Starting to Prep My Midterm Election Predictions

270 To Win is my usual source for initial "these races might be worth watching" information.

Of the 100 US Senate seats, 35 are up for grabs this year.

270 To Win has 22 of those seats marked "safe" -- Alaska, Alabama, Arkansas, Iowa, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, North Dakota, Oklahoma (both seats), South Carolina, South Dakota,  and Utah for the Republicans; California, Connecticut, Hawaii, Illinois, Maryland, New York, Oregon, and Vermont for the Democrats.

The first thing to notice there is the Republican advantage -- they've got 15 "safe" seats to the Democrats' seven. Every "safe" seat is a seat that isn't eating up a bunch of money from the party's national committee, Senatorial election committee, national PACs, etc. That money can pour into the contested seats.

Of the 12 non-"safe" seats:

• Three (Florida, Missouri, and Ohio) are marked "likely" Republican, and one (North Carolina) as "leaning" Republican.
• Two (Colorado and Washington) are marked "likely" Democratic, one (New Hampshire) "leaning" Democratic.
• Five (Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin) are marked as "toss-ups."

I'm not going to touch the "safe" states yet, but I'll be keeping an ear to the ground listening for anything that sounds like a sea change (how's that for mixed metaphorism?).

In the "likely" category:

• In Florida, the last poll shown at FiveThirtyEight had incumbent Republican Marco Rubio up 18 points versus US Representative Val Demings. Personally, I'd mark Rubio's seat "safe." Demings is pretty popular as Florida Democrats go, but otherwise the Democrats aren't sending their best into this election. Governor Ron DeSantis is likely to win re-election in a walk, and his coattails will save even some Republicans who might otherwise have been in trouble. Rubio's not in trouble and isn't likely to get in trouble.
• In Missouri, the only real hope the Democrats have is if the Republicans nominate former (resigned under a legal cloud) governor Eric Greitens. And even after his ex-wife accused him of abuse in divorce filings, he's still in the running. As of last week, a Trafalgar poll showed him in a close second place at 24% behind US Representative Vicky Hartzler 's 25%, and ahead of Attorney General Eric Schmitt at 22%.
• Ohio looks interesting. If JD Vance's endorsement by the disgraced former president boosts him to the nomination, it's looking like a tossup -- both likely Democratic nominees (US Representative Tim Ryan and former State Treasurer Amy Acton) were polling, as of last month, at 2-3% ahead of Vance and also neck and neck with State Treasurer Josh Mandel and Ohio GOP chair Jane Timken.
• My gut feeling is that the three "leans Democrat" states will continue to lean harder that way and be "safe" Democratic seats by November. But I haven't taken a hard look at them yet.

I'll get into those "leans Democrat" states, and the states that are already "tossups," in a later post, and also look at how many races each party has to win to keep, or take, the Senate majority. The takeaway for this post is that Missouri and Ohio could conceivably go from "leans Republican" to "tossup" status, and that could make the difference for control of the Senate.