Week 5 NFL Picks

Week 4 was a very bad week for me -- I only predicted 7 of 16 games correctly and ended up with -1.2 points. Not quite the bloodbath that Week 3 was (-123.7 points), but still just no good. I'm only in the 22nd percentile on FiveThirtyEight's leaderboard. Much worse now that I've been over-thinking it instead of going with my gut like I did last season.

But hey, maybe I'll get better as the season goes on. And I'm kind of going back to my gut this week. Here are my Week 5 picks. My percentages will be different from FiveThirtyEight's model in pretty much every case, but a lot of the picks will be the same. Picks that aren't the same are marked with an asterisk.

Denver Broncos beat Indianapolis Colts -- 61%
Green Bay Packers beat New York Giants -- 71%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat Atlanta Falcons -- 91%
Minnesota Vikings beat Chicago Bears -- 67%
New England Patriots beat Detroit Lions -- 61%
Jacksonville Jaguars beat Houston Texans -- 91%
Cleveland Browns beat Los Angeles Chargers -- 59%*
Miami Dolphins beat New York Jets -- 79%
Buffalo Bills beat Pittsburgh Steelers -- 73%
New Orleans Saints beat Seattle Seahawks -- 71%
Tennessee Titans beat Washington Commanders -- 61%
San Francisco 48ers beat Carolina Panthers -- 61%
Dallas Cowboys beat Los Angeles Rams -- 53%*
Philadelphia Eagles beat Arizona Cardinals -- 79%
Cincinnati Bengals beat Baltimore Ravens -- 53%*
Kansas City Chiefs beat Las Vegas Raiders -- 100%

A few notes:

- Yes, Tua Tagovailoa is still out on concussion protocol, but Dolphins backup QB Teddy Bridgewater 1) is pretty damn good and 2) has played the Jets twice in his career and beat them both times. He's got some game time and practice time in to click with the team while Tua's been out, and I expect him to do well.

- Yes, the Patriots have not one but two quarterbacks out on the injured list, but their third-stringer, rookie Bailey Zappe, did pretty well versus the Packers last week. They lost, but it wasn't a massacre. Zappe will have had a week of full practice/integration time, I think he's going places, and the Patriots have also brought former QB Garrett Gilbert back to their practice squad for the third time. I'm really impressed with the Lions this year -- when I was growing up, Thanksgiving day always involved "who are we going to watch beat the Lions," and now they're looking like they're for real -- but I think that Pats will take them down.

- My Browns, Bengals, and Cowboys picks (upsets in terms of defying the FiveThirtyEight model) are all just "gotta feeling." They're the ones most subject to change if I get around to looking at injured lists, etc.

Any changes will be recorded here as updates, and any changes will be posted before the games start.

Update, 11am Thursday: No changes, but I'm looking at injury reports. In addition to Tom Brady's shoulder/finger boo-boo from last weekend's game against the Chiefs, the Buccaneers currently show tight end Cameron Brate in concussion protocol and four wide receivers with hamstring or knee injuries. No statuses for this weekend's game against the Falcons (who seem to have one running back out and one tight end "questionable"). I've still got the Bucs to win, but that could change if the Bucs are going to be missing a huge chunk of their offense.