NFL Week 11 Picks

NFL Week 11 starts tomorrow night with the Washington Commanders playing the Philadelphia Eagles. Here are my picks, as entered in ESPN's "Pigskin Pick'em" game. "Upset" picks -- that is, picks where I'm in the minority as to who will win -- have asterisks next to them. Any changes to my initial picks will be made before kickoff and will be noted below.

• Washington Commanders beat Philadelphia Eagles*
• Green Bay Packers beat Chicago Bears
• Detroit Lions beat Jacksonville Jaguars
• Minnesota Vikings beat Tennessee Titans
• Miami Dolphins beat Las Vegas Raiders
• Los Angeles Rams beat New England Patriots
• New Orleans Saints beat Cleveland Browns
• Pittsburgh Steelers beat Baltimore Ravens*
• Indianapolis Colts beat New York Jets*
• Atlanta Falcons beat Denver Broncos
• San Francisco 49ers beat Seattle Seahawks
• Kansas City Chiefs beat Buffalo Bills*
• Cincinnati Bengals beat Los Angeles Chargers
• Houston Texans beat Dallas Cowboys

In theory, it's still possible for the Chargers (6-3), Broncos (5-5), or even Raiders (2-7) to catch up with the Kansas City Chiefs (9-0) and clinch the "bye week" before the divisional round. But I'm not seeing much likelihood of that.

The Chiefs are the underdogs for this week's match-up versus the Bills. It won't surprise me if they lose -- I picked them because I don't ever not pick the Chiefs to win -- but neither will it surprise me if they win. They've found good replacements for injured players, and now have some of those injured players filtering back in for possible play as early as this week.

I'm not one of those people who dares dream of a "perfect season" -- there's only been one in NFL history, the 1972 Dolphins -- but I do expect the Chiefs to have a very good November and December, and to "three-peat" on the Super Bowl. Part of that is blind faith, part of that is reasonable sober assessment.