Week 4 NFL Results

My picks, labeled green for correct, red for incorrect (and left black for neither):

• Seattle Seahawks beat Arizona Cardinals
• Minnesota Vikings beat Pittsburgh Steelers
• Washington Commanders beat Atlanta Falcons
• Buffalo Bills beat New Orleans Saints
• Detroit Lions beat Cleveland Browns
• New England Patriots beat Carolina Panthers
• Los Angeles Chargers beat New York Giants
• Philadelphia Eagles beat Tampa Bay Buccaneers
• Tennessee Titans beat Houston Texans*
• Los Angeles Rams beat Indianapolis Colts
• San Francisco 49ers beat Jacksonville Jaguars
• Kansas City Chiefs beat Baltimore Ravens*
• Chicago Bears beat Las Vegas Raiders
• Dallas Cowboys beat Green Bay Packers*
• Miami Dolphins beat New York Jets
• Denver Broncos beat Cincinnati Bengals

Ten right, five wrong, one neither (the Cowboys/Packers game ended in a tie). I've done worse, and four of the five that I got wrong were games that most other people got wrong as well. It was kind of a weird week. I'm 40-22 for the season and have moved up from the 60th to the 68.5th percentile among players of  ESPN's Pigskin Pick'em game

Wordle 1564 Hint

Hint: By reputation, the meanest variety of poultry.

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First Letter: G

Wordle 1563 Hint

Hint: These courts don't deal with crimes.

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First Letter: C

It's Not Just Guns

L. Neil Smith:

Never Forget, even for an instant, that the one and only reason anybody has for taking your gun away is to make you weaker than he is, so he can do something to you that you wouldn't allow him to do if you were equipped to prevent it.

 Additional application of principle:

Never Forget, even for an instant, that the one and only reason a government agency has for limiting press coverage of its activities is to keep you in the dark about things you'd object to that agency doing if you knew about them.

House-Hunting Is Kind Of Exhausting

For me, anyway. 

Almost every place we look at, I'm like "yeah, I could live here, no problem."

Almost every place we look at, there's something disqualifying about with my wife.

We made an offer on a place 10 days or so ago, and it looked like we might get it, but then someone came in with a cash offer versus our financing-contingent offer. Very disappointing.

We looked at three houses yesterday. I like two of them a lot. Tamara likes one of them a lot. The one neither of us liked, I could still have lived there, no problem.

The one I liked and she didn't, it was all about a short stretch of pretty bad road to get to. Reminded me a lot of the road that reader GregL lives on, only about two miles of it instead of a short distance: Deep ruts in soft sand with a grassy middle.

Thing is, I'm the one who would be most inconvenienced by the road. Tamara drives an SUV. I ride a motorcycle. We took separate vehicles for the house visit, and I was the one who was in any real danger of wiping out versus it being a bit bumpy. Oh, well.

Hopefully we'll make an offer on the one we both liked, and hopefully it will be accepted.  More houses to go visit today, though, so it may be one of those rare occasions when I don't get a Garrison Center column out.

Wordle 1562 Hint

Hint: Descriptor for desserts that tend to ooze a little bit (think lava cakes, s'mores, etc.).

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First Letter: G

Wordle 1561 Hint

Hint: When on this, your phone or other device isn't working correctly.

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First Letter: F

We Already Knew James Comey Was A Liar

Whether or not this particular charge -- that he was lying when he told Congress he hadn't authorized leaks to the media -- sticks, there's zero doubt that he's lied to Congress more than once. Among other things:

• Comey testified before Congress in 2020 that he didn't know about Hillary Clinton's plans to link Trump to Russia ("that doesn't ring any bells with me"). But declassified documents establish that he was briefed on Clinton's plans in 2016 by then CIA director (and former Communist Party member) John Brennan.
• He also testified that he briefed Trump only on the "salacious" parts of the Steele Dossier. Declassified memos show that he actually discussed the dossier in depth with Trump.

Comey's a liar. That's an established matter of public record.

And he should have been fired as soon as, if not before, he came out in 2016 with his "we can't prosecute Hillary Clinton because she's Hillary Clinton" BS after an FBI investigation established -- almost certainly beyond reasonable doubt had the matter been prosecuted and put before a jury -- that Clinton had illegally and negligently exposed classified information through use of a private email server.

I'm happy to see him face the music. I just wish that it was over his actual crimes rather than only because he pisses off Donald Trump.

Wordle 1560 Hint

Hint: "Dawdle" has too many letters to be a Wordle answer, but this synonym has the requisite five.

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First Letter: D

Wordle 1559 Hint

Hint: Curtains get this kind of hangover, not the drinking kind.

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First Letter: D

As of this very minute ...

... this blog is old enough to drink.

Its first post went up 21 years ago, at 4:32pm on September 24, 2004.

Happy birthday to it.

Week 4 NFL Picks

Last week I went 12 right, four wrong ... am I starting to get the pulse of the season, or was it just dumb luck? Maybe this week will provide some evidence for which. My picks:

• Seattle Seahawks beat Arizona Cardinals
• Minnesota Vikings beat Pittsburgh Steelers
• Washington Commanders beat Atlanta Falcons
• Buffalo Bills beat New Orleans Saints
• Detroit Lions beat Cleveland Browns
• New England Patriots beat Carolina Panthers
• Los Angeles Chargers beat New York Giants
• Philadelphia Eagles beat Tampa Bay Buccaneers
• Tennessee Titans beat Houston Texans*
• Los Angeles Rams beat Indianapolis Colts
• San Francisco 49ers beat Jacksonville Jaguars
• Kansas City Chiefs beat Baltimore Ravens*
• Chicago Bears beat Las Vegas Raiders
• Dallas Cowboys beat Green Bay Packers*
• Miami Dolphins beat New York Jets
• Denver Broncos beat Cincinnati Bengals

"Upset" picks -- which means outcomes that go against the majority picks among those playing ESPN's Pigskin Pick'em game as of the time I make my picks-- are marked with asterisks.

The "Texans beat the Titans" pick is pretty much a straight matter of comparing injury reports. Both teams are 0 and 3, but Texas is 0 and 3 and beat up badly. I was also leaning toward the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to upset the Philadelphia Eagles, but the injury reports changed my mind and I went with the crowd. So yeah, I'm starting to watch that information more closely.

The Chiefs v. Ravens pick is also an easy explain -- I don't ever pick the Chiefs to lose, period. That said, both teams are 1 and 2, so it's most likely just about whether Andy Reid or John Harbaugh is better at getting his team's shit together.

Cowboys vs. Packers? The Cowboys played well against the Eagles in Week 1, Prescott seems to be getting the job done at QB, and I suspect the Cowboys are in "beginning to gel" mode while the Packers are in "starting to have things come loose and fall off" mode. From what I'm reading, the consensus spread is Packers by 7, but I expect that even with CeeDee Lamb out, I think the Cowboys can over-perform.

If I change any picks, it will before the game in question kicks off and I will clearly mark changes as changes in updates to this post.

If you'd like to play too, here's an invite link (so far as I know I don't get anything out of it except a "leaderboard" of me and everyone I invite so we can compete for bragging rights).

Wordle 1558 Hint

Hint: "Not the sharpest knife in the drawer" works as a hint for today's Wordle, whether intended as a literal description or figure of speech.

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First Letter: B

Week 3 NFL Results

My picks, labeled green for correct, red for incorrect:

• Buffalo Bills beat Miami Dolphins
• Green Bay Packers beat Cleveland Browns
• Indianapolis Colts beat Tennessee Titans
• Minnesota Vikings beat Cincinnati Bengals
• Pittsburgh Steelers beat New England Patriots
• Los Angeles Rams beat Philadelphia Eagles*
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat New York Jets
• Washington Commanders beat Las Vegas Raiders
• Atlanta Falcons beat Carolina Panthers
• Jacksonville Jaguars beat Houston Texans*
• Los Angeles Chargers beat Denver Broncos
• Seattle Seahawks beat New Orleans Saints
• Dallas Cowboys beat Chicago Bears
• San Francisco 49ers beat Arizona Cardinals
• Kansas City Chiefs beat New York Giants
• Detroit Lions beat Baltimore Ravens*

Not a bad week -- 12 right, four wrong, although for some reason ESPN's Pigskin Pick'em game didn't register my Kansas City / New York pick, presumably mildly affecting my stats there (I finally moved into the top half of players at the 60th percentile; I'm at 30 correct, 17 incorrect for the season).

I predicted three upsets (versus the predictions of other players); two of them worked out.

There seems to be substantial fan consternation about the one that didn't, but I haven't really looked into whether that consternation is warranted. I mean, it's not like it's surprising that the Eagles won a football game. Does anyone believe they'll stop winning games if the "tush push" gets banned or if the refs get better at detecting fouls within that particular play? My impression of the Eagles in general, and of quarterback Jalen Hurts and coach Nick Sirianni in particular, is that they're very adaptable to situations and would just find other ways to win if that one got taken away.

Wordle 1557 Hint

Hint: A place where you're well-advised to hold your tongue.

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First Letter: M

I'm More Scared of Anesthesia than of Needles

John Semley at The Atlantic:

Frank Charles, a pet-resort owner and former five-term mayor of St. Augustine, Florida, wanted a tattoo. He just wasn’t sure that he could take the pain. Then he started seeing advertisements for a place in Miami called Sedation Ink, which offers clients the attention of its licensed anesthesiologists.

Long story short, the guy spent $29k to be put under for eight hours while a large tattoo got done.

I've got four tattoos (OK, five, but one of them, a teenage girlfriend's name, was covered by another). 

Getting all of them involved at least a little pain during their creation, especially the tribal around my lower leg just above the ankle for some reason. The least painful ones were probably the girl's name and the anarchy symbol I gave myself as a teenager using a sewing needle, thread, and India ink (I later had a tattoo artist improve the anarchy symbol).

But all of them involved a certain amount of pain afterward, too, while healing. Or at least tenderness.

The idea of letting someone put me under anesthesia is something I dislike in general. I've had one general anesthesia experience, which went well, but I see too many "died of complications during surgery" stories, some of them anesthesia-related, to find the idea attractive. Especially at a tattoo shop.

Damn, people. If you want ink, put up with the pain. If you're a drinker, maybe get just lit enough to be relaxed right before, but not so drunk that the tattoo artist questions your competence to consent.

I've seen guys cry while getting tattoos done, but I don't remember any of them saying they regretted it afterward. And personally, I consider the pain a part of the experience that makes the art special.

If I could afford it, I'd have a lot more ink. Full sleeves, big back piece, etc. A few years ago, my daughter indicated an interest in becoming a tattoo artist. I bought her the gun, needles, ink, etc., and told her she was free to practice on me, and if she messed up, no biggie. Apparently she found that idea scary. She practiced on synthetic skin made for that purpose, anddid a couple of small cover-ups for friends. Then when she ran out of sterile new needles, she decided it just wasn't for her.

Wordle 1556 Hint

Hint: This kind of pen is old tech.

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First Letter: Q

All That Gospel Music ...

 ... as warm-up for the Charlie Kirk event. I've been watching for more than an hour, and so far it's all "modern gospel" all the time.

I've got nothing against gospel music, although this particular band isn't really the kind I prefer (I like old-time bluegrass and "southern gospel"). They're clearly well-prepped for long sets and doing a good job. With multiple vocalists and numerous instrumentalists, they may have been put together specifically for the show.

But my impression was that Kirk was a rock music kind of guy. According to Grok:

He's described himself as having grown up listening primarily to classic rock and 1980s music, with a particular fondness for bands like Led Zeppelin, The Rolling Stones, and AC/DC. ... Kirk has also expressed admiration for some 80s pop and rock acts, such as Journey and Bon Jovi, which he credits with shaping his worldview on individualism and American optimism. ... Overall, his preferences lean toward timeless, guitar-driven rock that aligns with his conservative ethos ...

If this event was specifically a "funeral," I could see making the music all-gospel, but if it's more a "celebration of life" type thing, you'd think they'd mix it up a little. Maybe get Kid Rock, Ted Nugent, whoever, to give it some not-specifically-religious celebratory energy.

Maybe they'll do that during the event proper, which I think is about to start. If you want to watch:

Wordle 1555 Hint

Hint: A congregation of witches.

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First Letter: C

Wordle 1554 Hint

Hint: Take a rain check.

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First Letter: D

Probably More Verbiage Than The Kimmel Thing Really Deserves

When I heard Jimmy Kimmel was getting canceled, my immediate reaction was based on the all-time sum total of my Kimmel viewing having been five, maybe ten, minutes in snippet form while channel and/or YouTube surfing. I pretty much abandoned late-night TV when Johnny Carson retired and David Letterman didn't get picked as his replacement on The Tonight Show.

Looking back, I see that he was on a show I watched occasionally, Win Ben Stein's Money, a loooong time ago. I remember the show; his role in it, whatever that may have been, not so much.

So Kimmel's cancellation affects me not at all in terms of viewing habits. I've never been a fan and that's not likely to change. To the extent that I've noticed him at all, my perception of him is that he's mildly annoying, but I haven't noticed him enough to have a strong opinion either way.

I'm opposed to anti-trust law on principle, so I also have no particular gripe about the pressure brought to bear on Disney/ABC by Sinclair and Nexstar, which respectively own 38 and 28 ABC affiliate TV stations, to dump Kimmel's show. It does make a good market case for content providers getting their stuff to viewers directly instead of through intermediary parties who can make silly demands and make those demands stick, but the market is at least beginning to handle that task.

As for Kimmel himself, I see that his salary in recent times has come to $16 million a year. We needn't worry that he'll be missing any meals before he finds another gig.

My only real take-away from this teapot tempest is that Brendan Carr should probably be deported to Cuba or North Korea, where his views on government control of media would be a better fit.

Wordle 1553 Hint

Hint: I sat down to solve today's Wordle, but then I thought ... not right now.

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First Letter: L

Wordle 1552 Hint

Hint: Three types of today's Wordle: Steak, butter, and pocket.

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First Letter: K

Week 3 NFL Picks

Week 3 of the NFL season kicks off Thursday evening with an expected snoozer -- the ailing Miami Dolphins go up against the dominating Buffalo Bills. My picks:

• Buffalo Bills beat Miami Dolphins
• Green Bay Packers beat Cleveland Browns
• Indianapolis Colts beat Tennessee Titans
• Minnesota Vikings beat Cincinnati Bengals
• Pittsburgh Steelers beat New England Patriots
• Los Angeles Rams beat Philadelphia Eagles*
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat New York Jets
• Washington Commanders beat Las Vegas Raiders
• Atlanta Falcons beat Carolina Panthers
• Jacksonville Jaguars beat Houston Texans*
• Los Angeles Chargers beat Denver Broncos
• Seattle Seahawks beat New Orleans Saints
• Dallas Cowboys beat Chicago Bears
• San Francisco 49ers beat Arizona Cardinals
• Kansas City Chiefs beat New York Giants
• Detroit Lions beat Baltimore Ravens*

"Upset" picks -- which means outcomes that go against the majority picks among those playing ESPN's Pigskin Pick'em game as of the time I make my picks-- are marked with asterisks.

If I change any picks, it will before the game in question kicks off and I will clearly mark changes as changes in updates to this post.

If you'd like to play too, here's an invite link (so far as I know I don't get anything out of it except a "leaderboard" of me and everyone I invite so we can compete for bragging rights).

Call Me Jude

Facebook prediction about me (absence of apostrophe in the original):

youll certainly fade into obscurity very quickly

My thoughts on the subject: I've been obscure  (in the clearly intended sense of "not famous or acclaimed") my entire life, so no fading required.

On the other hand, I do sometimes aspire to, at least, notoriety.

"Being notorious is not the same as being famous, but it’s better than being anonymous." -- Robert Stacy McCain

"Notoriety wasn't as good as fame, but was heaps better than obscurity." -- Anathema Device in Good Omens, by Terry Pratchett and Neil Gaiman

Week 2 NFL Results

My picks, labeled green for correct, red for incorrect:

• Washington Commanders beat Green Bay Packers*
• Jacksonville Jaguars beat Cincinnati Bengals*
• Dallas Cowboys beat New York Giants
• Detroit Lions beat Chicago Bears
• Los Angeles Rams beat Tennessee Titans
• Miami Dolphins beat New England Patriots*
• San Francisco 49ers beat New Orleans Saints
• Buffalo Bills beat New York Jets
• Seattle Seahawks beat Pittsburgh Steelers*
• Baltimore Ravens beat Cleveland Browns
• Denver Broncos beat Indianapolis Colts
• Arizona Cardinals beat Carolina Panthers
• Kansas City Chiefs beat Philadelphia Eagles*
• Minnesota Vikings beat Atlanta Falcons
• Houston Texans beat Tampa Bay Buccaneers*
• Los Angeles Chargers beat Las Vegas Raiders

Nine right, seven wrong. I predicted six upsets, and only one of them (Seahawks v. Steelers) panned out. Not a great week, but anything over 50% at this point in the season is more than I'm expecting of myself, for the simple reason that I didn't keep up with things in the off-season and only had really two material opinions (that the Steelers were stupid for going with Aaron Rodgers and that it would cost them; and that the Chiefs shouldn't have cut Carson Steele and that it might cost them).

I'm only at the 48.2nd percentile among players of ESPN's Pigskin Pick'em game. I may start doing a little more research and see if I can improve on that. Or maybe not.  I think my interest in the NFL may be winding down. A poor season for the Chiefs, if that happens, will probably kill it entirely. We'll see.

Wordle 1551 Hint

Hint: Per Tim the Enchanter, death awaited with nasty, big, pointy ones.

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First Letter: T

Anyone Use a Projector As Their TV?

We've got a pretty big, though somewhat older, heavy, and space-consuming 55-inch TV.

When we buy a house, I'm thinking of switching to a projector, providing there's good wall space for a big picture. In fact, I just saw today that Roku offers a projector with its own streaming setup built in (not an affiliate link and not on my "wish list"), which is nice because Roku is what we already use. And it will project a screen as large as 150 inches at 1080p. Built-in 10-watt Dolby sound, or we could set up other audio if we wanted. Instead of a big, bulky device on the wall, we'd have a small device on a coffee table or whatever.

Do any of you use a projector as your television? If so, do you like it or not, and why?

This is far from the first priority if/when we move, but seeing a review of that device made me think of it.

Just Sayin' ...

 

"It Can't Happen Here," Witchcraft Edition

From The Independent:

Two men in Zambia have been handed two-year prison sentences with hard labour after being found guilty of plotting to assassinate the country's president through witchcraft.

The Zambian and Mozambican nationals were convicted last week under a colonial-era witchcraft statute. A court determined they possessed various charms, including a live chameleon, an animal tail, and a dozen bottles of concoctions. These items were reportedly intended to cast a fatal spell on President Hakainde Hichilema.

Ha-ha! Funny Africa story! Those primitives and their hijinks!

BUT!

US Code Title 18, §1751, makes it illegal to kill, attempt to kill, or conspire to kill the president of the United States.

Suppose some law enforcement agency conducted a search on the abode of one or more people the regime really wanted to get on something, and found a cloth effigy of the president of the United States stuffed with pins or something similar.

Want to bet money that some prosecutor wouldn't develop a sudden craving for a ham sandwich and try to convince a grand jury that the intent was there and that the overt act being presumably ineffectual was irrelevant to the matter? It might not work, but prosecutors dig grandstanding whether it really accomplishes anything or not.

Wordle 1550 Hint

Hint: He's the main character in Clifford Odets's first play, but he never appears on the stage.

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First Letter: L

Stop Whining About the "Tush Push," Chiefs Fans

Every time the Philadelphia Eagles win a close game -- or win a game on close plays -- in which the Eagles use the "tush push," I hear calls (usually from fans of the losing team) to ban the play.

Sometimes, as with the Eagles' beatdown of the Kansas City Chiefs yesterday, those calls are accompanied by claims that e.g. replays showed false starts by the Eagles' offense when that was the play.

Last things first:

Yes, if there are actual fouls in a play, it's the referees' job to detect those fouls and flag the play.

But the possibility that a foul could occur during a particular play doesn't have anything to do with whether that kind of play should be banned in the NFL's rules. There are no otherwise legal plays in NFL football in which it's impossible for a foul to occur.

The "tush push" was one of several tactics (and several Kansas City fails) that helped the Eagles win the game. Might it have been the decisive factor? Who cares? In any close game you can pick out a moment or three which, had they gone the other way, might have altered the outcome.

The Eagles are a damn good football team -- usually, and especially over the last few seasons. If they couldn't use the "tush push," they'd find other ways to make first downs, score points, and win games. Including, probably, yesterday's game.

Nor do the Eagles have a monopoly on the "tush push." Other teams are allowed to use it, and some have tried (with less success than the Eagles). In some ways, using it or defending against it are just resource questions:

1. Does it seem potentially key enough to the offense to build an offensive line that can pull it off, or is the team's money and time better spent on other things? The Eagles decided the former, and they've clearly invested in the right O-line players, and in the right amount of practice time, to prove that decision correct. Other teams' mileage may vary.
2. Does it seem potentially threatening enough to the defense to spend a lot of time and money developing better defenses against, or does the fact that you only have to worry about it when your opponent is the Eagles and they're inches from the first down or touchdown mark mean that you put your time and money into keeping them (and any other opponent) from getting to the place where it's useful?

I can think of one rule change that might be a good idea regarding the play right now, and that would be to allow "challenge flags" to be thrown against gains on the basis of false starts/offsides fouls, as they can be on some other plays. Let the defending team's coach say "this needs top-level video review because I think that member of the O-line moved too early -- and I'm willing to bet a time-out on it."

As for the play itself, the only case I could see for banning it would be if  a bunch of teams start using it and it proves uniformly impossible to defend against, unbalancing gameplay by basically guaranteeing "short yardage" conversions. But we're not there yet. So far, it's just a matter of the Eagles having found something that works for them much of the time, at least right now, and their opponents not, at least yet, finding something that counters it reliably.

The same thing could be said of Bill Walsh's "West Coast Offense" in the 1980s and 1990s, which involved replacing the 49ers' run game with a "short pass" strategy for matriculating the ball down the field, powering them to several Super Bowls. Eventually, other offenses adopted, and other defenses adapted to, that. Should screens and checkdowns have been banned just because they worked?

We've Been House-Hunting ...

... and I think we may make an offer this week.

We initially started looking at 1) mostly rural, 2) mobile homes and cinder-block homes (plus a log home), 3) mostly 20 years old or newer for mobiles, 50 years old or newer for "real houses," 4) west of Gainesville, Florida in Levy county.

The home we may make an offer on is a 1) small-town, 2) standard wooden frame house, 3) 104 years old, 4) east of Gainesville but still in Alachua County (fortunately outside of the freakishly high-priced Gainesville Regional Utilities area).

It's not a Victorian type "chocolate box" or anything like that, but it's got nice large rooms with very high ceilings (having been built before the age of air conditioning), a large, lovely screeened-in front porch, and a fairly large fenced lot with lots of live oaks.

It clearly became a hippie/bohemian lair at some point (a tile mosaic on the front step advises one to "BREATHE," etc.), and based on the seller's possessions still inside still is, but that kind of suits us and it's been well-kept/improved. The original bathroom still has what I assume is the original "claw-foot" bathtub. A rear addition to the house (looks like it was built after the turn of this century) includes a more "modern" bathroom with a nice shower.

Other than it needing an exterior paint job, there just wasn't much wrong with it. Central air/heat, fairly new wood stove and (no longer used) fireplace, roof looked good. Various Internet options, including cable and possibly fiber. No HOA, and from what I can tell, the little town isn't one of those with a bunch of nosy people letting you know if your grass is 6.1" high and supposed to be no taller than 6" high.

There's a very good chance that the house we buy will be the house Tamara and I grow old and die in, and there's not really much not to love about this one.

While I would kind of prefer to live about 10 miles from any "civilization," on about 10 heavily wooded (okay, in Florida, jungle) acres, this place is within easy walking distance of a small business district, a plus for us aging people who may need to give up our cars and motorcycles in 25 years or so. Since it's in town, we wouldn't have to worry about needing a new well or septic tank.

The last time the place got really plastered by hurricane action was in 1928, and those trees all looked healthy (and most of them looked about as old as the house).

I don't know if I'm as in love with it as Tamara, but I could definitely be OK living there.

Wordle 1549 Hint

Hint: Where you should move when there's nothing to see here.

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First Letter: A

Wordle 1548 Hint

Hint: Trying to solve today' Wordle? Things are gonna get loud.

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First Letter: N

Wordle 1547 Hint

Hint: In the history of  daily Wordle puzzles, this one is literally the low point.

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First Letter: N

The Bike Has Its Name ...

... and it has its name on it.

Something I Don't Understand About Hoplophobes

I always found it very weird and stupid that Florida's unconstitutional victim disarmament ("gun control") laws provided for concealed carry (with a permit until recently, now no permit required), but banned open carry.

On Wednesday, a state appeals court noticed that the open carry ban is unconstitional. That's a definite improvement, as is the availability of the "stand your ground" defense if you have to make use of your firearm. We still have the evil "red flag" thing, and the prohibition on adults between 18 and 21 purchasing guns, etc. but stuff seems to be mostly moving in the right direction.

I've already seen a couple of social media posts from Florida hoplophobes about how "scary" the idea of people walking around with visible firearms is to them.

I don't get that.

If you suffer from an irrational fear of guns, knowing who's carrying means you can flee in terror and go find a safe space to suck your thumb in.

If you suffer from an irrational fear of guns, not knowing who's carrying, but knowing there's a significant likelihood that several of the 100 people within a few aisles of you at Walmart have pistols inside their jackets, in their purses, etc. seems like it should put you in constant fight or flight (most likely flight) mode.

Wordle 1546 Hint

Hint: Three things that might do today's Wordle: Your head, your heart, and Gristle.

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First Letter: T

Charlie Kirk Was A Good Sport. Comedy Central's Decisionmakers Are Cowards.

Charlie Kirk talking to Fox News about the South Park episode parodying him:

I'm excited to watch it because, look, we as conservatives need to be able to take a joke, right? We shouldn't take ourselves so seriously ... that's what it's all about, being in public life and, you know, making a difference. And I'm gonna have a good spirit about it. I'll watch it. I'm going to laugh at it ...

Per The Arizona Republic:

In the wake of the death of conservative media personality Charlie Kirk, Comedy Central pulled the rerun of the "South Park" episode "Got A Nut" in which Cartman imitates Kirk. ... In its off weeks, Comedy Central has re-aired Season 27's previous episodes in chronological order. Those still hooked up to cable hoping to catch the rerun saw Episode 2 replaced with Episode 1 of the most current season.

I Finally Found An Area In Which I Am Pro-State!

Solid-state, that is.

Ducati just introduced a motorcycle that uses a solid-state lithium metal battery.

More power and storage in less space. Faster charging. Longer-lasting. Less likely to explode and set everything around it on fire.

In the area of personal vehicles, I went from a bicycle to an electric bicycle because my knees just couldn't handle pedaling 100+ miles per week anymore. Then I went to an internal combustion engine scooter, then a motorcycle, because if I was going to ride a motorized vehicle I wanted more speed, more range, and the ability to refuel in minutes, not hours.

I've been watching the electric motorcycle market for some time. Not closely, but checking in every now and then. At the moment, they're expensive and while there are available ranges of 100-250 miles, and while they can handle highway speeds, their batteries require several hours to recharge.

Prices will come down as production/sales scale up, but unless you're just using the bike for commuting and short runs to town, what good is it? If I'm traveling from Gainesville to Miami, I don't want my "gas stop" to take eight hours in the middle of a five-hour ride. Even with my small-tank bike, I can make that trip with two or three five-minute gas stops.

The Ducati bike is just a race prototype, but that company tends to go from track to street pretty quickly. So hopefully within the next year or two we'll start seeing fast, long-range, quick-charging electric motorcycles on the market. And a couple of years after that, we'll start seeing cheap fast, long-range, quick-charging electric motorcycles on the market.

Will I get one? Eventually, I suspect. I've grown to love the sound of a motorcycle engine, but I like the reliability equation of a bike with fewer moving/breakable/maintenance-requiring parts. The price will have to be right, but that's just a question of how much longer I live.

OK, It's Been Long Enough

Hot takes are usually defective, so when something like yesterday's assassination takes place I try to make myself give it at least a little time before speculating in a lot of detail. Or at least speculating in a lot of detail on this blog -- on social media, I'm fine with throwing around hypotheses.

Less than a day certainly isn't a lot of time, but it's starting to have been enough time for a certain amount of reasonable speculation.

Yesterday on X, Hector Roos shared a post from Laura Loomer.

Loomer: "This was a professional hit job. Maybe even a foreign funded hit job ..."

Roos: "You know in your heart she's right about this."

Me: "If it was a professional hit job it wasn't a very good one. Any Marine with decent basic marksmanship training can hit a stationary human target at 200 meters easily, and without a scope. And do so center mass, not in the neck."

Roos: "The getaway with no real suspects is more the indicator. Not the shot."

Me: "I'm trying not to get ahead of the known facts. But if it WAS a professional hit, my suspect list would start with 'people who want other people talking about something, anything other than the Epstein files.'"

Roos: "Yes, cui bono."

All of that was more than 10 hours ago.

As of now, there are still, at least so far as the public knows, no suspects in custody.

So I'm starting to think that Loomer and Roos may be correct.

And if they're correct, there's a good chance I'm correct.

Cui bono?

Charlie Kirk instantly became better-known than ever before.

His ideas -- not all of which, btw, were terrible -- instantly got a "martyrdom" boost.

Donald Trump instantly got a whole new bag of fodder for designating enemies to be crushed.

And MAGA instantly started talking about something other than the Epstein files.

If those were the goals of the assassin and/or whoever might have been behind the assassin ...

If there were any other political goals involved, it's an own goal for the assassin and/or the assassin's team.

If it was just some lone nut who hears voices or whatever, I guess we'll just have ask said lone nut when and if he or she is captured.

Wordle 1545 Hint

Hint: Older, but not yet fully retired, prison killer.

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First Letter: C

Apparently Everyone's Supposed to Have a Hot Take, So ...

I oppose anyone getting shot for saying things the shooter doesn't like -- or things I don't like.

In fact, I oppose anyone getting shot unless the shooter is acting in self-defense or defense of innocent others.

If you don't oppose those things, go fuck yourself.

Week 2 NFL Picks

 Week 1 left me with more information, but I don't know if I'm on top of this thing yet. My picks:

• Washington Commanders beat Green Bay Packers*
• Jacksonville Jaguars beat Cincinnati Bengals*
• Dallas Cowboys beat New York Giants
• Detroit Lions beat Chicago Bears
• Los Angeles Rams beat Tennessee Titans
• Miami Dolphins beat New England Patriots*
• San Francisco 49ers beat New Orleans Saints
• Buffalo Bills beat New York Jets
• Seattle Seahawks beat Pittsburgh Steelers*
• Baltimore Ravens beat Cleveland Browns
• Denver Broncos beat Indianapolis Colts
• Arizona Cardinals beat Carolina Panthers
• Kansas City Chiefs beat Philadelphia Eagles*
• Minnesota Vikings beat Atlanta Falcons
• Houston Texans beat Tampa Bay Buccaneers*
• Los Angeles Chargers beat Las Vegas Raiders

"Upset" picks -- which means outcomes that go against the majority picks among those playing ESPN's Pigskin Pick'em game as of the time I make my picks-- are marked with asterisks. And there are six of them this week. I've got my reasons.

If I change any picks, I'll do so before the game in question kicks off and I will clearly mark changes as changes in updates to this post.

If you'd like to play too, here's an invite link (so far as I know I don't get anything out of it except a "leaderboard" of me and everyone I invite so we can compete for bragging rights).

Lies, Damned Lies, and (Government) Statistics

Erick Erickson:

Yesterday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced a downward revision in jobs created between March of 2024 and March of 2025. The decrease was 911,000 jobs. In other words, in 2024, the government over-estimated the numbers of jobs created by 911,000.

Well, no.

We don't -- can't -- know what the real numbers are.

Just like we didn't -- couldn't -- know what the real numbers were when Donald Trump fired Bureau of Labor Statistics chief Erika McEntarfer for publishing numbers that made him look bad at the beginning of August.

Maybe McEntarfer cooked the numbers to make Trump look bad, maybe not, but Trump looked bad and so McEntarfer had to go.

As I wrote in the above-linked column:

The job of the commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics is to make the current administration look good, even if that requires putting lipstick on a pig.

Now, all of a sudden, the Bureau of Labor Statistics is publishing new numbers for precisely the period that lets Trump blame Joe Biden for every bit of negative economic news and perception in recent past, the present, and for some indeterminate stretch into the future.

Coincidence, or just a convenient ex post facto lipstick removal operation to please/assist the boss?

My impression is that the economy wasn't doing as well as Biden claimed in 2024, and that it's not doing as well as Trump claims now. Could I be wrong? Sure. But I don't treat BLS claims as objective evidence on the question.

Wordle 1544 Hint

Hint: Demeanor as conveyed by facial expression. Photo hint:

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First Letter: P

Week 1 NFL Results

My picks, labeled green for correct, red for incorrect:

• Philadelphia Eagles beat Dallas Cowboys
• Kansas City Chiefs beat Los Angeles Chargers
• Atlanta Falcons beat Tampa Bay Buccaneers*
• Cincinnati Bengals beat Cleveland Browns
• Miami Dolphins beat Indianapolis Colts
• Las Vegas Raiders beat New England Patriots*
• Arizona Cardinals beat New Orleans Saints
• Pittsburgh Steelers beat New York Jets
• Washington Commanders beat New York Giants
• Jacksonville Jaguars beat Carolina Panthers
• Denver Broncos beat Tennessee Titans
• San Francisco 49ers beat Seattle Seahawks
• Detroit Lions beat Green Bay Packers
• Houston Texans beat Los Angeles Rams*
• Baltimore Ravens beat Buffalo Bills*
• Minnesota Vikings beat Chicago Bears

Ten right, six wrong. Not terrible, but only one of my upset picks (Raiders v. Patriots) panned out, and I only performed in the 41st percentile of players in ESPN's "Pigskin Pick'em" game.

What did I learn?

Well, the Eagles and the Steelers were less formidable than I expected. The Eagles only bested the Cowboys by four points, and the Steelers only beat the Jets by two.

Of course, when making my picks, I wasn't really considering the fact that the Steelers went with worn-out has-been Aaron Rodgers at quarterback instead of signing a quality player. I just said "oh, the Jets? Unless they're playing the Panthers that outcome is predictable." If you're only coming up two points on the Jets, you're already looking rough for the rest of the season.

But I expected the Eagles to end their game with 14 points or more on the Cowboys. This was the Super Bowl champion team playing a team that went out in last year's wild card playoff round.

The Dolphins and Lions both shit the bed contrary to expectations (77% had the Dolphins picked to beat the Colts and 72% had the Lions whipping Green Bay).

Game one does not the season make, and I kicked off my season picks without a lot of study. I'll be putting a little more into it now as the likelihoods take more shape.

I Finally Found a Down Side to Yupp

I am very much a fan of Yupp (that is an affiliate link -- if you join, I get some Yupp credits).

It works like this: You ask Yupp a question, and it shows side-by-side responses from two different AI models. You choose which response you consider more useful, and say why (by clicking on pre-filled tags and optionally writing a comment), and you receive credits. You also consume credits by asking the question, but you spend less than you earn (I do anyway, but I don't do a lot of image generation queries, which cost more).

Now, in theory, you can exchange the credits for cash. At least some people can, and I appear to be one of those people.

If you are allowed to "cash out" credits, you get $1.00 per thousand.

I noticed a few minutes ago that I have 20,000+ credits accrued, and thought "hey, I wouldn't turn down ten bucks right now, and I'd still have 10,000+ credits left."

Then:

Since I see no point in spending 30 seconds, and giving them my payment information, just to get a whopping one dollar sent to PayPal, Venmo (which I don't even use) or a debit card, I guess I'll just let my credit balance grow (or, perhaps, spend more credits on generating images).

But it's still a very useful thing.

Wordle 1543 Hint

Hint: One discrete task within a magician's, or prostitute's, work routine.

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First Letter: T

I Am Not A Handwriting Expert ...

... nor have I viewed multiple provably authentic Donald Trump signatures from the time period around the creation of the  supposed "Epstein birthday book" note/drawing released by the US House Oversight Committee such that I could even pretend to be qualified to assess the similarities, differences, and likelihood or unlikelihood that it's authentic.

I think I'm qualified to at least ask a question, though, to those claiming it's obviously fake:

If Rupert Murdoch / the Wall Street Journal / someone trying to fool Rupert Murdoch and/or the Wall Street Journal wanted to fake up a Donald Trump document with a Donald Trump signature, why would they use a signature that just might plausibly be open to question on authenticity grounds, when there are probably, at a minimum, thousands of easily found, easily authenticated Donald Trump signatures from the time period in question that they could produce a convincing forgery of?

If I'm reading the various accounts correctly, this thing was provided to Congress -- and, previously, shown to WSJ's reporters -- by Epstein's own estate.

So, a hypothesis:

If the note/signature are fake, they weren't faked by WSJ recently. They were faked in 2003 by someone who wanted Jeffrey Epstein to believe that Donald Trump cared enough to contribute a note to the "birthday book," but didn't want that badly enough to do a really professional job. That might have been a Trump staffer trying to cover his boss's ass, or an Epstein associate who thought Epstein would be crushed if "The Donald" wasn't represented in the book, or whatever.

And if that's the case, Murdoch and WSJ are off the "defamation" hook -- they can just claim that they were fooled and that no "actual malice" was involved.

Wordle 1542 Hint

Hint: Cricket sound (the insect, not the sport).

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First Letter: C

Expensive, But Will It Stay That Way?

A long time ago (although I'm sure I was far from the first person to do so -- others have now written novels based on the premise), I started musing about the possibilities of "saving" Social Security by figuring out how to upload consciousnesses into virtual environments and offering retirees a choice:

1. Live for a few more years while continuing to receive Social Security and Medicare benefits and the standard of living they imply; or
2. Have their consciousnesses uploaded into a virtual environment and live forever in luxury.

The idea being that, at some point, the costs of uploading and consciousness/environmentment maintenance would be so much lower than the costs of meatspace benefits that the whole thing would go from the largest government expenditure to a rounding error in government budgets, as well as providing other benefits -- more living space, less traffic congestion, less scarcity of physical goods, etc. -- to those still living in meatspace.

At the moment, the cost equation seems to be nowhere near anything like a balance point.

According to DeepSeek V3.1 Thinking (via Yupp, and yes, that is an affiliate/referral link), the costs as of now, with "mature tech" (if it existed), would run anywhere from $5-10 million per "upload," and another $100k-$500k per year for maintainance, in perpetuity.

According to Microsoft CoPilot, the average per capita cost of Social Security and Medicare is about $35,000 per year, for an average varying from 16.1 years to 21.5 years depending on the age the recipient starts taking the benefits. Going with even the lowest age, that's less than $600k total.

So it seems unlikely that the tech will be here at all* before Social Security crashes and burns, and even more unlikely that the costs of deploying that tech could be brought down to a competitive level in that time frame.

Kind of a buzz-crusher for writers who want to set believable novels in that environment featuring characters with characteristics -- experience sets, social mores, etc. -- familiar to current readers.

But some good ones have tried and, IMO, succeeded. Neal Stephenson's Fall; or, Dodge in Hell (not an affiliate link) tries to deal realistically with the problems involved and tells an absorbing story. He's great at achieving reader suspension of disbelief in the darnedest scenarios.

And who knows? We've seen continuing acceleration of technological development ever since the beginnings of the Industrial Revolution. Lots of things are cheap now that were expensive a decade or three ago and non-existent before that. Maybe the cost projections are high by several orders of magnitude.

* When I say the tech won't be here "at all," I mean in form that is both reproducible and convincing. We're already seeing chatbots built from records of deceased individuals, and from what I hear those chatbots can inspire some perception of verisimilitude in the loved ones they "talk" with, but I don't think anyone believes those chatbots are the people they copy, or are able to "think," "feel," etc. as ... personalities. I suspect that within the next decade, some dead billionaire will have arranged an attempt at "upload," and that if it does seemingly succeed we'll be in for years of arguments, including legal arguments, over whether the resulting electronic entity is indeed "him" or "her."

Wordle 1541 Hint

Hint: Today's Wordle is to "tweeter" as bass is to "woofer."

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New to Wordle? You can play it at the New York Times, and here are some thoughts on how I go about solving each day's puzzle.

First Letter: T