Post-Convention Note #2

I was wrong. Which I find surprising -- usually when I think I was wrong, it turns out I was mistaken.

I was probably wrong about several things (and was certainly wrong in certain predictions I made), but I want to focus here on what may be the biggest thing I was wrong about: Donald Trump's speech at the national convention.

My calculation was that there was a 90% chance he would cancel and mock us for really thinking he'd bother with us. He didn't cancel. He showed up.

Of the remaining 10%, I thought at least half of the possible outcomes were bad for the Libertarian Party, the main one being that media coverage would make it look like "Libertarians are MAGA Trumptards." That didn't happen either.

So I was 95% wrong, and we got the 5% good outcomes. The media coverage was of Libertarians booing Trump, and of him bending the knee in an attempt to court Libertarian votes, and of him getting a tiny handful of write-in votes for our presidential nomination (which he was ineligible for anyway, both per our party rules and the GOP's prohibition on him accepting).

I'm starting to think that Angela McArdle may be smarter than me.

Note: I did not attend the Trump speech, but GregL did. If he'd like to share his thoughts on it in comments, that would be really cool.