Wake Me Up When September ...

ends? Begins? Is halfway over?

I just can't place much stock in headlines like "Shock Poll Shows Harris Opening Up Lead Against Trump" right now.

Not just because it's a national poll in an election where a handful of "swing states" will make the difference.

And not just because the difference is basically margin of error.

We're still very much in the honeymoons/bumps period of this election cycle -- three of the major parties' four national ticket candidates weren't even in the race a month ago. They're putting on their initial shows, and taking their initial pokes at each other.

Unless it's just been a blowout from the beginning, early August is way too early to expect polling to be very predictive. After mid-September, barring bizarre and unpredictable events, things settle down and the picture starts to become more clear. Which doesn't mean we know what will happen, especially if it's neck and neck.