Election 2024: Right Now, It's Just About The Bumps

Poll information from The Hill:

Former President Trump is narrowly leading Vice President Harris, the likely Democratic presidential nominee, in several battleground states, and the two are tied in Wisconsin, according to a new set of polls. 

The survey released by Emerson College Polling and The Hill on Thursday found Trump leading Harris by 5 points in Arizona, 49 percent to 44 percent; by 2 points in Georgia, 48 percent to 46 percent; by 1 point in Michigan, 46 percent to 45 percent; by 2 points in Pennsylvania, 48 percent to 46 percent; and tied with her at 47 percent in Wisconsin.

In every state except Arizona, the polling falls within the survey’s margin of error, meaning Trump and Harris could actually be tied in most of the battleground state match-ups. 

As you may have noticed, the Republican National Convention (w/VP reveal) was just last week, and Biden's resignation / Harris's move toward coronation came over the weekend.

This is a "bump" poll. It tells us more about immediate reaction to big events than it does about the long-haul prospects.

There doesn't seem to be much of a Trump "bump" from the convention at all ... but the Democrats got a definite "bump" with Biden's exit -- Harris is already doing better than Biden was doing before dropping out, by 3-5%, in all of those swing states.

Now we get to see whether she can build on that "bump" or not, and whether Trump finds a way to get his "inevitability" mojo going again or not.

IMHO, it's Harris who has to do all the work here, and do it well, to compete. All Trump has to do is avoid any truly massive fuck-ups and focus on getting out his vote.

BUT! It's a whole new campaign, and I don't expect to venture even tentative state-by-state predictions until at late August.