Week 6 NFL Picks

Well, I finally worked my way back into positive territory on FiveThirtyEight's NFL Forecasting Game with Week 5, for the first time since Week 1. Only 4.8 points, but at least there was a + instead of a - in front of that number. I picked 10 of 16 games correctly. Unfortunately, I "bet" bigger with my percentages on bad picks than I did on good ones (except, of course, for the Chiefs, who always get a 100% "bet" from me).

Week 6 picks:

Chicago Bears beat Washington Commanders -- 61%
Baltimore Ravens beat New York Giants -- 61%
Cincinnati Bengals beat New  Orleans Saints -- 61%
Jacksonville Jaguars beat Indianapolis Colts -- 53%*

Minnesota Vikings beat Miami Dolphins -- 71%
New England Patriots beat Cleveland Browns -- 61%*
Green Bay Packers beat New York Jets -- 61%
San Francisco 49ers beat Atlanta Falcons -- 73%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat Pittsburgh Steelers -- 79%
Seattle Seahawks beat Arizona Cardinals -- 53%*
Los Angeles Rams beat Carolina Panthers -- 67%
Kansas City Chiefs beat Buffalo Bills -- 100%**
Philadelphia Eagles beat Dallas Cowboys -- 91%
Los Angeles Chargers beat Denver Broncos -- 73%

A single asterisk indicates where my picks differ from the FiveThirtyEight model's. The lone double asterisk (on the Chiefs/Bills) game means that FiveThirtyEight didn't really make a pick, they rated it 50/50. Which I actually think is about right, but like I said, the Chiefs always get a 100% pick from me because REASONS. These picks are subject to change at any point prior to kickoffs. If there are changes, they'll show up (with days/times and reasons) in updates at the bottom of this post.

Now that I live in Florida, I've been looking for a Florida team to root for (when they're not playing the Chiefs). It's not going to be the Buccaneers as long as they have Tom Brady at quarterback. It's not that I don't respect Brady. But I don't like Brady. Can't really get my cheer on for him.

I was getting excited about the Dolphins until QB Tua Tagovailoa's concussion. Now backup QB Teddy Bridgewater is "questionable" with a concussion as well, and wide receiver Tyreek Hill is also listed as "questionable" for this weekend. So I think the Dolphins are looking at a bust of a season now ... but that they still might be building something big down in Miami. And if their third string QB, Skylar Thompson plays this weekend, gets it together and has a decent outing, he may find himself first or second string for someone in a trade that gets Miami some players or draft picks to continue building next year's team around Tua.

The Jacksonville Jaguars are obviously working hard on it as well. They mauled the  Chargers in Week 3 and played a credible game against the Eagles in Week 4. If they keep going in the direction they're going, they may be real contenders next year or in '24.

Speaking of third-string QBs, Bailey Zappe is why I'm liking the New England Patriots versus the Cleveland Browns this weekend.  Even if Mac Jones and Brian Hoyer are still out injured, Zappe seems to have the stuff to be competitive. When you come within a field goal of beating Aaron Rodgers and the Packers on your first regular season NFL outing ever, you're better than third string quality. If he doesn't move up with the Patriots, he's also likely to show up on some other team's first string soon.

Now that I've blessed you with all that wisdom, let's see how badly I bomb this weekend.