A Disclaimer In My Own Defense

I've already done some predictive blogging concerning Election 2024, including this from the other day: "Trump's going to win the [Iowa] caucus. Everyone knows Trump's going to win the caucus." And so on and so forth.

Since that caucus occurs today (with various state primaries to follow), it seems like a good time to remind you of something I've said before:

I'm terrible at predicting primary/nomination outcomes.

Three presidential elections in a row now, I've correctly predicted the outcomes in 48 of 50 states.

In 2016, I even publicly predicted that Donald Trump would win Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan (and with them the election) as early as May, and was nearly universally denounced as insane by my friends for predicting that he'd win any one of those four states, let alone the election (he won all four, and the election).

But prior to that, I was on record as saying there was no way in hell Trump was going to win the Republican nomination.

So, until the nominations are firmed up, take any predictions I make with a large grain of salt.

That said, Trump is going to win the Iowa caucus. Everyone knows Trump is going to win the Iowa caucus.