Presidential Election 2024: It Could Get Complicated

Here's how the 2020 presidential election worked out:

 

In 2024, if Joe Biden is the Democratic nominee, and if Donald Trump is the Republican nominee, and if the third party/independent effects on state outcomes are similar, I would expect the following states to become "swing states" to at least some degree:

• Arizona, which went Democratic in 2020, would become somewhat competitive for Republicans.
• Florida, which went Republican in 2020, would become somewhat competitive for Democrats.
• Georgia, which went Democratic in 2020, would become somewhat competitive for Republicans.
• North Carolina, which went Republican in 2020, would likely become very competitive for Democrats.
• Texas, which went Republican in 2020, would almost certainly go Republican again ... but the GOP will likely feel that it has to pour $5 in to hold it for every $1 the Democrats spend trying to take it, and that will affect outcomes in other states.

But large independent/third party effects, or the nominations possibly not going the way they look set to go, would put all kinds of flies in the above ointment.

In my opinion, if RFK Jr. runs a well-funded, well-conducted independent or third party (he's allegedly been in contact with Libertarian Party VIPs) campaign, and it's Biden/Trump on the major party side, Biden will likely win all of the states he won in 2020, plus North Carolina, Florida, and possibly even Texas ... unless RFK Jr.* is  assassinated after being denied Secret Service protection by the Biden administration, in which case there might be a significant number of Democrats who abandon Biden in disgust and vote for Cornel West.

* The "RFK Jr." there was originally the word "he," which could be read as referring to Biden, which would in turn produce an absurd meaning. Thanks to reader DRJ for pointing out the poor phrasing!