What If They're Giving Up ... Strategically?

I'm writing this before the Sunday morning news/talk shows, but I can confidently predict the big weekend topic: Whether Joe Biden's disastrous debate performance is the breaking point at which it's time for him to withdraw (or get withdrawn) from the presidential race, and if so who should replace him.

In the past, I've discounted the possibility that Kamala Harris would be the alternative pick, for two simple reasons:

1. Nobody seems to like her very much, and therefore
2. She wouldn't be able to beat Donald Trump in November

BUT!

What if the people in the DNC's smoke-filled rooms -- the people who would presumably facilitate a midstream change of horses -- have already decided that nobody can beat Donald Trump in November?

If that's the case, Harris might well be their pick of preference.

If Trump's going to win no matter who they pick, why not pick someone they don't want to run in 2028, and someone who ticks certain boxes that can be used to their party's benefit?

"America just couldn't bring itself to vote for a black woman -- THAT's why Trump won; oh, by the way, notice that WE nominated a black woman" would work well as a starting point for trying to get black voters and female voters more firmly back in the Democratic column four years from now.

I've mentioned prospective better replacements for Biden in the past (Democratic governors who've proven they can win in red or purple states), but it's pretty late in the game for that. A Jared Polis, Laura Kelly, or Andy Beshear would have to jump in without much prep or infrastructure. And if no one can beat Trump, none of them want to look like losers if they go for it four years from now.

Then there's Gavin Newsom, who likely also can't beat Trump, who likely also harbors 2028 ambitions, and who's a party insider darling.

The big Hail Mary people have been talking about for months is Michelle Obama, and I suppose they could go that way. I also think she'd beat Trump like a red-headed step-child. But the smoke-filled room types might not think so, and she might not be willing.

At the moment, assuming Biden goes out (and I think he probably will), the plan may just be to let Harris take the ass-whipping in November rather than risk the political futures of any of the better candidates.