any assumptions as to which teams we'll see in the post-season. Remember, in 2022, the Jacksonville Jaguars had a three-win, seven-loss start to their season ... then turned things around, made it two games deep in the playoffs, and only lost by a single score to the Chiefs in the divisional round.

Wordle 1222 Hint

Hint: Gawrsh, Walt, what a wacky Wordle! Hoo hoo hoo hoo! 

Not Enough? Get the first letter of today's Wordle after the ads below.

New to Wordle? You can play it at the New York Times, and here are some thoughts on how I go about solving each day's puzzle.

First Letter: G

Well, This Could Get Interesting ...

On his personal social media network, disgraced former US president Donald Trump has posted images of a "demand letter" from his attorney to CBS. Excerpt:

We therefore demand that you immediately provide and publicly release the full, unedited transcript of the 60 Minutes Interview with Kamala Harris. Additionally, in contemplation of possible litigation, we demand that you preserve all communications and documents relating to this Interview, together with any edits of the Interview's content, and that you refrain from destroying any relevant communications or documents.

Such a "demand" letter contemplates the legal process of "discovery," in this case presumably for purposes of proving that the interview was edited to make Harris look better than she would have in un-edited form.

So far as I know, it's not illegal to edit interviews for any reasons the media outlets running those interviews might have. But let's assume that this goes to court.

Has Trump's attorney mentioned to him that "discovery" runs in both directions?

As defendant in such hypothetical litigation, CBS would presumably be interested in the conduct and content of every media appearance Trump has ever made -- if those appearances were edited, how they were edited, and why they were edited, and would be entitled to all that material as "discovery," to defend themselves if, on no other grounds, that his interviewers do that all the time too, often at his behest and per his direction.

Disclaimer: I am not an attorney and this is not legal advice. But one piece of legal advice I've heard from numerous attorneys on numerous subjects is "never forget that discovery is a bitch."

NFL Week 7 Results

My Week 7 picks, green for correct ones, red for incorrect ones:

• Denver Broncos beat New Orleans Saints*
• Jacksonville Jaguars beat New England Patriots
• Atlanta Falcons beat Seattle Seahawks
• Buffalo Bills beat Tennessee Titans
• Cincinnati Bengals beat Cleveland Browns
• Green Bay Packers beat Houston Texans*
• Miami Dolphins beat Indianapolis Colts*
• Minnesota Vikings beat  Detroit Lions*
• Philadelphia Eagles beat New York Giants
• Las Vegas Raiders beat Los Angeles Rams*
• Washington Commanders beat Carolina Panthers
• Kansas City Chiefs beat San Francisco 49ers
• Pittsburgh Steelers beat New York Jets
• Baltimore Ravens beat Tampa Bay Buccaneers
• Los Angeles Chargers beat Arizona Cardinals

Ten right, five wrong. For the season, I am 68 right, 39 wrong and rank in the 90.4th percentile among players of ESPN's "Pigskin Pick'em" game.

We're now at that point in the season where injury reports truly become a main focus. They affect my picks when it comes to every team except the Kansas City Chiefs.

The obvious reason that injuries don't affect my picks when it comes to the Chiefs is that I'm a diehard Chiefs fan and will never pick any team but the Chiefs to win a game the Chiefs are playing in.

The less obvious reason manifested itself in a big way this week when the Chiefs went to San Francisco and took on their opponents from last year's Super Bowl, the 49ers.

Both teams have been positively hammered by injuries. The Chiefs came into the game missing several of their best players on both offense and defense, and lost more injured players during the game. Ditto the 49ers.

But there's something about the way the Chiefs do things.

The commentators phrase it as "Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes find ways to win games with whoever they have on the field."

Travis Kelce is part of that. When everyone's healthy, he's a threat because the possibility that he could be used means defenders have to pay extra attention to him. When everyone's not health, the possibility turns into a reality, which means even more attention on him ... and which gives rookie replacements, sometimes playing in their very first games, opportunities to shine.

Yes, other teams aspire to that same kind of flexibility. But the Chiefs excel at it.

Why? Because they're a tight unit. They value all their players. They try to give every player a chance to be The Man whenever possible. And every player repays that sentiment with the best effort possible, if for no other reason than that once you've been The Man, you get even more opportunities to be The Man.

A corollary: Watch the play-calling. When a player gets a chance to be The Man and messes up, within three plays or so Mahomes will go right back to that player with another chance. You don't get just one chance. You get a mulligan and a shot at redeeming yourself if it doesn't work out. You have to be a really bad player, or cop an attitude and indicate you don't care, to not get to be a full participant in victory. If you're a really bad player, you never got on to the team in the first place. If you have a bad attitude, you aren't on the team for very long.

With the exception of quarterbacks who know they'd be stuck in the "break glass in case of severe Mahomes injury" cabinet, I doubt that there's a single NFL player who doesn't privately wish he was on that team.

It's not that the Chiefs couldn't win games with Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes, and the local high school junior varsity squad filling out their roster. They probably could. But they don't have to, because they attract people who have the talent, the skill, and the ambition, and then they reward those people with glory.

Wordle 1221 Hint

Hint: Into metal? You might do today's Wordle out loud, or at the devil. 

Not Enough? Get the first letter of today's Wordle after the ads below.

New to Wordle? You can play it at the New York Times, and here are some thoughts on how I go about solving each day's puzzle.

First Letter: S

Wordle 1220 Hint

Hint: With one you can eat soup. Find two and you've got yourself a musical instrument. 

Not Enough? Get the first letter of today's Wordle after the ads below.

New to Wordle? You can play it at the New York Times, and here are some thoughts on how I go about solving each day's puzzle.

First Letter: S

Wordle 1219 Hint

Hint: As propositions go, today's Wordle is risky and unpredictable.

Not Enough? Get the first letter of today's Wordle after the ads below.

New to Wordle? You can play it at the New York Times, and here are some thoughts on how I go about solving each day's puzzle.

First Letter: D

I Guess I Kind of Phoned It In ... Maybe?

Today's Garrison Center column pretty much just summarizes the things I've been telling y'all here at the blog about who I think will win the presidential election and why.

One reason for that is described in the column itself: Presidential elections suck all the air out of the news cycle room and leave me not with writer's block so much as writer's burnout. It just doesn't feel like anyone's going to want to read about anything else.

A second reason is that having finally given in to the temptation to go pure nuts and bolts election predictor, I really can't do that again in this cycle. I pulled that trigger, and now that chamber is empty, which means I'll have to do the harder work of finding other stuff to address. It's like intentionally running the motorcycle out of gas so that I'll have to do more walking as I keep saying I'd like to do.

A third reason is that Thursday's column ran late (into Friday), and I really wanted to get "caught up" as soon as I woke up this morning, instead of pushing today's column to Sunday and spending all next week feeling "behind."

And a fourth reason, which only occurred to me about the time I hit "publish," is that hey, most readers of Garrison Center material are not readers of this blog ... so it's new to them, and they may find it interesting.

Anyway, I hope that column works for everyone.

Wordle 1218 Hint

Hint: Think "optic" or "dietary."

Not Enough? Get the first letter of today's Wordle after the ads below.

New to Wordle? You can play it at the New York Times, and here are some thoughts on how I go about solving each day's puzzle.

First Letter: F

My First Sub-50-Degree Ride on the Italica Bulldog 150

It was fairly short -- a mile and a half each way from my home to the nearest lab for a blood draw (I have a regular doctor appointment next week). Unfortunately, they had no orders for lab work in their system, so I have an inquiry in to the doctor and will presumably have to make that little run again.

The bike doesn't seem to especially dislike lower temperatures, although I did give the engine a couple of minutes to warm up after a slightly rough/coughing start.

The Fonzie jacket did its job quite well. When it gets actually cold I'll probably wear a long-sleeve shirt instead of a t-shirt under it, and a neck gaiter, less for having a warmer neck and more to reduce the flow of cold air into my helmet through the bottom.

Further down, I did wish, a little, that I'd layered instead of just wearing jeans. But it wasn't terrible or anything. If I'm riding in the 30s or 20s I'll probably just wear the ol' union suit for top and bottom insulation.

I have a $5 pair of "handlebar gloves" (they mount on the motorcycle itself) coming from Temu for cold-weather riding, but I will probably get some warmer regular gloves too.

Wordle 1217 Hint

Hint: The action component of being frugal or ungenerous. Also, a variety of sandpiper.

Not Enough? Get the first letter of today's Wordle after the ads below.

New to Wordle? You can play it at the New York Times, and here are some thoughts on how I go about solving each day's puzzle.

First Letter: S

And Here We Go With the Damn Writer's Block Again

It's not a general writer's block. It's a politics-specific writer's block.

Absent some kind of completely unpredictable, non-campaign-generated "October Surprise," the 2024 election cycle is effectively over.

More than 7 million Americans have already voted.

The major party candidates are in "try to get my own voters out and don't fuck up in public" mode, not "try to change minds" mode. Even Harris's interview with "unfriendly" Fox News was just an exercise in "keep looking nominally sane and not too cowardly" to maybe move a handful of votes from "I'm pretending to be undecided but kinda favor Harris" to "OK, I'm actually filling out my ballot for Harris now."

And yet, that mess is pretty much all America's going to be talked about for another couple of weeks.

I'm not going to skip a Garrison Center column (that's for when I'm sick or there's a hurricane or whatever), but it may be late tonight or early tomorrow before something really clicks for me.

NFL Week 7 Picks

NFL Week 7 starts Thursday night with the Broncos going up against the Saints. Here are my picks, as entered in ESPN's "Pigskin Pick'em" game. "Upset" picks -- that is, picks where I'm in the minority as to who will win -- have asterisks next to them.

• Denver Broncos beat New Orleans Saints*
• Jacksonville Jaguars beat New England Patriots
• Atlanta Falcons beat Seattle Seahawks
• Buffalo Bills beat Tennessee Titans
• Cincinnati Bengals beat Cleveland Browns
• Green Bay Packers beat Houston Texans*
• Miami Dolphins beat Indianapolis Colts*
• Minnesota Vikings beat  Detroit Lions*
• Philadelphia Eagles beat New York Giants
• Las Vegas Raiders beat Los Angeles Rams*
• Washington Commanders beat Carolina Panthers
• Kansas City Chiefs beat San Francisco 49ers
• Pittsburgh Steelers beat New York Jets
• Baltimore Ravens beat Tampa Bay Buccaneers
• Los Angeles Chargers beat Arizona Cardinals

Wordle 1216 Hint

Hint: Trouble with today's Wordle? Try splitting it into two equal parts.

Not Enough? Get the first letter of today's Wordle after the ads below.

New to Wordle? You can play it at the New York Times, and here are some thoughts on how I go about solving each day's puzzle.

First Letter: H

Wordle 1215 Hint

Hint: Consider today's Wordle hint a gift, not a loan.

Not Enough? Get the first letter of today's Wordle after the ads below.

New to Wordle? You can play it at the New York Times, and here are some thoughts on how I go about solving each day's puzzle.

First Letter: G

Election 2024: OK, Here's Something That Could Affect the Outcome

For each presidential election since 2012, I have:

1. Issued a state-by-state prediction of outcomes; and
2. Stood by that prediction instead of changing it at the last minute.

I usually try to do that fairly early (this year I did it on September 21).

And, without exception in the three elections I've predicted for, I've been correct as to the overall winner and as to the winner in (exactly, all three times) 48 of 50 states.

My prediction this year, in aggregate, is 319 electoral votes for Kamala Harris, 219 electoral votes for Donald Trump.

Will this be the year I fail to correctly predict the outcome in 47 or fewer states and/or the overall winner?

Well, it's possible. And here's a new data point that might contribute to that.

Presidential elections that are even a little bit close always boil down to turnout -- the candidate/campaign that's better at getting its voters to the polls wins.

And until recently, Trump's campaign was sucking at that, having handed off its Get Out The Vote operation to an amateurish outfit with little experience.

But now Elon Musk's America PAC is spending big money ($87 million as of October 9) on good old-fashioned (although very tech-assisted) door-knocking/direct mail GOTV work in swing states.

And they seem to be doing it right. Canvassers, the Post reports, "were told to focus their remaining time on getting confirmed Trump supporters to vote early, instead of spending precious time trying to change the minds of undecided or Harris voters."

I said before that Harris is in the driver's seat and that there's nothing Trump himself can do to change that -- unless she publicly shits the bed, she's got the edge on "number of supporters." Every time he runs his yap, he loses a few more, and that's going to remain true.

But if Musk can get Trump's vote out better than the Democrats can get Harris's vote out, it could still go the other way.

NFL Week 6 Results

My Week 6 picks, green for correct ones, red for incorrect ones:

• San Francisco 49ers beat Seattle Seahawks
• Jacksonville Jaguars beat  Chicago Bears*
• Green Bay Packers beat Arizona Cardinals
• Indianapolis Colts beat Tennessee Titans
• Houston Texans beat New England Patriots
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat New Orleans Saints
• Philadelphia Eagles beat Cleveland Browns
• Washington Commanders beat Baltimore Ravens*
• Denver Broncos beat Los Angeles Chargers*
• Pittsburgh Steelers beat Las Vegas Raiders
• Detroit Lions beat Dallas Cowboys
• Atlanta Falcons beat Carolina Panthers
• New York Giants beat Cincinnati Bengals*
• New York Jets beat Buffalo Bills*

Nine right, five wrong. For the season, I am 58 right, 34 wrong and rank in the 92nd percentile among players of ESPN's "Pigskin Pick'em" game.

Wordle 1214 Hint

 Hint: A tool for removing a sample from, or the center of, something.

Not Enough? Get the first letter of today's Wordle after the ads below.

New to Wordle? You can play it at the New York Times, and here are some thoughts on how I go about solving each day's puzzle.

First Letter: C

So Yeah, The Blogging is A Little Bit Slower at the Moment

But I'm well on track to make my 650 posts for the year, and I expect I'll get back on it shortly.

What's going on? Well, the usual pre-election malaise. As mentioned in a response in this month's AMA thread (which inspired this riff on the subject), I find the height of election season annoying/dissatisfying. 

It feels like these civic rituals suck all the interesting air out of the communal room. In October of even-numbered years, writing starts to feel like ... work ... in a negative way. By this point in an election year, I usually feel like I've said all I have to say about the election and I usually feel like nobody wants to talk about anything else.

Today, I met reader GregL for a soft drink and some conversation. We talked quite a bit about the election, but that's fine, it's not exhausting in the way writing about the election is. And it may help with the writing -- he asked me a couple of questions that might become column topics and/or blog posts because they're not the kind of questions you get from reading the punditry.

Rolling out to meet GregL was a nice excuse to do my favorite thing (lately), which is climb on the motorcycle and put a few miles on it. Getting up toward 700 miles on the Italica Bulldog 150, and I'm starting to become fairly confident (hopefully not over-confident). Nice ride there. Not so much home (I hit evening rush hour traffic and didn't get to stretch the thing out to its 55-57 mph top speed until I was near home).

Nice day overall, and when I got home I caught up with work not much later than I usually do anyway. But of course I've got a column to write tomorrow. If anyone has any topic suggestions that 1) are in the news cycle, 2) not about the elections for office (referendums might do), and 3) of likely interest to the mainstream newspaper reading public, put them in comments!

Wordle 1213 Hint

Hint: The whole scale, as in:

Not Enough? Get the first letter of today's Wordle after the ads below.

New to Wordle? You can play it at the New York Times, and here are some thoughts on how I go about solving each day's puzzle.

First Letter: G

Wordle 1212 Hint

Hint: Solving today's Wordle is all about position -- you're gonna have to get low.

Not Enough? Get the first letter of today's Wordle after the ads below.

New to Wordle? You can play it at the New York Times, and here are some thoughts on how I go about solving each day's puzzle.

First Letter: P

Wordle 1211 Hint

Hint: To pull an answer out of today's Wordle, try dish soap mixed with hydrogen peroxide and baking soda.

Not Enough? Get the first letter of today's Wordle after the ads below.

New to Wordle? You can play it at the New York Times, and here are some thoughts on how I go about solving each day's puzzle.

First Letter: S

Wordle 1210 Hint

Hint: Windy, with sudden intermittent escalations.

Not Enough? Get the first letter of today's Wordle after the ads below.

New to Wordle? You can play it at the New York Times, and here are some thoughts on how I go about solving each day's puzzle.

First Letter: G

I'm Told That We Did Have a Pretty Good Blow Last Night ...

... and that the lights flickered but never went full off. I guess I slept through it. When I fell out, there were gusts of maybe 20 mph or so. Woke up early this morning, got RRND out, waited for more storm, but nothing showed. No damage around the house that I've noticed.

Good.

I've been through enough hurricanes now that I'd have to think pretty hard to remember them all, and only one (Irma) has really been especially bad here at the house, for which I'm grateful.

I'd rather be all prepped up and have a storm not really show than the other way around.

You Had One Job, Netflix

I was happy to pay for Netflix. I wasn't always happy with what was or wasn't available, but it was a reasonably good deal. Been with them for more than 20 years, since back in the DVD by mail era.

Then, a few weeks ago, I got what sounded like good news: I was being automatically switched to an ad-supported plan, at a lower price! I don't mind ads.

Except: Now half the stuff I decide I want to watch isn't available unless I switch to a non-ad-supported plan at a price quite a bit higher than what I was paying before the ad-supported thing came out.

And: After producing what I personally found to be their most interesting series in a long time (KAOS), they've announced they're canceling it after one season.

My household probably spends more money than it should on streaming (although not nearly as much as we used to pay for cable), and Netflix used to be on the very bottom of my "if I decide to cancel a service it will be this one" list.

Now it's at or near the top.

Wordle 1209 Hint

Hint: It's how you turn wood into a statue or a turkey into Thanksgiving dinner servings.

Not Enough? Get the first letter of today's Wordle after the ads below.

New to Wordle? You can play it at the New York Times, and here are some thoughts on how I go about solving each day's puzzle.

First Letter: C

NFL Week 6 Picks

Note: I've made my picks and am writing this post on Tuesday afternoon, for later posting. The appearance of this post will not necessarily mean that I've weathered Hurricane Milton and have power and Internet again.

NFL Week 6 starts Thursday night with the 49ers versus the Seahawks. Here are my picks, as entered in ESPN's "Pigskin Pick'em" game. "Upset" picks -- that is, picks where I'm in the minority as to who will win -- have asterisks next to them.

• San Francisco 49ers beat Seattle Seahawks
• Jacksonville Jaguars beat  Chicago Bears*
• Green Bay Packers beat Arizona Cardinals
• Indianapolis Colts beat Tennessee Titans
• Houston Texans beat New England Patriots
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat New Orleans Saints
• Philadelphia Eagles beat Cleveland Browns
• Washington Commanders beat Baltimore Ravens*
• Denver Broncos beat Los Angeles Chargers*
• Pittsburgh Steelers beat Las Vegas Raiders
• Detroit Lions beat Dallas Cowboys
• Atlanta Falcons beat Carolina Panthers
• New York Giants beat Cincinnati Bengals*
• New York Jets beat Buffalo Bills*

This will make two weeks without a Chiefs game for me -- Monday Night Football was on ESPN, to which I do not subscribe, and they've got a bye this week. So if there has to be a hurricane knocking out my ability to watch football, I guess this is the best week for it.

It's hard to be unhappy with the Chiefs' performance so far this season. They're 5-0 and one of two undefeated teams in the NFL this season (the other is the Minnesota Vikings). And some new guys are definitely stepping things up to keep getting wins despite the absence of several key veterans due to injuries.

Wordle 1208 Hint

Hint: Heather may have two, but Christina's was dearest.

Not Enough? Get the first letter of today's Wordle after the ads below.

New to Wordle? You can play it at the New York Times, and here are some thoughts on how I go about solving each day's puzzle.

First Letter: M

Final Prep

On one hand, I just have a gut feeling that Milton is going to be worse than Helene.

On the other hand, usually when I get such feelings, the ensuing storm turns out to be (at least in my locale) a nothingburger.

But anyway, I decided to take an extra "may have several days without Internet and electricity" step. In addition to making sure all of my electronic devices are fully charged, I also made sure I had the Kindle reader app installed on all of them (except for, you know, the Kindle), and that I had several books (the Delphi version of the complete works of Nietzsche, Dante's Divine Comedy, and a couple of easier-reading novels) actually downloaded to said devices. If I'm just going to be lounging around awaiting power/Internet, I might as well improve my mind some.

This week's NFL picks are made, and scheduled for posting tomorrow whether I'm online or not.

The motorcycle "garage" has been folded up and stored, and the motorcycle will go into a real (neighbor's) garage later this evening. 

Tomorrow's edition of RRND is as ready as it's possible to be more than 12 hours ahead of publication, with a notice at the site that it may be "web-only" for the next few days.

A few more household items (filling bathtubs with water to flush toilets with, etc.) to deal with, but I'm essentially as ready as it's possible to be.

See y'all on the flip side. Be safe.

NFL Week 5 Results

My Week 5 picks, green for correct ones, red for incorrect ones:

• Atlanta Falcons beat Tampa Bay Buccaneers*
• Minnesota Vikings beat New York Jets
• Chicago Bears beat Carolina Panthers
• Baltimore Ravens beat Cincinnati Bengals
• Miami Dolphins beat New England Patriots*
• Washington Commanders beat Cleveland Browns
• Jacksonville Jaguars beat Indianapolis Colts*
• Houston Texans beat Buffalo Bills*
• Las Vegas Raiders beat Denver Broncos
• San Francisco 49ers beat Arizona Cardinals
• Green Bay Packers beat Los Angeles Rams
• Seattle Seahawks beat New York Giants
• Pittsburgh Steelers beat Dallas Cowboys*
• Kansas City Chiefs beat New Orleans Saints

Ten right, four wrong. For the season, I am 49 right, 29 wrong and rank in the 98.8th percentile among players of ESPN's "Pigskin Pick'em" game.

With a hurricane coming in tonight or tomorrow, I may or may not get my Week 6 picks up before Thursday Night Football kicks off, but I will have verifiably made those picks at the ESPN site (that's on my agenda for today).