Quoth David Von Drehle in the Washington Post on January 16, concerning the GOP's Iowa caucuses:
Huge margins among sparse populations gave Trump an appearance of invulnerability. But the closer the race drew to a population center -- someplace big enough to have a Costco or a Chick-fil-A -- the weaker he appeared. Haley, the preferred candidate of never-Trump Republicans and independent voters, actually beat the former president in multiple precincts of Des Moines, Iowa City, Ames, Cedar Rapids, Davenport and so on. Recent history teaches us that this year’s general election will be won or lost on precisely that ground, not in farm country but in the Chick-fil-A precincts. In these places, Trump’s turnout was unimpressive, bordering on weak.
When I look at the New York Times's precinct map for South Carolina's GOP primary yesterday, then goof around with Chick-fil-A's restaurant locator, concentrating on areas in South Carolina, it seems to me that the same phenomenon shows up.
So, here's the big question: Will suburban Republicans who preferred Haley to Trump in the primary turn out for Trump in November? Or will they stay home, or maybe even throw in with Biden? In swing states, the answer to that question could determine the outcome.
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