I'm Still Skeptical of "Generic Ballot" Polling's Predictive Utility

I explain why here.

But it's worth noting that when I wrote that post, the GOP was ahead of the Democrats on the "generic ballot" by seven points. As of now, one poll has that margin reduced to 2% and two others have the Democrats up by 2%.

I wouldn't use that to predict any particular race, or even the overall outcome, in this November's midterms. But it says to me that the possibility of a "red wave" may be much lower than most people seem to have been expecting since, oh, November of 2020.