Election 2024: Two States That Are Going to Deserve Attention

In 2020, Donald Trump carried North Carolina ... barely. He pulled 49.93% of the vote to Joe Biden's 48.59%.

The third party, independent, and write-in vote totaled 1.48% of the vote, more or less "covering the spread" between the two.

Trump over-performed versus his polling.  In fact, every poll listed at 538 that collected data into November had Biden up by anywhere from 1% to 6%.

So, what's it look like for 2024?

Well, almost every poll listed at 538 (the last one was in December) has Trump up on Biden by a substantial margin, even with RFK Jr.  included.

BUT!

At the moment, it looks like RFK Jr. will be in the race -- North Carolina is one of the states where he's creating a "We the People" party for ballot access purposes (apparently it's easier to get on the ballot there with a party than as an independent).

Another of those states is Texas, which Trump carried by a larger margin than North Carolina, but a smaller margin than you might guess -- 5.58%, with the third party and write-in vote coming in at 1.46%, nowhere near "covering the spread."

If Kennedy does fairly well in those states -- even, say, 5% -- and if the polling indicating that more of his votes come from people who would support Trump than Biden in a two-way contest without Kennedy in the mix is correct, then Democrats have an excellent shot at North Carolina's 15 electoral votes and at least a plausible shot at Texas's 38 electoral votes.