Week 21 NFL Picks

Well, it's down to four teams and two conference championships.

Last week there were four games (the divisional round of the post-season). I picked all four correctly for 200 points, for a to-date score of 427.2 points, putting me in the top 20% of players in the FiveThirtyEight NFL Forecasting Game.

FiveThirtyEight's model has outperformed me for the season in a big way (it has 1003.2 total points), but the model blew the Bengals/Bills game for a loss of 32 points and gave the winners it picked lower odds than me (I went 100% on every game) and only racked up 70.4 points for the week.

So, this week's picks:

AFC Championship: Kansas City Chiefs beat Cincinnati Bengals -- 100%
NFC Championship: San Francisco 49ers beat Philadelphia Eagles -- 100%*

The asterisk indicates that FiveThirtyEight's model disagrees with me -- it gives the Eagles a 59% chance of winning. And while we agree on the Chiefs/Bengals games, the model only gives KC a 58% chance.

I'm going 100% to either move up in the rankings or go out in a blaze of glory.

I agree that the Eagles are the obvious choice in the NFC championship, but I kinda believe the stars have aligned for rookie third-string quarterback Brock Purdy. The 49ers have one 12 straight games. Purdy has won all five NFL games he's played in ... ever. And the 49ers are a strong team all around, with a fantastic defense and getting even stronger on offense  with the acquisition of running back Christian McCaffrey from the Carolina Panthers in October (he's on the injured list, game status "unspecified," as are some others, but the Eagles' injury list is even bigger and includes several defensive ends). This pick is all feelz, but the feelz are strong.

OMG. Chiefs vs. Bengals. Again.

And four key KC players -- quarterback Patrick Mahomes, running back Jerick McKinnon with ankle sprains, outside linebacker Willie Gay Jr. with a toe injury, and wide receiver Mecole Hardman with a pelvis injury -- are on the injured list, all "unspecified" as to game status.

No matter how bad that ankle is, Mahomes will play if Andy Reid lets him play ... and Andy Reid will let him play. If his movement is limited, he'll likely be leaning harder than usual on running back Isiah Pacheco to move the ball on the ground, and tight end Travis Kelse to take short passes instead of spending time limping around going for the long bombs. Which, if that is clicking, will result in longer, more time-consuming drives and less time with Bengals QB Joe Burrow in possession of the ball on offense.

The Bengals have a longer injury list, but they're still formidable opponents and they seem to have the Chiefs' number, beating them three times in a row, this year (including last season's conference championship).

At least the Chiefs have home field advantage. Arrowhead Stadium may not quite be a twelfth player on the field, but it's a huge supportive crowd that's been known to trigger false starts by opponents with well-timed fan loudness (it's the loudest stadium in the NFL).

But this call is still a matter of feelz ... and faith. When it comes to football, the Chiefs are my religion.

I guess we'll see how it goes, right?