NFL Week 18 Picks

My NFL picks for this weekend, as posted at ESPN's Pigskin Pick'em site (straight picks, no spreads, etc., and I've created a group for those who would like to play along with me):

• Pittsburgh Steelers beat Baltimore Ravens
• Indianapolis Colts beat Houston Texans*
• Cleveland Browns beat Cincinnati Bengals
• Detroit Lions beat Minnesota Vikings
• Jacksonville Jaguars beat Tennessee Titans
• New England Patriots beat New York Jets*
• New Orleans Saints beat Atlanta Falcons
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat Carolina Panthers
• Chicago Bears beat Green Bay Packers*
• Denver Broncos beat Las Vegas Raiders*
• Philadelphia Eagles beat New York Giants
• Seattle Seahawks beat Arizona Cardinals
• Kansas City Chiefs beat Los Angeles Chargers
• San Francisco 49ers beat Los Angeles Rams
• Dallas Cowboys beat Washington Commanders
• Miami Dolphins beat Buffalo Bills*?

"Upset" picks -- that is, where my pick disagrees with the majority of Pigskin Pick'em players (as of the time I make my picks, but if I notice a change I'll mark that) -- are marked with asterisks. I've got either four or five upsets picked. There's a question mark with the asterisks on the Dolphins/Bills game because as of the time I made my picks, the picking field was tied 50-50. I suspect that will tilt to the Dolphins before game time, but if I make any changes to my picks (including re-classifying upsets), they will be made before the game in question kicks off, and specifically noted in an update to this post.

Thursday Morning Update: The Bills/Dolphins game predictions are still close enough that I'm leaving the "upset/question mark" on there -- 48% Dolphins, 52% Bills. It's also worth noting that this weekend could get really weird, simply because some top-shelf teams will be resting their big names. For example, the Chiefs, who've already cinched the AFC West, won't be putting Patrick Mahomes on the field, and I suspect they'll be resting Travis Kelce once he picks up the low double-digit yards he needs to have a 1,000-yard season. They don't want those guys injured, ore even tired, going into the playoffs. On the other hand, some of the not-so-top-shelf teams may do the same thing, both to try out some new guys or keep some old hand safe for next season.