The Dobbs Ruling's Effect on the November Midterms

Three important questions heading into any election:

1. What have you done for me lately?
2. What have you done to me lately?
3. What are you likely to do to or for me next?

The second and third questions are bigger turnout drivers than the first one.

Fox headline: "New poll: Only 15% of voters view abortion as most important midterm election issue, economy still top concern."

But of the 15% who consider it important -- or who maybe even constitute "single issue" voters, the "pro-life" voters just got what they wanted, while the "pro-choice" voters just got something they had taken away from them, and want it back.

Which means that more of the "pro-choice" voters are going to be more motivated to get out and vote.

Even if the effect is small on net in any direction, that direction this November "Democrat," and that will make the difference in some close races.

Among other things, it probably dooms the GOP's chances of taking control of the US Senate.

270 to Win still rates five states -- Arizona (currently Democratic), Georgia (currently Democratic), Nevada (currently Democratic), Pennsylvania (currently Republican), and Wisconsin (currently Republican) -- as "tossups."

Assuming the Republicans win all of their safe and "leaning" seats (and at least three of the "leaning" seats -- Ohio, Missouri, and Utah -- might get dicey for them), they need to win three of those five seats.

They're almost certainly going to lose both of the two seats they currently hold:

Ron Johnson in Wisconsin was already in trouble. Then this week he got (more) mired in the January 6 scandals, and now the Dobbs ruling will get out the vote for Democrats.

The seat in Pennsylvania is "open," but Democrats are pretty united around / motivated by lieutenant governor John Fetterman, Republicans are not particularly united around / motivated by Trump endorsee Mehmet Oz, and the Dobbs ruling just gave Fetterman a boost.

Mark Kelly was already on cruise control toward victory in Arizona, polling well versus any likely Republican opponent.

Which leaves Nevada and Georgia. Even if the Republicans take both those seats, they're right were they were before -- 49 seats. And I suspect they'll take only Georgia, if even that, knocking them down to 48 seats.