Since I issued my "final prediction" on the outcome of this year's presidential election on September 21, I've been asked at least twice a week -- here on the blog and via other media, including in-person -- if I'm still standing behind that "final prediction" or would like to revise it.
The thing about "final predictions" is that they're, um, final. They could end up having been right or wrong, but they don't change.
If I turn out to have been wrong as to outcomes -- either overall or in specific states -- well, I'll have been wrong. The whole point, for me, is to test my predictive abilities against the facts I can gather, the predictive models I've settled on, etc., and see whether or not they work out. If they don't, then I will try to figure out why and do better next time. I'm not going to continually tweak my prediction until the very last moment to nearly guarantee being "right." That wouldn't be any fun at all.
If I'm right, I'll crow a little (and incrementally more the righter I was in detail).
If I'm wrong, I'll eat my crow in front of those who were right.
Do I have any inkling that I'm wrong?
On a state-by-state basis, I'm less sure about my predictions in some states (Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina) than others (Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania), but happy to just wait and see rather than try to back-track and change my "final prediction."
On an overall basis, with ~80 million votes already cast (according to the University of Florida Election Lab, 78,003,222 as of Friday morning and undoubtedly quite a few since then), I'm pretty comfortable with my "final prediction" that Kamala Harris will knock down more electoral votes than Donald Trump.
So yes, what I said was my last word will remain my last word until the results are announced, or at least very, very clear.
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